The race to the White House could not be any more unclear. With young voters unhappy with their options and the narrow gap in national and state polls, this debate could shift the tide for President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump.

According to ABC’s polling analysis team, 538, debates matter a whole lot more in closely divided presidential battles than you might think: “On average, polls have moved by 2.4 points in the two weeks after the first presidential debate of each cycle.”

And with Trump and Biden neck-and-neck, 2.4 points could make all the difference. Read the full analysis here.

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Republican candidate Matt Van Epps speaks at a watch party to declare victory in a special election for the U.S. seventh congressional district, Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/John Amis)

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Ja’Quon Stembridge, shown here in July at the Henry County Republican Party monthly meeting, recently stepped from his position with the Georgia GOP. (Jenni Girtman for the AJC)

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