Despite the fact the U.S. is enduring only the third presidential impeachment trial in history, British oddsmakers are betting on President Donald Trump finishing his first term and not leaving office prematurely.
That's according to Oddschecker US, an odds comparison and insight service, which has been compiling long-term data projects around political betting markets for this year's presidential election. The numbers are coming from British bookmakers where political wagering is legal.
"The president himself remains seemingly obsessed with both the Democratic race as well as his trial, firing digital shots at the major players in both spheres on Twitter," said Oddschecker spokesperson Pete Watt. "The first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus is just days away, impeachment proceedings are continuing to rage and issues with Iran are still simmering; quite simply, the American political landscape is chaotically busy."
Despite that, however, oddsmakers rate Trump’s chances of actually leaving office prematurely at just 12.5%, or +700.
“This is in sharp juxtaposition this day one year ago, when it seemed like the enormity of the position that he had taken on was perhaps dawning on Trump,” Watt said. “On January 29, 2019, his odds of departing before completion of a first term where +160, which implied a 38.50% chance.
“However, with the Republican-controlled Senate almost certain to acquit him and with just over nine months to go until Election Day, oddsmakers are becoming increasingly sure Trump will see his oath through to the end.”
»MORE: How the Iowa caucuses work, why they're important
The U.S. Constitution requires a two-thirds majority in the Senate, or 67 senators, to convict in an impeachment trial.
Republicans hold 53 seats in the Senate, while Democrats hold 45. However, two Independents — including presidential candidate Bernie Sanders of Vermont — regularly caucus with Democrats, giving the nation’s blue party 47 votes.
If the Senate votes along party lines regarding impeachment — as did the House — 20 Republican senators would have to join Democrats in convicting Trump and removing him from office.
»MORE: British oddsmakers like this Democrat to win White House nomination
The first article of impeachment passed by the House charges Trump with abuse of power.
Democrats allege Trump “solicited the interference of a foreign government, Ukraine, in the 2020 U.S. presidential election. He did so through a scheme or course of conduct that included soliciting the government of Ukraine to publicly announce investigations that would benefit his reelection, harm the election prospects of a political opponent, and influence the 2020 U.S. president election to his advantage.”
The “election prospects of a political opponent” refer to former Vice President Joe Biden, currently a front-runner in a narrowing field of Democratic White House hopefuls.
The president “also sought to pressure the government of Ukraine to take these steps by conditioning official U.S. government acts of significant value to Ukraine on its public announcement of investigations.”
Democrats argue the president “used the powers of his presidency in a manner that compromised the national security of the United States and undermined the integrity of the United States democratic process. He thus ignored and injured the interests of the nation.”
How is your senator trending on impeachment?
About the Author
