Donald Trump’s victory in Georgia and impending return to the White House has set off a chain reaction that’s influencing policy debates under the Gold Dome and reshaping the next vote for statewide offices.

It starts with Gov. Brian Kemp, scrambling his political calculations as he prepares for the final leg of his second term with an emboldened GOP legislative majority and a relationship currently on the upswing with Trump, a longtime frenemy.

The president-elect’s dominant win — and the possibility that his GOP heir comes from within the party’s MAGA ranks — could mean Kemp’s more mainstream Republican brand will be better suited to a 2026 challenge against Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff.

And Ossoff, who could be the top target of Senate Republicans in the midterm, is making moves to prepare for a tough reelection. He’s part of a messy effort to oust U.S. Rep. Nikema Williams as chair of the state Democratic Party that burst into public this week.

ExploreTrump picks former Georgia Congressman Doug Collins to run Veterans Affairs

With Trump’s high-level appointments playing out, the state’s political landscape could get more jumbled as Trump fills out his administration. Former U.S. Rep. Doug Collins was tapped Thursday to oversee veterans affairs. And ex-U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler, a cochair of the president-elect’s inaugural committee, could get a coveted job.

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Trump’s victory also brings drawbacks for his allies, who hope to trade on his popularity with the party’s base but also acknowledge that in two years his more polarizing policies could wear thin with midterm voters.

Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, a Republican who is expected to compete to succeed a term-limited Kemp, already sounds like a general election candidate even though there’s sure to be a fierce battle for his party’s nomination.

ExploreRedistricting plans come true: Republican-drawn maps kept them in power in Georgia

In a post-election interview on The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s “Politically Georgia” podcast, Jones predicted Republicans would stick to pocketbook issues next year and said he was undecided on Medicaid expansion, a proposal that state GOP leaders have long rejected but is broadly popular among voters.

“It was a long campaign season, but at the end of the day it came down to kitchen-table issues — it was all about gas, groceries, inflation and the cost of living,” Jones said. “I’m glad it’s behind us, but now it’s time to move forward.”

Georgia Democrats are still licking their wounds after a devastating cycle. Trump gained ground since 2020 in more than 130 of Georgia’s 159 counties, and Republicans limited Democratic pickups in swing legislative races after court-ordered redistricting.

Some Democratic Party leaders worry that Trump’s win heralds a return to a conservative-dominated status quo four years after they celebrated Joe Biden’s narrow victory in Georgia, which made him the first Democrat to carry the state in nearly three decades.

That Democratic angst fueled calls for Williams to step down as the party’s chairwoman long before her second term in the post ends in 2027.

Prominent donors, activists and officials have publicly accused her of inept organization — including wasting party resources — and lackluster fundraising. Williams told her friends that Ossoff was among the ringleaders of the group, privately pressing her to step down.

ExploreDonald Trump’s cabinet pick has history of stirring things up in Georgia

Credit: Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com

‘Soul searching’

The infighting is a symptom of bigger problems haunting Democrats over their approach and messaging. Republicans have capitalized on an electorate that still leans to the right, meaning they can win state elections by focusing on turning out their conservative base.

Democrats must follow a broader strategy of energizing liberal voters while also appealing to independents and Republicans. That coalition propelled Biden, Ossoff and U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock to victories the past two election cycles. But it fell apart in 2024.

“The Democratic challenges will exist until Jesus returns because we try to message to everyone. And Republicans don’t have to,” said Democratic state Rep. Derrick Jackson, who waged a losing campaign to lead his party’s House caucus.

He said that shouldn’t change the party’s focus on expanding Medicaid, preserving abortion rights and supporting economic incentives for working-class Georgians. But Democrats, he added, must “tailor that message without it sounding like a dissertation.”

ExploreTrump’s high-stakes strategy worked. Flipping this Georgia county is proof

Jason Carter, the party’s 2014 gubernatorial nominee, said Democrats particularly struggled to connect with voters worried about inflation and the job market — which polls regularly showed was the foremost concern of most Georgians.

“When someone says prices are too high,” Carter said, “the answer can’t be ‘You don’t understand, this is the best economy ever.’ ”

The silver lining for Democrats is their hope that the party will be able to capitalize on blowback to Trump’s second White House stint by again marshaling the grassroots energy from infuriated liberal voters as they did during his first administration.

That groundswell helped Democrats firm their control of Atlanta’s populous suburbs and set the stage for the party’s gains.

Back then, Stacey Abrams emerged as the party’s leading voice of Trump resistance, and her run for governor in 2018 helped prove that Democrats can compete in Georgia by embracing liberal policies once scorned by statewide party candidates.

Her defeat in a rematch against Kemp in 2022 showed the limits of that playbook and reinforced the party’s reliance on split-ticket voters who gravitated away from Abrams and toward Warnock, a fellow Democrat who won his Senate reelection bid.

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

It’s unclear whether Abrams makes a third bid at the governor’s race. But she may face fierce competition if she does, as prominent Democrats including outgoing DeKalb County Chief Executive Michael Thurmond and U.S. Rep. Lucy McBath openly contemplate a run.

“If the data shows Stacey should run, then great. But if our data shows we need to rethink the process, we need to be direct about that. We all have to look at the mirror and do some soul searching,” said Daniel Blackman, a former statewide Democratic candidate for the Public Service Commission who was a Biden appointee to a federal environmental post.

State Rep. Teri Anulewicz, an east Cobb County Democrat who lost a reelection bid to a far-left challenger, said her party could use a fresh start at the top of the ticket running alongside Ossoff in two years.

“We need to look at a new wave of people.”

ExploreDemocrat Carolyn Hugley chosen as Georgia House minority leader

‘No. 1 target’

Ossoff was one of the new faces who came out of the party’s 2016 defeat, waging an unsuccessful “make Trump furious” campaign for an open U.S. House seat before eventually winning election to the U.S. Senate as a consensus-friendly Democrat willing to cross party lines.

As Warnock did during his reelection bid in 2022, Ossoff is likely to focus on the message that he’s willing to work with Republicans where they can find common ground — and fight GOP policies when it undermines Democrats’ steadfast principles.

Senior Republicans see Ossoff as a formidable candidate who will have no trouble raising resources he needs to run in Georgia. And they hope to avoid a messy intraparty fight over who will face him.

“The Senate map in 2026 requires Republicans to play more defense, and Georgia will probably be the No. 1 target for a pickup,” Georgia GOP Chair Josh McKoon said. “I think we’ll have a great candidate, and I hope we won’t have a very competitive primary.”

Credit: Ryon Horne/AJC

The array of Republicans who could seek premier offices is too long to list, but it includes statewide officials such as Jones, Attorney General Chris Carr and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who have each warily kept an eye on each other.

ExploreOnce fierce Georgia rivals could be teammates in Donald Trump’s second term

But it all starts with Kemp, who is expected to take his time deciding whether to seek the U.S. Senate seat or sit out the midterm.

He exits the 2024 election cycle in a strengthened position, having forged a tentative peace with Trump — though there’s no telling if it will last — while playing an important role in flipping Georgia back to the GOP column.

But his primary focus was boosting down-ticket Republican legislative candidates in swing suburban districts where Trump was expected to struggle. Four of the six GOP candidates in those tight races won, preserving the hefty Republican edge in the Legislature.

That initiative sent a signal that Kemp’s robust political network will factor into 2026 races whether he’s on the ballot or not. But many are expecting a furious push by Senate Republicans — and possibly Trump, too — to compel him to go up against Ossoff.

“The governor has earned anything that he wants to do. If he wants to think about running for Senate, wait and run for president, step out in the private sector — all options are on the table,” said Stephen Lawson, a GOP consultant who is close to Kemp.

“But there’s going to be a massive push to get him to step into the Senate race.”