Two rising Georgia Democratic stars could go from allies to rivals in 2022, depending on how Republicans redraw the new congressional map. That’s because no matter how the lines are drawn during a legislative session that starts next week, U.S. Reps. Carolyn Bourdeaux and Lucy McBath will be in the political crosshairs of the Republican majority.

The two Democrats are among the most vulnerable in the nation after each flipped Republican-held House seats in the past two election cycles, and now state lawmakers are certain to reshape at least one of their districts to add more conservative voters — and potentially cripple their reelection chances.

If the new map makes Bourdeaux’s seat safer for Democrats, there’s a solid chance that McBath or another Democrat could challenge her in the primary, a prospect that some Georgia partisans are quietly expecting.

“The 7th District looks like it’s going to become a more progressive district, and Carolyn is setting herself up for a primary challenge if it becomes bluer,” said Nabilah Islam, a Democratic organizer who hasn’t closed the door on a fresh challenge to Bourdeaux after losing to her in the 2020 primary.

Both McBath and Bourdeaux have said they intend to run for reelection in 2022 regardless of how the boundaries are hashed out during the once-in-a-decade redistricting process. But their campaigns have been unwilling to discuss the possibility of a head-to-head matchup, saying such assumptions are premature with the contours still undecided.

Credit: Alyssa Pointer/Alyssa.Pointer@ajc.com

Credit: Alyssa Pointer/Alyssa.Pointer@ajc.com

Right now, the consensus among political observers is that McBath is the more likely target for Republicans.

The former flight attendant and breast cancer survivor became a nationally known gun control advocate after her teenage son was shot to death in Florida. She won an upset victory over Republican incumbent Karen Handel in 2018 to capture a seat that stretched from east Cobb County to north DeKalb County.

A proposed map by state Senate Republicans would add deeply Republican Forsyth County to her territory and shave off a reliably Democratic chunk of DeKalb, making it perilous for her 2022 chances. At the same time, the map would make Bourdeaux’s district significantly safer for Democrats by removing Forsyth, so it would be contained entirely within left-leaning Gwinnett County.

If McBath’s district becomes more conservative as expected, she would face a dilemma to stay in office: run in a district tilted heavily against her, seek a statewide post or jump into the contest against Bourdeaux.

Just in: The Georgia Senate is out with its draft of congressional districts, and this version makes Democratic Rep. @lucymcbath’s suburban district far more competitive — and shrinks Democratic @RepBourdeaux’s swing district to make it much safer for the incumbent. #gapol pic.twitter.com/2DyzzVLUML
— Greg Bluestein (@bluestein) September 27, 2021

Charles Bullock, a University of Georgia political scientist who wrote a book on redistricting, said the prospect reminded him of the scenario in 2001 when Democrats controlled the Georgia Legislature and forced a quartet of Republican U.S. House members to face each other in two races.

“It’s standard practice,” he said. “You enhance your side by taking out a player from another side.”

A reason for rivalry?

The two women campaigned together alongside national Democrats in 2018 when both set out to flip neighboring suburban Atlanta seats held by Republicans. Only McBath was successful, but Bourdeaux won two years later to fill the seat of retiring Republican U.S. Rep. Rob Woodall. Her victory made her the only Democrat to capture a Republican-held seat in the House in 2020.

Although McBath faced questions about her residency during the 2018 race, her powerful personal story won over suburban women. She is a reliable vote in Congress in support of liberal policies but also worked to widen her policy portfolio, even authoring a bill on services for veterans that then-President Donald Trump signed into law.

Credit: Nathan Posner for the AJC

Bourdeaux, who served as the Georgia Senate’s budget director before becoming a professor at Georgia State University, positioned herself as a more moderate voice, although she is also a reliable supporter of Democrats’ policies. She and others tried to force a vote on a $1.2 trillion infrastructure package separate from a larger social spending bill that Democrats are drafting, but they relented after liberals resisted.

That stance led to angry rebukes from some union leaders and left-leaning organizations who supported Bourdeaux’s campaign last year and said they felt betrayed. It’s hard to gauge, however, whether rank-and-file voters paid much attention to the move.

Behind the scenes, McBath’s allies are peppering activists in the area with reminders of Bourdeaux’s attempts to appeal to middle-of-the-road voters on budget issues. Such an approach could help her in a general election but make Bourdeaux more vulnerable in a competitive Democratic primary.

“A lot of progressive grassroots organizations are very disappointed with her stance on the budget reconciliation,” Islam said. “They feel very betrayed, and they don’t know if they can continue to trust her.”

Credit: TNS

Kelly Dittmar, the director of research at Rutgers University’s Center for American Women and Politics, said women in Congress are more likely to be elected in competitive districts and therefore more affected when the lines are redrawn.

What makes McBath and Bourdeaux unique is that they represent bordering competitive districts and both are relatively new to office, she said. That makes it less likely that one would stand down out of deference to — or fear of — the other.

When it comes to fundraising, McBath has an early edge. She collected $2.3 million from donors through the first nine months of 2021 and has $2 million in the bank to fund her reelection campaign. Bourdeaux raised $1.9 million during the same time period, ending with $1.7 million in cash on hand.

While the final maps won’t be ready for weeks, some see changes to McBath’s district as inevitable. Brenda Lopez Romero, the chairwoman of the Gwinnett County Democratic Party, said she won’t be “surprised at all” if McBath’s district is overhauled considerably.

“That’s what I’m expecting. Trying to make both those districts redder is tough to me, and it’s easier to move the lines on the 6th District,” said Romero, who was the runner-up to Bourdeaux in last year’s Democratic primary.

“There shouldn’t be any reason for a rivalry between McBath and Bourdeaux, but we also understand that’s part of the problem with having state legislators draw the redistricting maps,” she said. “That’s why we need fully independent commissions to draw the maps.”