Former President Donald Trump’s campaign sees Georgia as a must-win state eager to return to its Republican roots. President Joe Biden’s camp calls it a “tossup.” Vice President Kamala Harris quips she’s been in Georgia so often, she might just claim residency status.

Democrats narrowly won Georgia for the first time in nearly three decades in 2020, when Biden’s razor-thin victory cemented the state as a premier political battleground.

But as the nation again trains its focus on Georgia ahead of Thursday’s CNN presidential debate – an Atlanta showdown that marks the first time the two rivals share a stage this campaign – Biden is facing more punishing terrain to keep the state in his column.

Democrats have yet to rebuild the massive get-out-the-vote infrastructure that propelled his 2020 victory, and party leaders acknowledge deep concerns about lagging voter enthusiasm.

The president’s leaden approval ratings threaten to weighs down his reelection bid. There are signs of decaying support from Black Georgians and younger voters, each crucial to his 2020 victory.

Credit: Natrice Miller/AJC

Credit: Natrice Miller/AJC

Sensing a vulnerability, Trump’s campaign is staging an array of events aimed at voters of color, including visits to an Atlanta barber shop this week featuring prominent Black Republicans.

And left-leaning organizations once powered by a seemingly endless spigot of donations attracted by Stacey Abrams have dried up since her second defeat to Gov. Brian Kemp. Now a fundraising behemoth himself, Kemp plans a $1.5 million infusion to help down-ticket GOP contenders win office.

Former Republican U.S. Rep. Doug Collins sounded confident during an appearance Wednesday on the Politically Georgia podcast about Trump’s chances.

“This is the best campaign that the Trump team in Georgia has run in their three bids. He’s doing fine in Georgia right now - and it’s only getting stronger. "

In a sign of the uphill battle ahead, top Democrats don’t bother disputing a spate of surveys that show Trump with a slight but steady lead in Georgia, including an Atlanta Journal-Constitution polls this week that had a 5-point gap between the two rivals.

“I’m not satisfied, but I think the race is still winnable,” said former Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin, one of the state’s most prominent Democrats.

Credit: Jason.Getz@ajc.com

“It takes time, but I think President Biden is a strong candidate and can win the state of Georgia,” added Franklin. “It doesn’t matter to me how close it is. Just looking for a win.”

It’s partly why Biden’s campaign used the week of the debate to show a frenzy of activity in Georgia, with more than 200 small-scale events organized by more than 70 staffers stationed in a dozen or so offices.

“It’ll be a razor thin margin either way in Georgia,” said U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff, whose 2021 runoff victory over Republican incumbent David Perdue helped seal Democratic control of the chamber. “It’s going to take a full-court press in every region of the state to win.”

Campaign insiders looked for the bright spots in the AJC poll, digging deep into the cross tabs to point out trouble spots for Trump and noted, repeatedly, that Georgia hardly seemed on the radar at this point four years ago.

Jen O’Malley Dillon, Biden’s 2020 campaign manager and chair of his reelection bid, this week told a skeptical questioner that there’s a sound strategic reason for the campaign to compete in Georgia despite tough polls.

“If you look at 2020, Georgia and Arizona weren’t even in play at all at this point – and certainly weren’t traditional battleground states,” she told the “Impolitic with John Heilemann” podcast. Later, she added: “We’re going all-out in Georgia.”

A peek into their ‘souls’

Trump’s campaign is battling its own issues in a state that has repeatedly humbled him. Voters rejected his presidential bid in 2020 and then defeated his picks for U.S. Senate, governor, attorney general, insurance commissioner and secretary of state over the next two years.

The same AJC poll that showed Trump with an edge also indicated a significant number of independent voters – instrumental to his comeback bid – are less likely to vote for him after he was found guilty of felony charges in New York.

“Biden’s not doing a bad job – he’s done a pretty good job with the economy, he’s protecting women’s rights,” said Nicola Morris, an independent-leaning voter from Douglasville. “And Donald Trump is a felon.”

Still, with the party’s base solidly behind him, some party leaders would rather spend campaign resources driving up turnout among conservatives who don’t regularly cast ballots.

This week, a parade of MAGA-aligned Republicans revved up supporters at an office opening in Sandy Springs, once GOP territory that steadily turned Democratic after Trump’s election. State Sen. Brandon Beach drew cheers not only with attacks on Biden but also Harris and Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, who is prosecuting Trump on election interference charges after his 2020 loss.

In a state as politically divided as Georgia, other Republicans hope Trump attempts to reach swing voters by focusing on what Republicans see as Biden’s vulnerabilities – the economy and illegal immigration – and not spend much of his time spreading election fraud lies over his defeat.

Kemp, who humiliated Perdue’s Trump-backed challenge in 2022, is among the Republicans who have pleaded with the former president to avoid obsessing over his grievances about the 2020 outcome.

The second-term governor also raised sharp concerns about Republican organizational efforts in Georgia and other key states. Trump’s campaign said it has about a dozen staffed offices scattered across the state, though for months it largely relied on the state GOP.

“The RNC (Republican National Committee) and Republicans around the country need to make sure that they’re not writing off having a good ground game, spending money on that, making sure that they’re getting the message out to persuade voters why this race is so important,” Kemp said in an interview.

Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC

While the governor has pledged his support for Trump in November, another bloc of mainstream Republicans who helped twice elect Kemp but are disgusted by the former president remain up for grabs.

These split-ticket voters are among the small but decisive group of Republicans who voted GOP down the ballot in 2022 in most races, but also helped Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock fend off Republican Herschel Walker.

Former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan is a steady reminder of the GOP’s splintering in Georgia. Once a Trump backer, Duncan refused to vote for Walker in the December 2022 runoff. A few months ago, he endorsed Biden after flirting with a third-party presidential bid.

He told the Politically Georgia podcast that Thursday’s showdown will be a consequential moment for swing voters who are critical of Trump but worried about Biden’s age and competency.

“This debate matters. It’s an opportunity for us to take a peek into each one of their souls, above and beyond the rhetoric and the campaign noise,” he said.

“It’s close for sure,” Duncan added. “Donald Trump has the advantage right now. But there’s a long way to go.”

Staff writers Natalie Mendenhall and Adam Van Brimmer contributed to this report.