Is Georgia’s transformation into one of the nation’s political battlegrounds part of a shift into permanent swing-state status, or are the Democratic gains over the past few election cycles more fluke than long-term flip?

The hard-fought battle for Georgia’s 16 Electoral College votes next week could help settle the questions that have shaped state politics over the past decade and kept voters here in the spotlight since Donald Trump’s closer-than-expected win in 2016.

Since that vote, when Trump carried the state by 5 percentage points but lost a trio of suburban GOP strongholds, Georgians have weathered one political drama after another as the state became one of the nation’s most perplexing, and intriguing, electoral arenas.

The bruising 2018 campaign for governor between Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams. Joe Biden’s razor-tight victory in Georgia in 2020. The twin Democratic U.S. Senate runoff victories weeks later. And the split-ticket decisions rendered by voters who reelected Kemp and U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock in 2022.

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Now, Georgians are set to play a major role again, this time as decision-makers in one of seven states that could determine the White House race. It’s become a familiar responsibility for Georgians after years of neglect.

Consider that in 2016, neither Trump nor Democratic nominee Hillary Rodham Clinton bothered to hold campaign stops in Georgia in the months before the election. Now, Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have scheduled multiple visits to the state for the last week of the campaign.

Tied with North Carolina as the second-biggest battleground prize on the map — behind only Pennsylvania with its 19 electoral votes — the GOP path to victory narrows considerably if Trump loses Georgia for the second time in a row.

Harris has stepped up her efforts to land what allies hope could be a knockout blow here. A win here would mark the first back-to-back Democratic victories in a Georgia presidential race since Jimmy Carter was on the ballot.

Most polling averages show Trump with a slight edge over Harris in Georgia, though senior Republicans say the race could break either way. With record in-person turnout that holds promise for each campaign, aides to both rivals expect Georgia to go down to the wire.

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The neck-and-neck race has helped make the Sun Belt almost as coveted as the Rust Belt. Both campaigns have devoted more resources to the “blue wall” trio of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that Trump carried in 2016 and Biden flipped back in 2020.

But Georgians have had plenty of attention. Beyond the spate of visits, both campaigns and allies have spent more than $300 million on ads targeting Georgia voters since January 2023. Even the most enthusiastic voter can’t help but feel fatigued after this cycle.

“There’s an excitement for it to be over,” said Michael O’Leary of the University of Georgia College Republicans. “I can’t wait for it to be over, too, but we also just have to take it all in, enjoy it while it’s here.”

‘Whatever it takes’

More than half the state’s active voters have cast their ballots, with high turnout in both deep-red areas and denser, more Democratic-friendly counties.

Trump’s strategy in Georgia revolves around turning out enough voters from his mostly white, evangelical base to swamp the share of independent and swing voters who have gravitated toward Democrats since his first run for president eight years ago.

His campaign is convinced that relying on dependable Republicans and motivating likely Republicans who often skip elections will be enough to fuel a victory.

“If you care about lowering gas prices, if you care about lowering grocery prices, if you care about public safety and securing our border, the choice is clear,” said Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, a close ally of the GOP nominee. “Donald Trump needs to be our next president.”

Trump has been bolstered by an uneasy alliance with Gov. Brian Kemp after years of attacking the governor because he refused Trump’s demand to overturn his defeat in 2020. After Trump briefly reignited the infighting with Kemp in August, a tenuous truce has taken root.

“Republicans in a lot of ways have been the bigger people and more willing to let bygones be bygones and just do whatever it takes to win,” Kemp said while discussing his endorsement of Trump during an interview. “That’s been my commitment for well over a year now.”

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The former president’s campaign has particularly focused on appealing to men, especially younger ones, with hypermasculine messages. The effort helped open a massive edge of 59% to 28% over Harris among male voters in the final Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released last week.

The flip side of the gender gap is female voters, who backed Harris in the poll by a margin of 55% to 37%. Her campaign has appealed to many of those Georgians with an emphasis on abortion rights and warnings about more “chaos” in another Trump administration.

It’s part of a kitchen-sink strategy that takes aim at liberal and Black voters who form the party’s base while also reaching out to former Republicans who helped propel Biden and U.S. Sens. Jon Ossoff and Warnock to office.

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Ossoff told the AJC he sees the race not in conventional political terms but, instead, as a contest over Trump-driven “division, bigotry and insults” and Democratic-led coalition building.

“This election is more profound than a choice between Democrats and Republicans,” he said. “It’s a choice about what kind of a country we are and what we stand for.”

‘Pins and needles’

Both campaigns have employed dramatically different strategies to turn out votes.

Harris is following a more conventional approach that relies on more than 200 paid staffers in dozens of offices across the state, along with legions of door-knockers and phone-bankers to back her.

Trump’s campaign relies heavily on the Georgia GOP and outside groups to marshal Republican forces in a more loosely organized, decentralized fashion. That means groups founded by Kemp and former U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler play an outsize role.

And the outcome will help shape the next round of elections — a 2026 contest when Ossoff stands for a second term and every statewide constitutional office is up for grabs.

But for now, jittery voters are bracing for an unpredictable November. Allison Haralson, a Covington retiree, said she won’t be surprised if Trump scores a blowout win.

“There’s far more support than it seems,” she said.

Melissa Kilpatrick of East Point was likewise optimistic about Harris’ chances.

“I think we will be on pins and needles the night of the election,” she said. “But I was very happy Georgia came through in the last election — and confident we’ll do it again.”