With a week to go, New Hampshire’s Democratic primary is wide open, with a close race for the lead and a large share of likely voters who say they could still change their mind, according to a new poll released Monday.
U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders is at the head of the field with likely Democratic primary voters, with the support of 23%. But Sanders — who won the 2016 New Hampshire primary by 22 points —– is now just 1 point ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden, who has the support of 22% of likely voters, and just 4 points ahead of U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who has 19%.
With a margin of error of plus or minus 6.4%, the race is too close to call according to the poll, which was independently funded and conducted by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion.
The only other candidate registering double-digit support is South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who had 12% support among likely voters in the nonpartisan poll.
Tied for fifth place are U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Tom Steyer, with 6%, followed by U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (5%), Andrew Yang (2%) and former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (1%). Four percent are undecided.
"This is a true toss-up race."
Joshua Dyck, Center for Public Opinion director
Although the primary is next week, 39% of likely voters polled said they could change their mind about their choice for a presidential candidate. Sanders’ support appears the most stable, with 88% of respondents who favor him saying they will definitely vote for him and only 12% who reported they might change their mind.
Among Biden supporters, 68% said their vote is definite and 32% said they could change their mind. With Warren, 62% of supporters are definite about their vote and 38% said they could choose another candidate.
»MORE: Debacle in Iowa Democratic caucuses causes delays, confusion
Among other candidates, support among those polled is less definite: 71% of Buttigieg voters said they could change their mind, followed by 64% among Steyer supporters and 58% among Klobuchar’s. These findings and the results due Tuesday from the Iowa caucuses suggest there could be large shifts in support leading up to the New Hampshire primary.
“This is a true toss-up race. There are three candidates within the margin of error, and when you count the persuadable voters for the other candidates, there is a high degree of instability in this race with just over a week to go. New Hampshire primaries are reputed for going down to the wire, and it looks like Granite State Democrats are ready to live up to their reputation,” said Joshua Dyck, director of the Center for Public Opinion and associate professor of political science.
The poll also asked likely first-in-the-nation primary voters which of the two national front-runners — Sanders and Biden — is more likely to defeat President Donald Trump in the November general election. Forty-two percent said Biden and 31% chose Sanders, with 27% saying they will fare about the same.
However, when asked which candidate they agree with more on policy, 47% chose Sanders, 37% selected Biden and 16% said they agree with both equally. When asked who among all of the Democratic candidates will win the party’s nomination, 42% said Biden, 24% said Sanders and 8% said Warren; no other candidate registered above 5%.
“With a neck-and-neck race between two, or possibly three candidates with Warren’s rise in our poll, it’s apparent that Democrats are caught in a dilemma between choosing a candidate who more closely approximates their policy desires and a candidate who they think can beat Donald Trump in November,” said Dyck.
The survey also looked at likely Democratic primary voters’ views on Trump. Ninety-five percent said they disapprove of the job he is doing as president and only 8% said the country is headed in the right direction. A majority polled said they are not in favor of a compromise that would give Trump funding for a border wall in exchange for a national Medicare-for-all health care plan. And asked if they would rather see Trump reelected or a giant meteor strike the Earth, 62% surveyed chose the meteor.
“Democrats in the survey view Trump negatively, won’t make tough compromises with him and even prefer, probably in jest, an apocalyptic event to him winning reelection. Whether it’s about making stark policy contrasts or guaranteeing victory, Democrats badly want a win in November,” said John Cluverius, associate director of the Center for Public Opinion and assistant professor of political science.
The poll of likely Democratic primary voters also found:
- Distrust of the federal government — a key issue in 2016 — remains a factor, with only 10% saying they trust it "most of the time," compared with 34% who trust it "hardly ever" and 55% who trust it "some of the time."
- Sixty-seven percent believe that the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary should continue to be first, rather than rotating with other states.
The poll of 400 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters was independently funded by the University of Massachusetts Lowell, which has thousands of students, alumni and employees who call the Granite State home. The survey was designed and analyzed by the Center for Public Opinion and fielded by YouGov from Jan. 28 through Jan. 31. The center presents events and public opinion polling on political and social issues to provide unique opportunities for civic engagement, experiential learning and real-world research.
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