Capitol Recap: Estimates rise for Georgia’s voter turnout

A roundup of news about government and politics in the Peach State
DeKalb County residents head into the future Stonecrest City Hall to vote early. By midweek, more than 3.4 million Georgians had cast ballots ahead of Tuesday's election, raising estimates for total turnout to top 6 million. (Rebecca Wright for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution)

Credit: Rebecca Wright

Credit: Rebecca Wright

DeKalb County residents head into the future Stonecrest City Hall to vote early. By midweek, more than 3.4 million Georgians had cast ballots ahead of Tuesday's election, raising estimates for total turnout to top 6 million. (Rebecca Wright for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution)

As many as 6 million could now cast ballots in 2020 election

Estimates for Georgia’s turnout in Tuesday’s election have hovered around 5 million for much of this year, but a surge in voting in advance, either through early voting or absentee ballots, is now pushing those projections as high as 6 million.

By midweek, more than 3.4 million votes had already been cast, and that was with two days — likely the two busiest days — still left for early voting. (For a sense of scale, total turnout in 2016 was 4.1 million voters.)

What does this early rush to the polls mean? People have their theories.

GeorgiaVotes.com reports that about one-quarter of the early voters didn’t cast ballots in the 2016 election. The numbers are similar for those who didn’t vote in 2018′s midterm elections.

“In general, the voting population tends to get younger and less white as early voting goes along, with the former being much more pronounced than the latter,” said Ryan Anderson with GeorgiaVotes.

That would tend to favor Democrats, although Republicans will likely account for a majority of voters on Election Day, itself.

Knowing this, state Democrats plopped down more than $500,000 for radio ads to push voters to the polls early.

But guess what: Early voting proved to be popular in some deeply conservative areas, too.

In Dawson County, more ballots had been cast by Wednesday than in all of 2016.

Some other Republican-leaning counties — Bryan, Butts, Forsyth, Greene and Rabun — did almost as well.

Election supervisors have to be thrilled with the advanced turnout, meaning it should ease the crush on Tuesday.

But Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger warned that “there will be lines.” He offered an explanation that also hinted at his plans for lunch.

“This is just like at noontime when everyone decides to go to their favorite chicken sandwich place and they wonder, 'Why do we have all these lines?” he said. “Just think about that kind of rush.”

U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler and her husband, Intercontinental Exchange Chief Executive Jeff Sprecher, center, have loaned or given $31 million this year to support Republicans in and out of Georgia in this year's election. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

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Loeffler, husband drop $31 million, so far, on GOP campaigns

When this election is over, U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler could be nursing a serious case of writer’s cramp, given the amount of checks she has signed this campaign season.

Loeffler and her husband, Intercontinental Exchange Chief Executive Jeff Sprecher, have loaned or given more than $31 million, so far, to help finance GOP races for the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House and the White House.

Of that, $23 million went into Loeffler’s campaign account, giving her more cash to spend in the special election for her seat than the other 20 candidates combined. Loeffler is currently the third-largest self-funder in the country this election cycle, trailing only billionaires and former presidential hopefuls Michael Bloomberg and Tom Steyer, and she will have a chance to spend even more if she makes it to a Jan. 5 runoff.

Loeffler’s ability to fund her own campaign — she promised to spend at least $20 million in pursuit of reelection — was counted as among her assets when Gov. Brian Kemp named her to the Senate over the objections of President Donald Trump, as well as other Republicans who backed U.S. Rep. Doug Collins for the job.

But she’s also doing her share to fund other campaigns.

Loeffler has given $291,300 to the Trump Victory PAC and $248,500 to the Republican National Committee.

She has also contributed the maximum $2,800 to the campaigns of 16 of her 22 fellow Senate Republicans up for reelection, including Georgia’s own David Perdue. She’s done the same for some U.S. House candidates, including Angela Stanton-King, the Republican running in Georgia’s 5th Congressional District

Sprecher, whose company owns the New York Stock Exchange, has been handing out big money on his own. He donated an additional $7.9 million to GOP campaigns and PACs, including $5.5 million to Georgia United Victory, a PAC spending heavily against Collins in Loeffler’s race.

He also gave $1 million to the America First PAC supporting Trump, $717,000 to the National Senatorial Campaign Committee, $290,300 to Trump Victory, $258,500 to the RNC and contributions of $10,000 to 14 state Republican parties.

Not that there’s anything wrong with that. It’s all been within the limits set by law, something that Larry Nobel, a former general counsel of the Federal Election Commission pointed out.

Said Nobel: “It reminds me of the line, ‘It’s not what’s illegal that’s scandalous, it’s what’s legal.’ ”

Outside groups spend big in 6th and 7th districts

Georgia’s 6th and 7th congressional districts have turned into some pricey real estate, with political parties and special-interest groups spending almost $25 million to woo voters in the northern outskirts of Atlanta.

That’s more than what the candidates, themselves, have spent.

The districts were the scenes of tight races two years ago, when Democrat Lucy McBath unseated Republican Karen Handel in the 6th by just a smidge over 1 percentage point, and Republican U.S. Rep. Rob Woodall beat Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux in the 7th by 419 votes.

This time around, the 6th and 7th could be testing grounds, Emory University political science professor Andra Gillespie said.

“These suburban districts are kind of the new frontlines in politics,” she said, “especially with groups that are interested in either trying to preserve and grow a Democratic House majority or more Republican-leaning groups that are interested in trying to stem losses and maybe make a few gains in these places.”

This year, McBath and Handel are locked in a rematch in the 6th. Bourdeaux is running again in the 7th, but instead of Woodall, who chose to retire, she is facing Rich McCormick.

Outside groups are spending big money on behalf of all four, but Federal Election Commission data shows nearly half that money is coming from the political parties themselves.

The Democratic Party’s congressional campaign arm has been the biggest spender, contributing roughly $7.9 million. House Majority PAC, a separate political committee controlled by Democratic leaders in the House, has spent an additional $3.5 million.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has spent $1.8 million on ads aimed at McBath. The party does not appear to have spent any money on the 7th District contest, although groups aligned with GOP leaders have.

Pitching in to support McCormick are the Congressional Leadership Fund, $4.3 million; the Club for Growth, $2.9 million; Americans For Prosperity Action, $255,247; the House Freedom Fund, $191,954; SEAL PAC, $78,000; the American College of Emergency Physicians, $30,000; Independent Women’s Voice, $11,681; and FreedomWorks For America, $7,500.

Bourdeaux’s benefactors include Planned Parenthood, $41,223; and the Asian American Advocacy Fund $1,021.

Helping McBath are Everytown for Gun Safety, which has spent $1.8 million; Black PAC, $205,779; the National Education Association, $162,266; the Humane Society Legislative Fund, $44,832; and the Collective Super PAC, $7,692.

The National Right to Life Victory Fund has divided $982 between Handel and McCormick.

McBath and Bourdeaux have shared $524,292 from WOMEN VOTE! and $172,300 from the Congressional Black Caucus PAC.

Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan's fundraising committee, Advance Georgia, has raised $1.5 million with the aim of protecting Republicans' 35-21 majority in the state Senate, the chamber Duncan heads. Much of the money came from entities interested in either shaping legislation or gaining state contracts. (ALYSSA POINTER/ALYSSA.POINTER@AJC.COM)

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Lobbyists, contractors kick in to protect GOP majority

Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan has been successful in raising funds to protect Republicans' 35-21 majority in the state Senate, the chamber he heads.

His fundraising committee, Advance Georgia, has taken in about $1.5 million — most of it coming from lobby groups and companies interested in either helping shape legislation or draw state contracts.

Big donors include a lobby group for Realtors ($60,000), Georgia Power ($50,000) and highway contractors ($40,000), according to a review of disclosures by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

$1,500 cheapens endorsement in Cobb DA race

When former Democratic state Rep. Alisha Thomas Morgan last month backed the reelection of Republican Joyette Holmes as district attorney for Cobb County, it was offered up as an example of “cross party” support.

They’re calling it other things now that Holmes' latest campaign disclosure revealed that Morgan was on the payroll. The campaign paid Morgan $750 in August and $750 again on Oct. 2.

Holmes' Democratic opponent, Flynn Broady Jr., had something to say about that.

“The explicit intention of an endorsement is to give credibility to a candidate without favor,” Broady said. “If (Holmes) isn’t going to campaign with honesty and integrity, how can we expect her to keep a fair, balanced and honest court system?”

Speaker David Ralston could face a challenge to remain leader of the Georgia House from another Republican during the state's next legislative session.

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Clark plans challenge for speakership

State Rep. David Clark, R-Buford, has a vision beyond Tuesday’s election — occupying the big chair in the Georgia House.

Clark announced on Facebook that, if he wins reelection, he will challenge House Speaker David Ralston, a fellow Republican from Blue Ridge, for leadership of the chamber.

The two have a history.

Clark was one of 10 lawmakers who sponsored a measure in 2019 calling on Ralston to resign after an investigation by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Channel 2 Action News found that the speaker had frequently delayed criminal court cases by claiming the dates interfered with his legislative duties.

Ralston has said he did nothing wrong.

A few months after that push for Ralston to step down, Clark found that he was no longer chairman of the House Interstate Cooperation Committee and said he was the victim of political retaliation.

Ralston declined to respond to questions about Clark’s plan to challenge him, saying he was busy working to ensure Republican House members win reelection Tuesday.

Candidates, endorsements, etc.:

— Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden threw his support behind two U.S. Senate hopefuls. The former vice president backed Jon Ossoff in his race against Republican incumbent David Perdue, and he also endorsed Raphael Warnock in the special election for the seat occupied by Republican Kelly Loeffler.

— Marjorie Taylor Greene, a promoter of the discredited QAnon theory and the Republican running without opposition in the 14th Congressional District, received a formal embrace from the national party, the Daily Beast reports, through a $5,000 donation from the GOP’s congressional campaign committee.

— U.S. Rep. Cedric Richmond, D-La., who serves as co-chair of Joe Biden’s presidential campaign, is backing former Morehouse College President Robert Franklin in the 5th District special election runoff. Franklin’s opponent in the race is former Atlanta City Councilman Kwanza Hall. The winner in the Dec. 1 contest will fill the late U.S. Rep. John Lewis’ seat through Jan. 2.

— Chamblee Mayor Eric Clarkson and state Insurance Commissioner John King have endorsed former U.S. Rep. Karen Handel in her 6th Congressional District race against Democratic U.S. Rep. Lucy McBath.