Tropical Storm Grace may form this weekend and follow a course that could take it to South Florida by the end of next week.
The storm was producing maximum winds of 35 mph as it approached the eastern Caribbean Sea, the National Hurricane Center said in an 11 a.m. Friday advisory. The disturbance is expected to form a tropical depression Friday night and a tropical storm by Saturday.
The current forecast shows the storm achieving its maximum wind speed of 50 mph as it approaches the Dominican Republic early next week. Located about 850 miles from the eastern islands of the Caribbean, the storm is moving west at about 20 mph.
The region of stormy weather, now known as Invest 95L, is one of what’s likely to be a procession of potential storms rolling off the African coast in the next few weeks, as the Atlantic enters the peak of hurricane season.
Robert Molleda, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Miami, said the atmosphere ahead of the storm doesn’t appear particularly favorable for it to get very strong.
He said it’s still early, and forecasters will have a better sense of the storm’s likely path and strength in a few days.
Molleda added that the storm’s projected course looked similar to that of former Tropical Storm Fred, which was moving along Cuba’s northern coast and could regain tropical storm status as it pulls away from the island on Friday, ahead of its projected track towards the Florida Keys on Saturday and southwest Florida on Sunday, forecasters said.
A depression is a tropical cyclone with wind speeds that go up 38 mph. The next strongest would be a tropical storm.
Tropical storm watches went up Friday morning for several islands in the northeastern Caribbean, with strong winds and heavy rain expected over the weekend.
The storm faces obstacles including dry air and wind shear, crosswinds that can inhibit the formation of a tropical cyclone’s rotating structure, according to AccuWeather, the private forecasting service.
“The tropical rainstorm is embedded within an area of drier air and has some African dust to its north and west which is working to slow development,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty.
But he said it still appears likely the system will form a tropical depression or tropical storm this weekend.
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