TORONTO (AP) — Donald Trump might as well be on the ballot when Canadians vote for a new government.
The U.S. president's trade war and threats to make Canada the 51st state have infuriated Canadians and led to a surge in nationalism that has helped the Liberal Party flip the narrative heading into Monday's parliamentary election, at least in opinion polls.
“Trump is the campaign,” former Quebec Premier Jean Charest said. “The ballot question is who is the person we are going to choose to face Trump. Everything has changed.”
Foreign policy hasn't affected a Canadian election this much since 1988, when, ironically, free trade with the United States dominated the political discourse.
Prime Minister Mark Carney, the Liberal leader who was sworn in on March 14 following Justin Trudeau's resignation, led in the polls heading into Monday, marking a dramatic turnaround for a party that seemed destined for a crushing defeat until Trump started launching broadsides at Canada's economy and sovereignty.
"We are in a crisis. President Trump is threatening Canada, he’s threatening our companies, he’s threatening our workers, he’s threatening the savings of our retirees,” Carney said Tuesday. “This threat is not only an economic threat, it is an existential threat.”
Until a few months ago, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre was seen as a shoo-in to become the next prime minister by shepherding his opposition faction back into power for the first time in a decade.
Trump's tough talk could hurt his ideological allies abroad
Charest, a moderate who led Canada's French-speaking province from 2003-2012, said if Trump wants to help his ideological allies abroad, he needs to tone down the bluster.
"At what point are the Trump folks going to think this thing through and measure what are the consequences?” Charest said.
“In the White House, they should sit down and think about the effect Trump has in the world," he added.
Carney has accused Trump of severing the close relationship that Canada and the U.S. long enjoyed.
Poilievre, meanwhile, would be “very much in sync” with the “new direction in America,” said Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, a Conservative ally.
As such, Poilievre has offered a more muted response to Trump's rhetoric and economic maneuvering, imploring Canadians to deny the Liberals a fourth-straight term after what he described as “a lost Liberal decade.”
What will the result of Canada's election mean for the US?
Trump has threatened to slap steep tariffs on Canadian goods, and both Carney and Poilievre said that, if elected, they would accelerate renegotiations of the countries' free trade deal in an effort to end the uncertainty hurting both of their economies.
Carney plans to diversify Canada's exports and is reviewing the remaining purchase order of U.S. F-35 fighter jets to see if there are other options "given the changing environment." Carney visited Paris and London, not Washington, for his first trips as prime minister.
But almost 80% of Canada's exports go to the U.S.
“Let's be honest, if Canada does a remarkable job — a remarkable job — of diversifying trade, what is that going to look like?" said former Foreign Minister John Baird, noting that even shifting 3% - 5% over five years would be quite an achievement.
“Let’s keep our eye on the main ball. They are 78% of our customers so we need to tackle that challenge," said Baird, a Conservative who works as a senior adviser at a law firm.
What do the polls say?
In a mid-January poll by Nanos, Liberals trailed the Conservative Party by 47% to 20%. In the latest Nanos poll, which was conducted during a three-day period that ended April 26, the Liberals led by 4 percentage points nationally and 6 points in Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, which has 122 of the 343 seats in Parliament. The January poll had a margin of error 3.1 points, while the latest poll had a 2.7-point error margin.
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