When Vice President Kamala Harris makes her first visit to Atlanta on Tuesday as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, she’ll encounter a political landscape that’s been transformed by President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race just over a week ago.
Key Democrats are no longer despondent about their chances in November against former President Donald Trump. Republicans are promising renewed energy of their own. And Harris’ visit signals Georgia could be even more hotly contested than expected.
Throughout her visit, Harris will be surrounded by living symbols of her party’s breakthrough success in Georgia. She’ll be greeted by U.S. Sens. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, whose 2021 runoff victories helped secure Biden’s policy agenda in the Senate.
But she’ll also be reminded of Democratic limitations in Georgia, a state once so solidly Republican that presidential contenders didn’t bother to campaign here.
Among those expected to welcome the vice president is Stacey Abrams, who was twice unable to channel enthusiasm and energy around her campaigns for governor into a winning coalition.
And Harris will get a glimpse of the party’s potential reach. Former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, one of the most prominent Republicans to endorse Harris, has become a de facto spokesman for disaffected conservatives. He’s scheduled to be on hand during the Harris event.
Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com
Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com
The visit comes at a pivotal moment in her nascent presidential bid. Social media is exploding with sunny pro-Harris memes, and her campaign coffers are bursting with fresh donations. Aides report thousands of volunteers staffed dozens of Georgia events for Harris this weekend. More than 19,000 people have RSVPed to attend the Harris rally on Tuesday, spurred in part by word that rap star Megan Thee Stallion will perform.
But she is also facing escalating attacks from Trump and his allies, along with mounting pressure to pick a running mate before an Aug. 7 deadline.
In Georgia, Harris and her allies must fight to reassemble the fractious coalition of Black voters, independents, suburbanites and frustrated Republicans who propelled Biden’s narrow victory in Georgia in 2020.
And she must balance the tricky task of running for president on her shared record with Biden even while pushing to create her own policy platform that separates from the president’s agenda without conflicting with it.
Democrats are competing for Georgia with a vast campaign apparatus, boasting more than 170 staffers scattered throughout 24 offices. Harris spokesman Michael Tyler calls it the “largest in-state operation of any Democratic presidential campaign cycle ever.”
It’s fueled a guarded optimism that wasn’t there before. Gov. Roy Barnes, the last Democrat to hold Georgia’s highest office, acknowledged what few party leaders would say publicly a few weeks ago: The race in Georgia was tilting decisively toward Trump.
Hyosub Shin/AJC
Hyosub Shin/AJC
“Initially, because of all the angst, if I were betting that I’d have to say that Trump was going to win,” he said Monday on “Politically Georgia.” Then came Biden’s withdrawal and Republican struggles to blunt what they call the “Harris honeymoon.”
Now, Barnes said he’s confident that Harris has more than a “fighting chance” to keep Georgia in the blue column.
His advice to her strategists: focus on younger Georgians, “quit worrying about angry old white men” and contrast her background as a prosecutor with Trump’s legal troubles.
“Because who’s on the other side? Someone convicted of 34 felonies and still has felony cases pending here in Georgia.”
A presidential ‘pathway’
Senior Republicans also say Georgia is suddenly more competitive, but for different reasons.
Georgia GOP Chair Josh McKoon has crisscrossed the state for months warning conservatives not to get complacent, and he headlined a weekend event that drew more than 200 volunteers who trained to be poll watchers.
He said Harris’ ascension to the top of the ticket has “narrowed the electoral map considerably” by shifting the focus from the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to other battlegrounds.
Trump and his newly christened running mate, U.S. Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, are set to headline events this week in other competitive states: Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
Hyosub Shin/AJC
Hyosub Shin/AJC
“While President Biden had a plausible path to victory without Georgia, it seems virtually impossible for a Harris win without our state,” McKoon said. “So I would expect her to campaign in Georgia to try to establish a pathway.”
Polls throughout the past year have largely showed Trump with a lead over Biden, though the few that have been published since Harris became the presumptive nominee indicate the race has tightened.
Brian Robinson, a veteran GOP strategist who was one of then-Gov. Nathan Deal’s chief advisers, said Harris’ success might hinge on a factor that emerged in many of the polls: lagging Democratic support among Black men.
“I’m open-minded until I see data on that, but it’s my hunch this doesn’t move the needle with those voters,” he said. “I think it’s status quo.”
The 30-30 formula
At the center of Harris’ campaign argument in Georgia is support for expanded abortion rights, which she hopes will both galvanize party loyalists and middle-of-the-road voters two years after Trump’s appointees to the U.S. Supreme Court helped reverse Roe v. Wade.
Sonja Adcock, an Oconee County Democratic organizer, said she’s confident Harris will put forward a plan to reinstate abortion protections “so we don’t have to live in fear of basic human rights being taken away every transfer of power from one president to the next.”
She speaks of Harris as many stalwart supporters do — in lofty terms, as a ray of hope who can “turn the tide” against Trump. But veteran Democrats still warn the vice president faces an uphill battle.
Rick Dent was a top adviser to then-Gov. Zell Miller and other party officials, carving out a reputation as an unvarnished truth-teller. He said Democrats would be foolish to grow overconfident by metrics that indicate soaring Black turnout in Georgia.
“The math never changes. It’s the 30-30 rule — the only way a Democrat can win in the state of Georgia,” Dent said.
That rule posits that Democrats must win 30% of the white vote and Black voters must make up at least 30% of the overall turnout for the party to have a solid chance of prevailing.
“You have to energize the African American vote,” Dent said. “But if you don’t hit those thresholds of white voters, you’re not going to win Georgia.”
Harris’ campaign said it’s battling for voters on several fronts and has opened offices in often-overlooked parts of the state, including rural Jenkins and Washington counties.
Tyler, her spokesman, noted that Tuesday’s journey will mark 15 times that Harris has traveled to Georgia since becoming vice president. There will be more visits to come in the next few weeks, he added.
“We know the next 99 days will be a marathon at a sprint’s pace,” he said.
