Trump-Clinton battle royale in N.C.

Donald Trump was 90 minutes late and the crowd packed into the basketball arena on the campus of High Point University was bored, antsy and numbed to the irony of repeated playings of “You Can’t Always Get What You Want.” Charlene Green stepped into the hallway for a few minutes of respite and reflection.

Green, 58, is a former “hippy-dippy chick” grown increasingly conservative. She’s a mother, drug counselor and registered Democrat. She worries about terrorism, immigration and infringments on the U.S. Constitution, the Second Amendment in particular.

And she hasn’t decided whom to vote for — the exact type of politically engaged, fence-sitting voter that Trump and Hillary Clinton need to win North Carolina and, possibly, the White House.

A battle royale is underway in one of the most hotly contested battleground states in the country, with the dwindling number of undecided voters in the cross hairs of the Trump and Clinton campaigns. Presidential polls show a dead heat in North Carolina, ratcheting up the importance of voters such as Green.

A pollster here at the university, in the heart of the state’s Piedmont region, put the number of undecided voters at 10 percent. Trump and Clinton, accordingly, visit the Tar Heel State just about every week seeking to sway elusive and uncommitted voters.

North Carolina’s changing demographics make it a state in play. Once reliably blue, North Carolina refused to join its Deep South brethren who turned overwhelmingly red the past three decades. Voters seem to enjoy sending a Republican to Raleigh or Washington one year, only to elect a Democratic governor or senator the next time around.

In 2008, for example, North Carolina went for Barack Obama. Four years later, it preferred Mitt Romney. Meanwhile, conservative white Republicans in the suburbs and countryside lost clout to newcomer moderates and liberals who cluster in Raleigh, Durham, Charlotte and Asheville. North Carolina today is decidedly purple.

And riven by a slew of highly controversial issues — transgender rights, police shootings, coal ash spills and voting rights challenges — that make this year’s election more critical than usual and wholly unpredictable. Toss in an unpopular governor up for re-election and an incumbent U.S. senator fighting for his political life, and North Carolina’s already schizophrenic politics turn even more combustible.

“I’m very open to listening to both sides and both candidates,” Green said before returning to the gymnasium to hear Trump. “I have not made up my mind. It’s a very unusual election because of the dynamics of the candidates. And it is a confusing time for me and some of my friends.”

‘Always been a battleground’

Clinton visited Raleigh last Tuesday and focused her speech at a community college on the previous night’s debate and Trump’s qualifications, or lack thereof, to be president. Trump, in High Point two weeks ago, spoke of terrorism, immigration and an impending Pacific Rim trade deal that he labeled “a disaster for North Carolina.”

The state, the central Piedmont region in particular, was hit hard by the North American Free Trade Agreement, which gutted the textile and furniture industries and cost an estimated 350,000 jobs. Few states, though, benefit today from global trade as robustly as the Old North State, whose economy has been revolutionized over the past generation.

The Research Triangle Park boasts thousands of well-paying engineering, pharmaceutical and telecom jobs. Charlotte, at the western edge of the Piedmont, is a financial juggernaut, home to Bank of America. Good universities and low taxes have also attracted droves of Northern and Midwestern transplants to the urbanized Piedmont, where the election will likely be decided.

“We have always been a battleground state. It’s not a recent phenomena. We sent Jesse Helms to the Senate and we’ve had Democratic senators, too,” state Sen. Tamara Barringer, a Republican, said before a candidates forum in Fuquay-Varina, near Raleigh. “We are no longer a Republican or Democratic state. We are unaffiliated. And that may change some election outcomes. We will continue to be a battleground state because of the changing demographics.”

High Point University released a presidential poll last week showing a virtual dead heat between Trump and Clinton. The poll, taken before the debate, largely mirrors other state and national surveys of North Carolina voters. It also shows that 10 percent of likely voters remain undecided.

The undecided, though, were asked who’d they vote for if the election were held today. Clinton took a 42 percent-40 percent lead, well within the margin of error. (Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson got 10 percent.)

“It’s a really close race,” said Martin Kifer, who runs the school’s Survey Research Center. “But Hillary Clinton has a pretty big advantage as far as personal characteristics (such as) caring about people and middle-class values. When it comes to the issues most important to voters — the economy, jobs, fighting foreign threats — then Donald Trump has a modest edge.”

Robert Roth raises grass-fed Black Angus cows and sells the meat, along with butter, whole milk and buttermilk, at the Farmers Curb Market in Greensboro. He doesn’t trust Clinton and faults her husband for signing NAFTA.

“Trump wants to shut our borders down and bring manufacturing back. He’s on the right track,” the blue-aproned Roth, 68, said as the lunchtime crowd dwindled. “Those people who lost an income or gone bankrupt are fed up with politics as usual. That’s why I like Trump. We have got to straighten out Washington, D.C.”

Tremuir Fuller says Trump would wreak havoc in Washington and ruin Obama’s legacy of health care, disentanglement from foreign wars and economic revitalization.

“Relationships with our foreign allies may not survive Trump. I don’t think he’s mentally prepared to deal with them. We don’t want to start no world war,” said Fuller, 27, a Raleigh restaurant worker who was applying for a second job in Cary one recent, rainy morning. “This election is big. It could make or break the country.”

Fuller is young, black and a city dweller — demographics that play to Clinton’s electoral strengths. Nearly one in four North Carolina voters is African-American, and Clinton, like Obama, is relying on them for victory. Turnout will be critical.

Roth is white, old and a rural denizen — demographics that play to Trump’s electoral strengths. The High Point poll, for example, shows that whites without college degrees (Roth has three degrees) are more likely to vote for Trump. Yet, whites with college degrees vote for both candidates in near-equal numbers.

“And Hillary Clinton has shown a bit of a gender gap vis-a-vis Donald Trump such that women, particularly older women, are more likely to say they’ll vote for her,” said Kifer, the pollster.

Down-ballot races could be crucial

The North Carolina race for the White House is further muddled by a slew of controversial state issues and their impact on down-ballot candidates and turnout. None looms larger than the acrimonious and costly fight over LGBT rights.

Charlotte’s liberal City Council passed a law early this year allowing transgender men and women to use whichever bathroom they prefer. The GOP-dominated General Assembly killed the Charlotte ordinance, which many legislators said would allow “male predators” to enter women’s bathrooms.

Republican Gov. Pat McCrory, who’s up for re-election, quickly signed the so-called “bathroom bill.” His opponent, Attorney General Roy Cooper, opposes it. The U.S. Justice Department sued North Carolina claiming the law violates civil rights.

North Carolina has since suffered an estimated $400 million in lost convention, concert and corporate business due to the legislation. The NCAA and Atlantic Coast Conference sports leagues — college basketball is a religion in North Carolina — pulled their tournaments from the state.

Most polls show North Carolinians largely oppose the bathroom bill and hold McCrory accountable. The governor trails Cooper by 4 to 9 points, according to various polls. Trump, who initially opposed the legislation, now supports it. Clinton says the “very mean-spirited” law should be repealed.

“Donald Trump doesn’t represent our values,” said Virginia Elam, a High Point University senior protesting the candidate’s appearance on campus two weeks ago. “He brings unwanted hate. He represents racism, sexism, homophobia, Islamophobia and, really, just bigotry.”

The Republican-controlled Legislature approved a number of voting restrictions in 2013, including new identification requirements, same-day registration and fewer early voting days, that “target African-Americans with almost surgical precision,” a circuit court judge ruled in July. The legal victory should make it easier for tens of thousands of blacks to vote, most likely for Clinton.

Many North Carolinians remain unhappy with the McCrory administration’s response to the discovery of wells tainted by toxic chemicals, possibly from coal ash runoff from nearby electric power plants. And then there’s the fallout from September’s shooting of an African-American man by Charlotte police. The killing, and the ensuing violent protests, will likely invigorate voters on both sides of the racial divide.

“I have never seen North Carolina as polarized as it is today,” said John Hettwer, a Trump supporter and president of a payroll and benefits company in Cornelius, north of Charlotte. “A lot of people thought that Trump would hurt the down-ballot races, but I think it could be the other way around.”

North Carolina

Electoral votes: 15

Population*

10,042,802

Population change since 2010: 5.3 percent

*Estimated, July 1, 2015

Race and Hispanic origin

Non-Hispanic white: 63.8 percent

Black: 22.1 percent

Hispanic: 9.1 percent

Education**

High school degree or higher: 85.4 percent

Bachelor’s degree or higher: 27.8 percent

**For people 25 or older

Economy

Real median household income, 2014: $46,784

Per-capita income, 2015: $40,656

Unemployment rate, July: 4.7 percent

Poverty rate: 17.2 percent

Congressional delegation

U.S. Sen. Richard Burr, Republican, took office in 2005

U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis, Republican, took office in 2015

U.S. Rep. Alma Adams, Democrat, took office in 2014

U.S. Rep. George “G.K.” Butterfield Jr., Democrat, took office in 2004

U.S. Rep. Renee Ellmers, Republican, took office in 2011

U.S. Rep. Virginia Foxx, Republican, took office in 2005

U.S. Rep. George Holding, Republican, took office in 2013

U.S. Rep. Richard Hudson, Republican, took office in 2013

U.S. Rep. Walter Jones Jr., Republican, took office in 1995

U.S. Rep. Patrick McHenry, Republican, took office in 2005

U.S. Rep. Mark Meadows, Republican, took office in 2013

U.S. Rep. Robert Pittenger, Republican, took office in 2013

U.S. Rep. David Price, Democrat, took office in 1997

U.S. Rep. David Rouzer, Republican, took office in 2015

U.S. Rep. Mark Walker, Republican, took office in 2015

Governor

Pat McCrory, Republican, took office in 2013

Four of North Carolina’s past seven governors, going back to 1973, have been Democrats.

State Legislature

Republican control both chambers of the state Legislature.

Recent presidential voting history

2012

Mitt Romney, Republican: 50.4 percent

Barack Obama, Democrat, 48.4 percent

2008

Barack Obama, Democrat: 49.7 percent

John McCain, Republican: 49.4 percent

2004

George W. Bush, Republican: 56.1 percent

John Kerry, Democrat: 43.6 percent

2000

George W. Bush, Republican: 56.0 percent

Al Gore, Democrat: 43.2 percent

1996

Robert Dole, Republican: 48.7 percent

Bill Clinton, Democrat: 44.0 percent

North Carolina has voted for a Democratic presidential candidate only twice since 1968.

2016 presidential primary

Democratic winner: Hillary Clinton, with 54.58 percent of the vote

Republican winner: Donald Trump, with 40.23 percent of the vote

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Federal Reserve, govtrack.us, Ballotpedia, 270towin.com, http://north-carolina.state-election.info/

Shifting South

This is the fifth installment of a weekly series by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution on the political currents that define our region. Today’s story, by Dan Chapman, probes the presidential race in North Carolina ahead of the November election. Future pieces will look at some of Georgia’s other neighbors.

36 days until vote

Monday marks 36 days until Americans vote in federal and state races on Nov. 8. All year, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has brought you the key moments in those races, and it will continue to cover the campaign’s main events, examine the issues and analyze candidates’ finance reports until the last ballot is counted. You can follow the developments on the AJC’s politics page at https://www.ajc.com/politics/ and in the Political Insider blog at https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/. You can also track our coverage on Twitter at https://twitter.com/GAPoliticsNews or Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/AJCGaPolitics.