As the U.S. approaches 30 million confirmed coronavirus cases while some states are relaxing coronavirus restrictions, some health experts are warning of another COVID surge.
On Monday, figures recorded by Johns Hopkins University of Medicine showed the U.S. with more than 29 million COVID cases, along with more than 525,000 deaths. The nation leads the world in both categories.
While deaths and new confirmed cases have plummeted from their January peaks nationwide, they’re still running at high levels, while outbreak indicators in some states have risen in recent weeks.
In Mississippi, for example, the seven-day rolling average of the virus positivity rate rose from 11.4% on Feb. 19 to 12% on March 5, and the state’s seven-day rolling average of daily deaths increased during the same period from 15 per day to 20.7 per day.
The U.S., according to CNN, averaged about 60,000 new cases daily last week. Epidemiologist Michael Osterholm said the nation is in the “eye of the hurricane” on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday.
Osterholm is worried about the B.1.1.7 variant, first spotted in the U.K.
“Four weeks ago, the B.1.1.7 variant made up about 1 to 4% of the virus that we were seeing in communities across the country. Today it’s up to 30 to 40%,” said Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
“What we’ve seen in Europe, when we hit that 50% mark, you see cases surge,” he said. Osterholm predicted a surge fueled by the variant will come during the next six to 14 weeks.
Public health experts tracking the trajectory of more contagious virus variants have warned that lifting restrictions too soon could lead to another lethal wave of infections. Although vaccination drives are accelerating as drug manufacturers ramp up production, many essential workers are not yet eligible for COVID-19 vaccines in Mississippi and other states.
Alabama’s state health officer on Friday advised residents to keep following standard infection-prevention recommendations even though the governor is letting the state’s mask mandate expire next month.
“There is nothing magical about the date of April 9. We don’t want the public to think that’s the day we all stop taking precautions,” State Health Officer Scott Harris said.
The governors of Iowa, Montana and North Dakota also have ended mask requirements or plan to suspend them soon. The governor of South Carolina on Friday lifted an executive order requiring face coverings in government office buildings and restaurants, leaving it up to state administrators and restaurant operators to develop their own guidelines.
Governors in several other states, including Michigan and Louisiana, eased the operating limits for bars, restaurants and other businesses in recent days.
The National Retail Federation, the largest retail trade association in the U.S., issued a statement Wednesday encouraging shoppers to wear masks. Some retail chains, including Target and supermarket operator Albertson’s, plan to continue requiring them for customers and workers in states that no longer make them mandatory.
George Kelemen, the Texas Retailers Association president and CEO, said he thinks many members will continue to require workers — but not necessarily customers — to wear masks and other protective gear.
“Retailers know their customers best,” he said.
Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, encouraged Americans to “do the right thing” by continuing to abide by recommendations for routine mask use and social distancing — even if their states lift restrictions.
Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine at Vanderbilt University, said individuals who wear masks still risk infection from unmasked shoppers and diners. He called Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s decision to lift COVID-19 restrictions starting March 10 “entirely too soon and entirely too carefree.”
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