Less than a month into 2025, and the Atlanta area has experienced two snowstorms. It’s been several years since the area had more than an inch of snow, so the exuberance, dread and wish-casting were on display.
The first storm delivered 2.1 inches of snowfall at the Atlanta airport, which placed the official total above the annual average total for the year. The second storm was connected to a more historic event that produced blizzard warnings in Lake Charles, Louisiana, and nearly 10 inches of snow in New Orleans. That same storm also painted beaches in Alabama and the panhandle snow white before taking aim at the Interstate 95 corridor.
Credit: Handout
Credit: Handout
From a forecast standpoint, the Atlanta area got pretty much what was forecast. Amounts ranged from a dusting on the northern fringe of the Winter Weather Advisory region to more than 1 inch in the Winter Storm Warning areas. The National Weather Service-Peachtree City did a masterful job leading up to the event with its forecast and messaging. One aspect of its messaging and my own assessment was how similar this storm was to the 2014 “Snowmageddon” storm that brought Atlanta to an abrupt and treacherous standstill.
Generally, Southerners are socialized to be in awe of snow and fixate on how much will fall. This storm reaffirms that Georgians must evolve how they think about snowstorms in three important ways. I came to this realization while monitoring a popular Georgia social media site. There were several lighthearted comments about how a “tiny amount” of snow shuts Atlanta down. Geez, we already deal with jokes from people in the northern U.S. who must not understand that we have minimal snow removal capacity. Why would we? The average snow in the area is less than 2 inches total, and even that might tot happen every year.
Like “Snowmageddon 2014,” temperatures were frigid by Georgia standards, and peak snow amounts were expected south of the city. The pre-storm atmosphere was initially dry. It was snowing over Atlanta most of the day but did not reach the ground until early afternoon. Our University of Georgia-Georgia Tech weather radar at Georgia Gwinnett College detected the snow level gradually making its way to the surface.
Both state and city officials formed taskforces in the wake of the 2014 storm. I served on the group organized by Atlanta. Both committees revealed several lessons learned. I saw them in action this time. The state, Atlanta and several county jurisdictions deserve major kudos. Roads were pretreated. Many school systems (but not all) under the Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Storm Warning preemptively closed or pivoted to digital instruction. The governor issued a state of emergency. Data on road temperatures were being collected by post-2014 monitoring systems. Georgia even established a state meteorologist who coordinates with federal meteorologists, jurisdictions and emergency managers.
The public and business communities must evolve from the mindset of “how much is going to fall” and focus on “how fast does it freeze.” Even with such improvements, this event still caused significant commuting delays, traffic jams and accidents throughout the region — though not to the scale of the 2014 event. Forecasts were spot-on with the timing of the snow. It started midafternoon, which, for many people, creates a sense of normality. Through much of the day, it was easy to get to work or run errands. The question becomes, “Can you get home?” What confuses some people is that typical snowfalls in Georgia happen at temperatures near 32 degrees F. In this event (and in 2014), temperatures were very cold and falling, which causes rapid freezing. Because we had experienced several days of below-freezing temperatures, the roads were also quite cold.
Further engagement is needed to increase winter weather literacy. Another challenge was revealed in a comment by a person who lived in the eastern part of the metropolitan area. She seemed to blame the National Weather Service. Her premise was that her county was not in the Winter Storm Warning area, which informed her actions and perhaps those of her school system. It reaffirms for me that the use of “advisories” might be problematic. Her county was in the Winter Weather Advisory issued by the National Weather Service. According to the Georgia Emergency Management Agency, “A winter weather advisory is issued up to 36 hours before an event where an 80 percent or greater chance of winter precipitation (i.e. snow, freezing rain/drizzle, sleet or blowing snow) is expected to cause inconveniences, but does not meet warning criteria.” With its messaging, the National Weather Service clearly noted that up to 1 inch of snow was possible in counties under the advisory. A Winter Storm Warning is issued if 0.5 inch or more of sleet, at least 0.25 inches of freezing rain, and/or 2 or more inches of snow are expected. As I noticed in 2014, some people do not perceive advisories as worthy of risk aversion. The snow totals that caused hazardous conditions this time mostly met Winter Weather Advisory conditions. (Alternatively, should we continue to use advisories? That’s a discussion for a different day.)
We must become a society comfortable with precautionary risk aversion even if there are no direct impacts ultimately. I also noticed something very interesting over the course of my career. The public has selective tolerance with risk planning and actions. We buy home or car insurance policies. We take classes to get driver’s licenses or other certification. We adhere to speed limits or other laws that might be perceived to be inconveniences. In some cases, we never use those insurance policies. However, when it comes to weather risk, people often complain. If a school system releases students early because of a tornado threat, some people complain because the tornado happened in the county but not where they lived. When I became a member of Alpha Phi Alpha Fraternity Inc., my fraternity brothers taught us the 5P’s: Prior planning prevents poor performance. That advice is warranted with our future snowstorms, hurricane events, floods and heat waves.
J. Marshall Shepherd is the Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor and the director of the Atmospheric Sciences Program at the University of Georgia. He also serves as an associate dean in the Franklin College of Arts and Sciences. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. In 2013, he served as president of the American Meteorological Society.
