U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders has the most support among likely voters in the Democratic primaries in North Carolina and Texas, while U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar has the lead in her home state of Minnesota, according to new polls of the three Super Tuesday states released Friday.
The nonpartisan polls were conducted by the University of Massachusetts Lowell's Center for Public Opinion.
In North Carolina, Sanders has the support of 23% of likely voters, followed by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg with the support of 19% of likely voters.
Former Vice President Joe Biden is in third with 16%, followed by U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 13%, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 10%, Klobuchar at 7%, U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and businessman Tom Steyer are tied at 3%, and 6% of likely voters are undecided.
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Sanders is also in first place in Texas, with the support of 23% of likely voters, followed closely by Biden with 20% and Bloomberg with 18%. Warren has 14%, Klobuchar is at 9%, Buttigieg at 7%, Gabbard has 4% and Steyer has 2%; 3% of likely voters are undecided.
In Minnesota, Klobuchar is ahead with the support of 27% of likely voters, followed by Sanders at 21%, Warren at 16%, Buttigieg at 10%, Biden and Bloomberg tied at 9%, Gabbard at 4% and Steyer with less than 1% support, with 4% undecided.
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“These polls cement Bernie Sanders’ status as the national front-runner,” said Joshua Dyck, director of the Center for Public Opinion and associate professor of political science. “Moving from state to state, he is competing with different candidates for first place, but his campaign and place atop the rankings is ubiquitous. He will win delegates everywhere. It is indeed hard to imagine a scenario where the primary ends and he doesn’t have the most delegates if this trend continues.”
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The polls also found that with less than two weeks to go, likely voters may still change their minds about which candidates they support:
- Minnesota – 62% of likely voters are firm in their choice of candidate, while 38% say they could change their mind before March 3. Sanders' base appears to be the most solid, with 85% of his supporters saying they will definitely vote for him. This is 18 points higher than the vote certainty for Klobuchar; 67% of her supporters say they will definitely vote for her.
- North Carolina – 34% of likely voters said they could still change their minds compared with 66% who said they are firm in their support of their chosen candidate. Sanders has the strongest base, with 82% of his supporters saying they will definitely vote for him. This is 13 points higher than the vote certainty for Bloomberg, who is at 69%, and is followed by Biden and Steyer at 63%, Warren at 60%, Buttigieg at 59%, Klobuchar at 56% and Gabbard at 21%.
- Texas – 33% of likely voters said they could still change their minds compared with 67% who said they are firm in their support of their chosen candidate. Eighty-one percent of Sanders supporters say they will definitely vote for him, 13 points higher than the vote certainty for Biden and Bloomberg, who are tied at 68%. Buttigieg is at 55%, and Warren and Klobuchar are both at 51%.
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“In state after state, Sanders has a base of support that’s unmatched among his opponents,” said John Cluverius, associate director of the UMass Lowell Center. “To win the nomination, Sanders has to keep the people who are already with him on board and then keep supporters of his opponents divided. The question is, can any of Sanders’ opponents nab enough support from other candidates, solidify their own bases and pick off a few reluctant Sanders supporters?”
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The poll also asked likely voters which candidate will ultimately win the party’s nomination:
• Minnesota – Thirty-four percent said Sanders, followed by Bloomberg at 12%, and Klobuchar and Biden are tied for third with 7%. However, 31% of voters surveyed said they are unsure.
• North Carolina – Thirty-five percent said Sanders, followed by Bloomberg at 14% and Biden with 13%. However, 27% of voters surveyed said they are unsure.
• Texas – Thirty-three percent said Sanders, followed by Biden with 17% and Bloomberg with 16%. However, 21% of voters surveyed said they are unsure.
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Likely voters were also asked whether they view the candidates favorably or unfavorably:
- Minnesota – Klobuchar had the highest net favorability rating of +60, followed by Warren with a net +52 favorability, Sanders with a net +35 favorability rating, Biden with a net +26 favorability rating and Bloomberg has a net +9 favorability rating, with 23% of those polled saying they have no opinion or have never heard of him. Likely voters also gave former President Barack Obama a +83 net favorability rating and President Trump a -89 net favorability rating.
- North Carolina – Warren has the highest net favorability rating with +44, followed by Biden with a net +42 favorability rating and Sanders with a net +38 favorability rating. Buttigieg has a net favorability of +37, but 33% of likely voters say they have never heard of him. Thirty-seven percent said they have never heard of Klobuchar, who has a net favorability rating of +41 with likely voters who do know of her. Bloomberg has a net favorability rating of +19.
- Texas – Warren has the highest net favorability rating of +48, followed by Sanders with a net +42 favorability rating and Biden with a net +36 favorability rating. However, for some candidates, the percentage of likely voters who either have no opinion or have never heard of them is quite high, according to the analysis by the Center for Public Opinion. For Steyer, the no opinion/never heard of percentage is 49%, followed by Klobuchar at 34%, and 23% for Bloomberg, who has the lowest net favorability ratings of any of the candidates at +17.
The poll of 450 likely Minnesota Democratic primary voters was conducted Feb. 12 through Feb. 19 and has an adjusted margin of error of plus or minus 6.4%. The poll of 450 likely voters in the North Carolina Democratic primary was conducted Feb. 12 through Feb. 18 and has an adjusted margin of error of plus or minus 6.5%. The poll of 600 likely voters in the Texas Democratic primary was conducted Feb. 12 through Feb. 18 and has an adjusted margin of error of plus or minus 5.9%.
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