Georgia Democrats are entering the new year at a crossroads, at once demoralized by the stinging defeats of Stacey Abrams and other statewide candidates but upbeat about the runoff victory of U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock.

The string of midterm losses by Abrams and others, along with Warnock’s election to a full six-year term, has solidified Georgia as a battleground ahead of a 2024 election that could give state voters more influence over the still-developing White House race.

But with Abrams sidelined by voters after her second defeat in a row, and Warnock ascendant after two consecutive runoff wins, Democrats face a strategic question that could restructure the party’s approach to one of the nation’s premier political battlegrounds.

Some Democrats want to pour more resources into Abrams’ strategy of expanding the party’s base by appealing to voters who don’t always come to the polls, a labor-intense endeavor that helped set the stage for victories by Warnock, U.S. Senate candidate Jon Ossoff and presidential candidate Joe Biden during the 2020 campaign.

Others, chastened by Abrams’ defeat, call for a more steadfast approach to coaxing the smaller bloc of swing voters who helped Warnock clinch the sole Democratic statewide victory of Georgia’s election cycle.

In interviews with more than a dozen party officials, elected leaders and grassroots activists, a common thread emerged that Democrats should embrace elements of Abrams’ approach without neglecting lessons from Warnock’s win.

Many stressed that candidates should take more steps to avoid alienating moderate and independent voters who once were reliable GOP voters but gave Democrats a fresh look during Donald Trump’s presidential bids.

“We have to do both not only to win, but to be true to who we are as Democrats,” said Jason Carter, the party’s 2014 nominee for governor. “We could debate, for example, whether we can win without convincing a single Donald Trump voter. But why would we?”

Credit: Alyssa Pointer

Credit: Alyssa Pointer

Hillary Holley, a former Abrams aide who helped lead Democratic door-knocking efforts in 2022, said Democrats can work to “expand our support among swing voters where possible” but shouldn’t forget a key tenet of the party’s success in the last election cycle.

“We cannot take our base for granted, ever. They need to know who is fighting for them, and during hard economic times, with a divided Congress, it is challenging for voters to keep hope alive,” she said.

“It is on us to persuade our base to show up and vote in every election, and we must attempt to win Republican voters who are also struggling financially and watching their families get left behind.”

Activate and energize

The importance of middle-of-the-road voters came into focus in 2022, when roughly 200,000 voters backed Gov. Brian Kemp but withheld their support from GOP Senate nominee Herschel Walker. Many remained in Warnock’s corner in the Senate runoff.

Even with Abrams’ defeat, the get-out-the-vote infrastructure she helped build should continue to be a cornerstone of the party’s machinery, said Pete Fuller, who chairs the Jackson County Democratic Party.

“Even the most critical voices of the ‘22 Abrams campaign recognize and respect the strategy she developed in activating and energizing irregular voters,” said Fuller.

State Rep. Erick Allen said a new intensity is needed going forward to reach out to voters who might feel ignored.

“What must be added to the mix is strong messaging that welcomes those in the middle and giving conservative-minded voters who cannot stomach the extremism of the GOP a place to go,” said Allen, who was recently elected chair of the Cobb Democratic Party.

Credit: Steve Schaefer/AJC

‘We can win’

Not long ago, Abrams’ view took center stage as she warned Democrats to stop spending “millions of dollars trying to convince Republican women in the suburbs that they really are Democrats” and instead root out more liberal voters with policies that appeal to them.

“We’ve ignored so many Democrats that we’ve forgotten if we can just get them to vote, we can win,” was how Abrams put it.

Centrist-leaning candidates from the past were framed as “Republican lites” as Abrams and her allies embraced issues party figures once avoided, such as new efforts to restrict guns, protect access to abortion and expand voting rights.

But the 2022 election raised fresh questions about the strategy, as Abrams struggled even to consolidate her party’s base despite an enormous fundraising edge. Buoyed by the sweeping powers of incumbency, Kemp unified the GOP base and made inroads to swing voters.

It was Warnock who was able to simultaneously mobilize the party’s base and woo split-ticket voters.

Credit: Natrice Miller / Natrice.Miller@ajc.com

While Abrams outlined a headline-grabbing policy seemingly every week, Warnock emphasized lower-key bipartisan work that was intended to give Republicans an open invitation to vote for him. He kept Biden at arm’s length, rejecting GOP attempts to frame the race as a referendum on the president.

It paid dividends against Walker, a scandal-plagued candidate. In a post-election memo obtained by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Kemp’s pollster found that independent voters backed the governor by a 10-point margin — and supported Warnock over Walker by 19 percentage points.

While Warnock benefited from that swing, he also held the base. An analysis of voting records show turnout among Black voters — the most reliable base of Democratic support — didn’t drop as precipitously between the midterm and the runoff as overall voter participation.

🚨2022 GA Runoff Turnout by race/ethnicity🚨
(as share of adult citizen pop)

Total: 46.0% (-5.5pp vs Nov)
White: 51.9% (-6.9pp)
Black: 40.0% (-3.4pp)
Hispanic: 21.1% (-4.1pp)
Asian/PI: 32.0% (-5.5pp)@mayaaking @bluestein @stphnfwlr @markniesse @AlexSamuelsx5 #gapol #GARunoff
— Bernard L. Fraga (@blfraga) December 14, 2022

Democrats said it highlighted how Warnock’s calls for a cap on the price of insulin, student debt relief and bipartisan work on infrastructure measures helped bridge party divisions.

“It would be a mistake for Democrats to abandon Stacey’s vision. But we can’t focus on policies that just focus on a few intown Atlanta districts,” said state Rep. Teri Anulewicz, a Smyrna Democrat.

Still, pursuing the divergent strategies will put a strain on the party’s resources even as Republicans step up their own efforts to appeal to voters of color.

State Rep. Bee Nguyen, who was the Democratic nominee for secretary of state, said that the party has little other choice but to continue engaging liberals who don’t reliably cast ballots.

“At the same time, it’s clear that Georgia remains a state where we have a significant number of swing voters,” she said. “My hope is we do not pick one or the other, but that we expand our strategy.”

Credit: TNS

Sound off

The AJC reached out to more than a dozen party leaders and activists. Here are excerpts of their views.

State Rep. Teri Anulewicz, D-Smyrna:

“Saying that moderate voters are a recent discovery is like saying that James Oglethorpe discovered Georgia. The moderates have always been here. There are people who would vote for Brian Kemp and Raphael Warnock — and 2022 proved that all over again. It would be a mistake for Democrats to abandon Stacey’s vision. But we can’t focus on policies that just focus on a few intown Atlanta district.”

Former state Sen. Jason Carter, the Democratic nominee for governor in 2014:

“We have to do both not only to win, but to be true to who we are as Democrats. We could debate, for example, whether we can win without convincing a single Donald Trump voter. But why would we? At our core, Democrats believe America’s fundamental project is to live and prosper together, to heal divisions and unify our country as an example to the world. We cannot achieve that if we give up on any group of people. The Democratic Party must be a party that reaches out to all people. Period. Warnock shows this can lead to victory, and it’s also just right.”

Credit: Steve Schaefer

Hillary Holley, executive director of Care in Action, a left-leaning voter mobilization group.

“This is not about choosing Stacey’s vision or Warnock’s strategy. Winning Georgia is about working collectively to activate, empower and protect all voters. We must offer multilingual voter education and voter protection services while continuing to fight for free and fair elections. We do our work in such a way that values voters who show up and those who need convincing, either to show up or to vote for a Democratic candidate. That is how we got here, and that is how we will continue to win.

State Rep. Derek Mallow, a Savannah Democrat:

“I know Atlanta is the nucleus with the largest voting bloc of Democratic voters. Yet, I don’t want to miss the opportunity to address issues for Democrats in counties like Chatham, where Democratic voters want solutions to address economic disparities for social mobility from candidates. We are a party of inclusion, and we should include the many viewpoints around the state so we remain unified. We know elections can also be decided by the participation of Black and young voters; let’s make sure their needs for economic inclusion and justice are present as well.”

State Rep. Bee Nguyen, the Democratic nominee for secretary of state in 2022:

“We cannot forget other important aspects, like in-language access, to reach out to our communities with limited English proficiency. And of course, we must always prioritize a strong field strategy. Georgia organizers, along with Black voters, deserve enormous credit for ensuring Rev. Warnock crossed the finish line on Dec. 6.”

State Rep.-elect Ruwa Romman, newly elected to represent a Gwinnett-based district:

“Tokenizing minority groups no longer works. Assuming they only care about stereotypical issues no longer works. Any strategy that doesn’t include turning out those voters will fail. Any strategy that doesn’t include a disciplined message will fail. Georgia is a swing state because we made it one. My recommendation is listen to those who’ve now done it four times in two years.”