Former President Donald Trump holds a slight lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Georgia in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released Sunday, just hours after President Joe Biden ended his presidential campaign.
The poll of likely Georgia voters, which was conducted before Biden dropped out of the contest and endorsed his vice president, shows Trump leading Harris 51% to 46% in a head-to-head matchup, just outside the margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. One percent of voters surveyed said they’d opt for other presidential candidates, while an additional 2% said they were undecided.
The survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs between July 9 and 18 — a volatile time in the presidential contest. It came as some senior Democrats intensified their push to drive the 81-year-old Biden from the race and also encompassed parts of the Republican National Convention and the July 13 assassination attempt on Trump at a Pennsylvania rally.
Polling numbers could shift now that Biden has stepped aside — and some leading Democrats, including former President Bill Clinton, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and influential South Carolina U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn have already endorsed Harris.
Trey Hood, the UGA political scientist who oversaw the survey, noted that when he polled the Trump v. Harris question it was a hypothetical. Sunday’s news, he said, “certainly resets things.”
“There’s going to be many decisions made by different people that are going to interact with one another, and who knows what the effects of all those decisions are going to be,” he said. “We don’t have enough information, including a definitive Democratic candidate, yet to really say a whole lot.”
Still, the poll suggests that Harris has ground to make up in Georgia, a crucial political battleground state that Biden narrowly carried four years ago, delivering the state to the Democrats for the first time in nearly three decades. As vice president, she has paid multiple visits to the state this year, shoring up support among Black voters.
Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC
Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC
The AJC poll found that independents, a crucial voting bloc in Georgia, sided with Trump by 11 percentage points. And a majority of respondents, nearly 53%, said they viewed Harris unfavorably, compared with 42% who said they had a favorable impression of her. Only 5% of those surveyed said they didn’t have an opinion. (More than 57% of respondents viewed Biden unfavorably, compared with 41% who saw him favorably.)
On the other hand, Harris polled higher than Biden among Democrats and Black voters, who represent the party’s base. (Nearly 92% of Democrats polled said they backed Harris over Trump, compared with Biden’s 86%. Almost 91% of Black respondents said they’d pick Harris rather than Trump, compared with Biden’s 82% share of the vote.)
Among the Black voters who say they will support the vice president is Vela McClam Mitchell of Smyrna.
“She has qualifications. She understands the people. She understands the problems that we are all encountering, and I really think that she has put in the work,” the 69-year-old said. “I’m certain she will be an excellent president.”
Voter enthusiasm
The AJC poll found that the race between Trump and Biden was closer than it was with Harris. In a head-to-head matchup against the current president, 48% of Georgia voters polled said they’d back Trump, compared with 45% who would vote for Biden and 3% for another candidate. When the pollsters included independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Libertarian Chase Oliver by name, the race moved into a statistical tie between Trump and Biden, with 45% of respondents picking Trump and 42% Biden.
Among Democrats, Harris had almost 85% favorability. But there are some within the party who suggested they aren’t yet enthusiastic about her candidacy.
Danise Stewart of Roswell would have voted for Biden this fall but wasn’t excited about it. But the 62-year-old white woman, who works in sales and marketing, said she was “not really happy” with the job Harris has done as vice president.
“I think she should have been down at the border more and done more,” Stewart said. “But I think she’s going to be energized now. And if she can turn back to her tough prosecutor self, I really think that it would do well for the Democrats.”
The poll, meanwhile, highlighted a key factor that’s buoyed Trump in Georgia. Nearly three-quarters of Republicans said they’re “very enthusiastic” about Trump’s chances. Hood, the UGA pollster, said that if Democrats can’t bridge that enthusiasm gap, “that could be enough to put Trump over the finish line in Georgia in this close contest.”
Among all voters surveyed, 50% said they viewed Trump unfavorably, and 48% said they had a favorable impression.
John Lamie, a disabled veteran from Quitman, has voted for Trump twice and says he will likely do so again this fall. Even though “Trump may not be the best person in the world,” Lamie doesn’t think Democrats will have enough time to adequately introduce a candidate to voters in time.
“I’m only going to have, what, four months to get to know them? You need to know someone intimately and know what they stand for before voting for them for president,” the Republican said.
With Biden out of the race, Trump now becomes the country’s oldest-ever presidential nominee. But fewer than one-third of Georgia voters said they were concerned about the 78-year-old’s age, with more than 90% of Republicans answering that they’re “not too concerned” or “not concerned at all.” Meanwhile, two-thirds of likely Georgia voters said they were concerned that Biden, 81, was “too old” to be president, including 45% of Democrats.
The poll shows that Georgians are divided over the other leading political figures. About one-quarter of Georgia voters surveyed have a unfavorable impression of U.S. Sen. JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, while one-fifth give him positive reviews. The rest — about 54% — don’t know enough to have an impression.
And voters are split over Kennedy, with about 40% of respondents holding a positive view of him, 40% having a negative view and the remainder undecided. He polled highest among Republicans, independents and younger voters, while a plurality of Democrats and liberal voters see him unfavorably.
Trump is winning more than one-third of independent voters and has 90% Republican backing, while Kennedy’s strongest bloc of support is among liberals, 14% of whom are supporting him.
Historic candidate
Voters in Georgia felt mixed about the historic nature of a potential Harris nomination to lead the Democratic Party: She would be the first Black woman and first Asian American to serve as the party’s choice for president.
To Portia Kendrick, 54, that’s not enough to garner her support. Although Kendrick is a Black woman, she said she would not vote for Harris.
”The presidency is about more than race. It’s about who is the best person to lead our country,” the McDonough resident said. “I don’t think she is up for that task.”
Jermaine Bunch, 43, said he would support Harris “all the way.”
“She’s been doing a great job in her role as VP,” Bunch said. “I know she would do great as the president.”
But as a Black man, he thinks he may stand alone in that view and worries the rest of the country would not be ready to embrace her candidacy.
”We have come a long way from our civil rights era,” he said. “But since the election of President Obama, America has opened up a wound.”
“There are many unresolved issues,” about race and gender, he said. He’s concerned that members of Congress would not give her the “leeway to be able to lead this nation.”
”She would literally have to jump through hoops in order to prove herself worthy to so many people,” said Bunch, who lives in DeKalb County.
Staff writer Maya T. Prabhu contributed to this article.
