Analysis: Brian Kemp plots steps that could shape his political future

The Georgia governor is trying to forge his own path through ‘Trump-y land’ while avoiding pitfalls of others who have faced the former president’s wrath
Gov. Brian Kemp will be busy throughout this year's campaign season. In addition to going to the Republican National Convention, he plans to help prominent candidates in other states build their war chests while also staging fundraisers for his federal super PAC in California, Florida and Texas. The governor also will use his influence and donations to help Republicans win back in Georgia. (Arvin Temkar / arvin.temkar@ajc.com)

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Gov. Brian Kemp will be busy throughout this year's campaign season. In addition to going to the Republican National Convention, he plans to help prominent candidates in other states build their war chests while also staging fundraisers for his federal super PAC in California, Florida and Texas. The governor also will use his influence and donations to help Republicans win back in Georgia. (Arvin Temkar / arvin.temkar@ajc.com)

Gov. Brian Kemp is no die-hard Donald Trump supporter after clashing with the former president for much of the past three years. And he’s steered clear of increasingly MAGA-fied Georgia GOP events since 2022.

So why is he headed to the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in July?

The second-term governor doesn’t have a formal speaking slot during the four-day event, and he may not get one. But he aims to continue to build his influence, both within and without MAGA world, as he contemplates whether to challenge Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff in 2026 or run for president in 2028.

As Politico first reported, that means filling Kemp’s schedule with fundraisers for politicians both aligned with Trump (Senate candidate Dave McCormick of Pennsylvania) and not (Senate candidate Larry Hogan of Maryland).

A fundraiser for former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, now a U.S. Senate candidate, is among the stops now on Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp's schedule. (Scott Olson/Getty Images/TNS)

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It means planning fundraisers for high-dollar donors in California, Florida and Texas who can restock Kemp’s federal super PAC, along with a September speech before the party’s elite at the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas.

It means expanding Kemp’s political operation, whose small footprint made a 2024 White House bid effectively impossible. Kemp’s latest hire is Collin Cummings, who rejoins the governor after recently working for Chris Christie’s presidential bid.

And it means supporting the party in Milwaukee in July, mindful that those who boycott the convention could face fallout regardless of their personal misgivings or fraught history with the future nominee.

Some Kemp confidants view the governor as more likely to run for president in four years than challenge Ossoff in two. But no matter what Kemp does, he’ll have to continue the 2022 tightrope act of appealing to mainstream Republicans, and even some moderates, without alienating Trump devotees.

“His ability to be successful in the future hinges on Brian Kemp being Brian Kemp,” one longtime friend said of the governor.

No Ted Cruz … or Geoff Duncan

Kemp did that in 2022 by beating former U.S. Sen. David Perdue, his Trump-backed challenger, by 52 percentage points and then defeating Democrat Stacey Abrams in the sequel to their first faceoff. His victory was partly propelled by swing voters — including some who improbably backed him and Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock — who could hold the key to Kemp’s next move.

Pulling off the same act again for another high-stakes campaign, though, could take more political dexterity. One Kemp loyalist likens his strategy as a route between two other GOP figures who have faced Trump’s wrath.

“He’s not Geoff Duncan. But he also can’t be Ted Cruz.”

Former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, who outlined his vision for a Republican Party without Donald Trump in his book "GOP 2.0," has risked his reputation within the party by backing the reelection of Democratic President Joe Biden. (Arvin Temkar/The Atlanta Journal-Constitution/TNS)

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Credit: TNS

The former refers to the ex-Georgia lieutenant governor who committed what some Republicans consider political apostasy by formally backing President Joe Biden. The latter is a one-time Trump foe who is now one of his strongest supporters.

A misstep could be treacherous. Even though Kemp and Trump have forged an uneasy truce this campaign cycle in the hope of recapturing the state for Republicans, some of the former president’s fervent Georgia backers still see the governor as a traitor who didn’t work to illegally overturn Biden’s win.

(Still, the threat to Kemp’s right flank isn’t as pervasive as it once seemed. At the Georgia GOP convention this month, one of the most important pro-Trump groups in the state, one Kemp ally confided he was pleasantly surprised that saying the governor’s name out loud didn’t draw resounding boos.)

Democrats, too, will use every opportunity to tie Kemp to Trump’s brand as they look ahead to a 2026 campaign that features every statewide constitutional office, along with Ossoff’s U.S. Senate seat, on the ballot.

That’s why Kemp might not cozy up to Trump during still-undetermined appearances surrounding the summer convention but use his platform instead to blast Biden, promote out-of-state Republicans running for office and boost down-ticket GOP contenders in Georgia.

As one Republican close to the governor put it, Kemp might as well get used to wielding the political version of a machete as he navigates MAGA-world thickets in the months ahead.

“He’s trying to carve his own path through Trump-y land.”