Because my podcast and newsletter They Stand Corrected focus on fact-checking, I make relatively few predictions. But having spent many years in the news business, I can confidently say this: Over the next few months, I expect we’ll see an unprecedented weaponization of political polling.
To understand why, we need to look at the unique circumstances. When President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race, polls came under the spotlight. As Politico reported, top Biden advisers told him that the campaign’s polls showed that “his path to victory in November was gone.”
Credit: Handout
Credit: Handout
Biden’s decision was a game-changer for the election, leading to a massive influx of fundraising and excitement for Vice President Kamala Harris. And for now, the move is overwhelmingly popular, with only a tiny sliver of Americans (in yet another poll, this one from the New York Times) saying he should have stayed in the race.
But among the small handful of Democrats who feel that way, there is some anger at the party. I’ve heard from some who think that Biden was treated unfairly and pushed out. They say the polls this early on should not have been treated as indicative of what will happen in November.
Expect former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee for president, to try to win those voters over. His team will attempt to play up their anger in hopes that they may refuse to vote for Harris, even if they don’t vote for Trump, as a sort of punishment against party leaders. After all, getting people to not vote at all is part of Trump’s strategy. Following his victory in the Electoral College in 2016, Trump said, “Many Blacks didn’t go out to vote for Hillary ‘cause they liked me. That was almost as good as getting the vote, you know, and it was great,” Politico reported.
Also in 2016, Trump launched a concerted effort to win over disaffected supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). He will surely want to win over any disaffected Biden supporters now.
The number of would-be Biden voters who choose a third-party candidate, sit out the race or even vote for Trump will likely be very small. But in a neck-and-neck contest, every vote is crucial.
To sow these kinds of divisions among Democrats, the Trump team might try to convince them that the party made a historically bad move. Anytime there’s a polling dip for Harris, expect the Trump campaign — and the right-wing media that blare its messages into millions of homes — to push headlines like, “Panicking Dems say, ‘What have we done? Bring back Joe!’”
The Harris team will likely highlight the most positive polls for her, working to keep up newfound momentum and enthusiasm to propel her to the presidency.
Meanwhile, national media will continue to fixate on every minor up and down in the polls. These reports drive clicks, which makes political opinion research such a lucrative, bustling market. As I write this, a tracker at The Hill offers a look at the presidential race “based on 91 polls.”
But the big-picture reality is likely to remain the same. The polls won’t tell us who’s going to win. Looking at polls in 2016, the conventional wisdom was that Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee, would win, and though she did get the popular vote by a lot, she lost the White House. And at this time 20 years ago, John Kerry was leading George W. Bush in polling averages. In the end, turnout in a handful of “swing states” determines the winner of the popular vote and of the Electoral College.
Most Americans won’t benefit in any way from nonstop reporting about polls. However, as I point out in my new episode, in certain states the polling will have some value even outside of political circles. It will help show volunteers where their work may be most impactful. One of those is Georgia. Here, polls showing the race tightening in the state might inspire more people to get out, canvas, phone bank, hold events and help get people registered. The same goes for political contributions. In close races, people might be more apt to give money.
But at the national level, the daily ups and downs that each candidate will experience will have little value. They’ll take people on an emotional roller coaster, with peaks of hope and plunges of despair for the nation’s future. They’ll eat up time and energy, increase anxiety and fill days with tension.
My recommendation: Aside from moments in which you’re looking to take a specific action to help a candidate, don’t worry about the latest national polling. Don’t be tricked into daily “doomscrolling” — or by doompolling. Instead, do what’s impactful: Use your voice, encourage people to vote and be part of standing for democracy.
Josh Levs, an award-winning journalist, is host of the fact-checking podcast They Stand Corrected, and has an accompanying newsletter.
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