DOGE cuts are testing some conservative voters' faith in special election for Matt Gaetz's old seat

PENSACOLA, Fla. (AP) — As the Trump administration forges ahead with its dramatic reshaping of the federal government, voters in a northwest Florida congressional district that's home to thousands of veterans will be among the first to put the president's agenda to an electoral test.

The state's Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, a Republican endorsed by President Donald Trump, is widely expected to win the special election in Florida's 1st Congressional District on April 1 and help pad Republicans' narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. The seat became vacant with the resignation of former Rep. Matt Gaetz in a heavily Republican district.

In a longshot bid, Democrat Gay Valimont is seeking to hinge the race on the Department of Government Efficiency Service's push to fire federal workers and dismantle federal agencies. A win for her would defy decades of political convention and could send loud signals about how the president's aggressive second term in the White House is playing with voters across the political spectrum.

Florida's 1st Congressional District stretches across the state's western Panhandle region and is known for its sugar-sand beaches and sprawling military installations — including the country's largest Air Force base. The district is home to more veterans than any other congressional district in the country and reelected Gaetz to a fifth term in 2024 by a more than 30-point margin over Valimont.

But as Trump's executive orders and the slash-and-burn tactics of billionaire Elon Musk 's DOGE take aim at federal agencies that serve the region's veterans, the faith of some of the district's conservative voters is being tested.

The seat opened up after Trump nominated Gaetz for attorney general. The conservative withdrew from consideration amid an investigation into alleged sexual misconduct, which he has denied.

A district that's home to veterans braces for VA cuts

With more than 89,000 veterans, the 1st District is home to thousands of families who in various ways depend on the federal government, which gives veterans preferential treatment in hiring. According to a state analysis, defense spending accounts for nearly a quarter of northwest Florida’s economy.

A Navy ship docked at a Pensacola port towers over the city’s historic downtown. Local roads bear names like Commander Street and Petty Officers’ Way.

Many service members return to the area to raise families or retire, and they seek care at the Pensacola VA clinic, which staffers say is stretched beyond its capacity.

Tim Chandler, who served 16 years in the Marine Corps, volunteers at the clinic every week, helping his fellow veterans navigate a complicated healthcare system. He applauds the VA's providers, but sees the parking lot jam-packed with cars and hears the stories of patients pushed to their breaking point.

“We need an emergency room," Chandler said. "We need a bigger building. We need incentives for more doctors.”

As DOGE continues its push in the name of rooting out waste, fraud and abuse, federal officials have said they plan to cut more than 80,000 jobs across the Department of Veterans Affairs, an agency long criticized for bureaucratic inefficiency and lengthy wait times.

Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins has said the layoffs won't impact veterans’ health care or benefits. The VA, in a statement, said “mission-critical positions” would be exempt and medical staff and claims processors would not be affected.

Heather Lindsay, a Republican and the mayor of Milton, Florida, in neighboring Santa Rosa County, called the cuts “disastrous,” saying they’re a threat to services that veterans like her brother rely on.

“We have a demonstrated need in this area. And yet they’re going to cut VA services,” Lindsay said in an interview.

Jason Boatwright, a former staffer for Gaetz, said Patronis should be defending the Pensacola VA.

“He needs to stand up and say: ‘You want to make cuts? That’s fine. But don’t do it here. We can’t afford it here,'” Boatwright said.

Lindsay said she doesn't understand “why more questions haven't been asked” by Republican leaders like Patronis.

“It concerns me for our future as a nation,” she said.

A Democrat's longshot bid

Valimont, who previously led the Florida chapter of gun control group Moms Demand Action, has made the chaos unleashed by the Trump administration at federal agencies a centerpiece of her campaign.

"Imagine if Matt Gaetz's seat saves the Department of Education," she told about 150 people at a Pensacola town hall she hosted earlier this month. "We have a shot to make this right. Because y'all, we may save the entire United States with this seat."

The Pensacola Democrat has acknowledged that her party may not be able to “fix” all that the Trump administration has done — but said she can be a backstop to “not do anything worse.”

Patronis, a former state lawmaker who has served as Florida's chief financial officer since 2017, has campaigned as a staunch ally of the president.

In an interview, Patronis said he would challenge Trump if he thought the president's actions were harming northwest Florida — but he dismissed concerns that DOGE's efforts to exert control over congressionally authorized programs are illegal.

“Everything that President Trump has rolled out so far, we’ve been lockstep on,” Patronis said. “If Congress right now had a problem with what the president’s doing, you would see Congress act.”

Trump’s endorsement of Patronis in November appeared to head off a more robust Republican primary. The GOP nominee is expected to win easily, even though he doesn't live in the district — a fact that rankles some local Republicans, though residency isn't required by the Constitution.

Lindsay, the Milton mayor, worries her party's electoral dominance is breeding complacency — among candidates and voters.

“There are a lot of people who think it’s probably not even worth their time,” she said. “Because that leader’s not going to listen to them, because they’re only listening to President Trump and Elon Musk.”

Even in a part of the state where some are afraid to "come out" as Democrats, Valimont hopes to win over conservatives by pounding the all-out effort to slash federal agencies, and tying Patronis to Florida's property insurance crisis. His office helps regulate insurance in the state, which has some of the highest rates in the country.

Valimont's campaign has raised more than $6 million, and party officials say volunteers from as far away as Alaska and Hawaii have come to help get out the vote.

Escambia County Democratic Party Chair Derrick Scott said he thought Valimont has a chance if she can appeal to conservatives "who are willing to take the secret to their grave that they voted for a Democrat this one time.”

For many local Republicans, losing the 1st District seat is unthinkable. Doug Stauffer, chair of the Okaloosa County GOP, says the question isn’t whether his party will win but by how much.

“If we don’t win decisively,” Stauffer said, “then we have failed.”

___ Associated Press writer Mike Schneider in Orlando contributed to this report. Payne is a corps member for The Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues.