Many would argue that the 2016 presidential election is scary enough, with claims of elections being rigged and the specter of phantom emails ready to pop out at any moment.
The election is three weeks away, and while polls change and pundits argue over what will happen next, a Halloween costume chain said it knows who will be the next president of the United States.
Spirit Halloween has been selling costumes and Halloween accessories for 33 years, and the chain lays claim to an interesting fact. By tracking the sales of the presidential nominee masks, Spirit Halloween has accurately predicted the winner in presidential election years since 1996.
The company, according to a press release, uses the “Presidential Mask Index” to track the progress of the sales of candidate’s masks in its 1,200 stores and uses that information to make its prediction.
“With such a historic and eventful year in politics, we are eager to track the progress of our candidate mask sales as a fun comparison to more traditional polls,” said Steven Silverstein, Spirit Halloween’s president and CEO.
The store sells several versions of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump Halloween masks from the “Tax Evasion Trump,” to the “Cackling Clinton.”
The store's survey of mask sales does have a few flaws – as scientific polls go. Only about 4 percent of adults who will dress up for Halloween will wear a political-inspired costume. People are more likely to run into a witch or a pirate, as they are a Trump or a Clinton, according to the National Retail Federation.
But within those boundaries, Spirit Halloween has had remarkable success in picking the next commander-in-chief.
Masks of President Barack Obama outsold those of his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, by a 60 percent to 40 percent margin in 2012. In 2008, Obama’s image outsold masks of Sen. John McCain, (R-Arizona), the Republican nominee for president, by the same margin.
The George W. Bush mask outsold John Kerry’s mask in 2004 and Al Gore’s mask in 2000. Bill Clinton’s mask was the clear winner over Sen. Bob Dole, (R-Kansas), in 1996.
According to a press release from Spirit Halloween, the company has partnered with the Harris Poll to survey more than 2,000 adults, asking why they would dress up as either candidate this Halloween. What they found out:
• Fifty-five percent of those who said they would dress up as a candidate chose Donald Trump. Forty-five percent chose Clinton.
• The top reason Americans chose Donald Trump is to be funny (39 percent), whereas the top reason Americans choose Hillary Clinton is because they like her (31 percent).
• About 1 out of 4 Republicans (23 percent) and Democrats (27 percent) indicated that they would dress up as the opposite party's candidate because it would be scary.
• Thirty-two percent would dress as Donald Trump to mock him; 16 percent would dress as Clinton to mock her.
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