Japan's ruling party is certain to lose a majority in the lower house, broadcaster says

TOKYO (AP) — Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba' s ruling coalition is certain to lose a majority in the 465-seat lower house in a key parliamentary election Sunday, Japan's NHK public television said. The results reflect voters' outrage over the governing party's extensive financial scandals.

The loss of a majority would cause political uncertainty in Japan, even though a change of government is not expected.

Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party and its ruling coalition with junior partner Komeito were certain to lose a majority 233 seats in the lower house, the more powerful of Japan's two-chamber parliament, NHK said.

Falling short of a majority does not mean a change of government, but the results would make it difficult for Ishiba to get his party’s policies through parliament, and he may need to find a third coalition partner. The LDP's coalition still retains a majority in the upper house.

Ishiba, who took office on Oct. 1, immediately ordered the election in hopes of shoring up support after his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, failed to address public outrage over the LDP's actions.

“The results so far have been extremely severe, and we take them very seriously," Ishiba told NHK. “I believe the voters are telling us to reflect more and become a party that lives up to their expectations."

If the majority is lost, Ishiba said, the LDP will still lead a ruling coalition and tackle key policies, compile a planned supplementary budget and pursue political reform.

He indicated that the LDP is open to cooperating with opposition groups if that suits the public's expectations.

The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, led by centrist leader Yoshihiko Noda, made huge gains to more than 140 seats, from its previous 98. Noda called the election a rare chance for a change of government, and said he seeks to lead a coalition with other opposition groups to do so. But so far, his party has had trouble finding partners.

For Ishiba, potential additional partners include the Democratic Party of the People, a breakaway group from the CDPJ, which calls for lower taxes, and the conservative Japan Innovation Party, though both currently reject any possible coalition with the LDP or CDPJ.

Ishiba may also face backlash from a number of scandal-tainted lawmakers with former leader Shinzo Abe's faction, whom Ishiba had un-endorsed for Sunday's election in an attempt to regain public support.

The LDP is less cohesive than previously and could enter the era of short-lived prime ministers. Ishiba is expected to last at least until the ruling bloc approves key budget plans at the end of December.

“The public’s criticisms against the slush funds scandal has intensified, and it won’t go away easily,” said Izuru Makihara, a University of Tokyo professor of politics and public policy. “There is a growing sense of fairness, and people are rejecting privileges for politicians.” Makihara suggested Ishiba needs bold political reform measures to regain public trust.

A total of 1,344 candidates, including a record 314 women, were running for office.

NHK exit polls earlier indicated the LDP was expected to win between 153 and 219 seats, down sharply from the comfortable majority of 247 it held previously. Komeito was expected to win 21 to 35 seats.

As of early Monday, LDP won 188 seats and Komei 24 for a total of 212 seats for the ruling coalition, while the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan secured 146 seats, NHK said.

Once a popular politician known for criticism of even his own party's policies, Ishiba has also seen support for his weeks-old Cabinet plunge.

Experts say the CDPJ-led government is not in the picture because of their lack of viable policies, and a possibility of other opposition parties teaming up with the LDP is more likely.

“If they take power and try to change the economic and diplomatic policies of the current government, they will only end up collapsing right away,” Makihara said. Realistically, Ishiba's ruling coalition would seek a partnership with either the Innovation Party of the Democratic Party of the People, he said.

At a downtown Tokyo polling station, a number of voters said they had considered the corruption scandal and economic measures in deciding how to vote. But analysts said Ishiba's LDP was expected to remain the top party in Japan’s parliament as voters were skeptical about the opposition's ability and inexperience.

Ishiba pledged to revitalize the rural economy, address Japan’s falling birth rate and bolster defense. But his Cabinet has familiar faces, with only two women, and was seen as alienating members of the faction led by late premier Shinzo Abe. Ishiba quickly retreated from earlier support for a dual surname option for married couples and legalizing same-sex marriage, an apparent compromise to the party’s influential ultra-conservatives.

His popularity fell because of “the gap in what the public expected him to be as prime minister versus the reality of what he brought as prime minister,” said Rintaro Nishimura, a political analyst at The Asia Group.

___

AP video journalist Mayuko Ono contributed to this report.