Another week of polling shows a narrow presidential election in Georgia.
There were three polls released this week. One showed a tie between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, and two gave Trump an edge of 1 percentage point. Basically the race remains a coin flip.
Two polls showed Trump with a lower level of support compared with those organizations’ previous polls from September. A poll from Emerson and The Hill had Trump with a 1 percentage point edge, compared with 3 points in mid-September. This poll also asks undecided voters, who they’re leaning toward. The small number of undecideds broke toward Harris. When combined with voters more sure of their choice, the poll shows a tied race.
Trafalgar also found Trump with a 1-point edge at 46% to 45%, which was consistent with its previous poll. In 2016, Trafalgar predicted a Trump victory based on shy voters who were hesitant to reveal their preference for him. The organization was less accurate in following cycles.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph, has the race tied, which marks a gain of 2 percentage points for Harris from the previous survey.
The previous 10 days of polling shows Trump leading two polls by 1 percentage point and two ties. The polling average has Trump leading by about 1 percentage point, which is well within the margin of error.
Gamblers continue to be more bullish on Trump than the experts and polls. The price for a share predicting a Republican win on Predictit climbed 7 cents in the past week to 68 cents. A share predicting a Democratic win fell 6 cents to 36 cents. On Polymarket, prices favor Trump but have remained stable since last week. A user betting on Trump would win about $16 for wagering $10, compared with $25 on a $10 wager for Harris.
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