Pollsters and Georgia voters’ phones did not hear a final bell.
We said last week’s poll report would be the last one for this election cycle. Then six high-quality polls were published in the next three days, so we’re back.
The general shape of the race remains remarkably steady. Republican Donald Trump consistently scores slightly higher levels of support against Democrat Kamala Harris. But every one of those new polls shows the race is within the margin of error. Trump had leads of 1 or 2 percentage points in five of those polls, and the other one showed a tie.
Harris did improve her status in a few of the most recent polls — most notably a 4 percentage point improvement in The New York Times poll from its previous poll in September. To illustrate how narrow the race is, Harris had a higher level of support in that poll in a head-to-head race against Trump. That margin flips when third-party candidates are brought into the mix.
Trump did hit the 50% threshold in the Emerson and Bloomberg polls.
The past seven days of polling shows Trump ahead in seven polls, with one tied. The average gives Trump a 48% to 47% edge.
The gambling markets moved closer to an agreement with the polls. Prices still favor Trump but saw significant declines in the past week. The price for a share predicting a Republican win on Predictit fell 6 cents in the past week to 64 cents. A share predicting a Democratic win climbed 5 cents to 39 cents. On Polymarket, prices shifted toward Harris. A user betting on Trump would win about $15 for wagering $10, compared with $29 on a $10 wager for Harris.
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