The past few weeks have seen an interesting dynamic between polls and gambling markets.
Republican Donald Trump generally holds small polling leads that are often within the margin of error over Democrat Kamala Harris. Meanwhile, gamblers, who are likely aware of the polls, are placing bolder bets on a Trump win in Georgia.
Of the surveys that were released since last week’s poll update, Trump led three, Harris led one and one was tied.
An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll found Trump with a 4 percentage-point edge over Harris, which was just outside of the margin for error. That poll had Trump’s margin growing 1 percentage point from the previous poll. But 8% of the voters were undecided, which is high and a sign that the race may not be decided.
Just two days before the AJC poll was completed, The Washington Post wrapped up its poll. The Post found Harris with a 4 percentage point lead, which was within that poll’s margin of error.
The three other polls released in the past week either showed Trump with a 1 percentage point edge or the race tied. Those polls changed very little compared with their previous polls.
The past 10 days of polling shows Trump ahead in six polls, Harris leading one and two ties. The average gives Trump a 49% to 47% edge.
One of the six major election forecasters changed Georgia’s rating from toss-up. Fivethirtyeight now has the state labeled lean Republican. Its simulation shows Trump winning the state 61 out of 100 times and Harris winning the other 39.
The gambling markets have moved more sharply to Trump than the polls and forecasters. The price for a share predicting a Republican win on Predictit rose 5 cents in the past week to 70 cents. A share predicting a Democratic win fell 5 cents to 34 cents. On Polymarket, prices broke toward Trump. A user betting on Trump would win about $14 for wagering $10, compared with $33 on a $10 wager for Harris.
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