Black voters in Georgia are unlikely to sway dramatically toward Republicans in the upcoming November election, a political expert says, but that doesn’t mean Democrats should rest on their laurels.
In a conversation Monday on “Politically Georgia,” Emory University political scientist Andra Gillespie broke down recent polling examining the favorability of Black voters toward President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
Black voters feel largely connected to the Democratic Party, and 77% of registered Black voters said they would support Biden over Trump in the 2024 presidential election, according to a Pew Research survey published in May.
“We haven’t seen anything that right now indicates that we’re seeing a realignment of Black voters away from the Democratic Party toward the Republican Party,” she said.
However, enthusiasm for Biden’s campaign among Black voters has waned, and Gillespie emphasized that the number of people who show up to vote will be key to determining the election results in Georgia.
“Turnout should be a perpetual concern,” she said.
It’s less of an issue about whether Biden receives 80% or 85% or 90% of support from Black voters, but rather whether Black people turn out at a rate commensurate with their percentage of the population.
“He’s going to get the lion’s share of the Black vote, but if turnout is anemic, it’s not going to be enough to help him out in battleground states (like Georgia),” Gillespie said.
Black voters, particularly young people, want to see Biden campaign in their communities “and not assume that just because you’re going to get the vast majority of Black voters in the state” that he doesn’t “have to be attentive to the issues.”
For many Black voters, those issues include concern about the Biden administration’s approach to Israel’s war against the militant group Hamas.
Ernie Suggs, who also joined “Politically Georgia” as a guest Monday, reported on Biden’s commencement address at Morehouse College and how the college’s president, David A. Thomas, responded to calls to rescind his invitation to Biden.
“He’s a very brash, confident man,” Suggs said, referring to Thomas. “But this incident shook him” because the Morehouse students “literally could have changed the course of this presidential election” over whether and how they staged a protest to Biden’s speech.
Biden, meanwhile, needed to gauge the value of putting himself in a position where he might face protest in order to reach out to the Black community, Suggs said.
“The president needs Georgia and the president needs Black men,” Suggs said.
Biden, Suggs said, had to consider the following: “How important is it for me to go to Georgia? To speak at Morehouse College, the symbol of Black male education, where I’m losing Black male voters? How important is it for me to come here?”
Ultimately, Suggs said, the graduation “went off without a hitch.”
Tuesday on “Politically Georgia”: Cody Hall, a political adviser to Gov. Brian Kemp, and former Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin will join the show to discuss Kemp’s potential next steps after serving out his term, plus a look at the history of the city’s water problems
