Competitive Virginia races could play a critical role in the battle for Congress

Democrat Suhas Subramanyam defeated Republican Mike Clancy in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District — a victory for Democrats hoping to cement their hold on an open House seat in their battle to control Congress.

Democrats sought to maintain the House seat representing a swath of northern Virginia exurbs after incumbent Rep. Jennifer Wexton said she would not run for reelection after being diagnosed with progressive supranuclear palsy.

Subramanyam, formerly a tech adviser under the Obama administration, began his political career as a state lawmaker in 2020, and was elected to the Virginia Senate last November. His campaign against Clancy came after Subramanyam clinched the Democratic nomination in a crowded primary last June.

In a statement, Subramanyam thanked Wexton for her support and described her as a mentor.

“Following in her footsteps will be no easy task, but I will work to continue her legacy,” he said.

This year, federal elections are closer than ever — a slim number of races may determine which party will clinch a congressional majority. In an intense battle over a few seats, competitive districts in Virginia and elsewhere will play a critical role in the fight for the House.

All U.S. House seats were up for election on Tuesday, including eight other districts in Virginia. State Sen. John McGuire also won Virginia's 5th District after narrowly defeating incumbent Rep. Bob Good by less than a percentage point in a bitter primary, which led to a recount in August.

In the 7th District, the race between Vindman and Anderson quickly became one of the most competitive in the country, with Republicans hoping to make gains in districts in which they don't face an incumbent. Vindman, despite being a political newcomer, developed a national profile after blowing the whistle alongside his brother during then-President Donald Trump's first impeachment. The former Army officer focused his campaign around abortion rights and the threat of MAGA extremism on democracy. Anderson, a fellow veteran and former Green Beret, pitched himself as the more affable candidate, and centered his campaign around the economy.

Republicans represented the district for nearly 50 years until Spanberger defeated former Republican Rep. David Brat in 2018.

On Wednesday morning, Anderson issued a statement saying that his team was working to analyze the state of the race considering that “there are thousands of outstanding ballots to count.”

“Many of those ballots will be counted today. Our team is deploying out to canvasses across all 11 localities in VA07 to get an accurate read on all the votes outstanding,” the statement said.

In Fredericksburg Tuesday, 19-year-old Ossien Asiedu's disdain for the top of the Republican ticket helped Vindman pick up a vote.

“I just don’t like Trump at all,” said Asiedu, a University of Mary Washington sophomore who identified as an independent. Asiedu, who registered to vote on Election Day, said he chose all Democrats although knew little about the other races.

Wendy Stone, 50, a lifelong Virginia resident and longtime voter, picked Anderson.

While taking a photo of her grandchildren with a Trump standee, Stone said she liked Anderson's policies and didn't want to support Democrats.

“Vindman lies, just like the top of the Democratic ballot,” Stone said. “You can’t continually misrepresent basic information and expect voters to go with it.”

Robert Gilbert, 63, liked that he saw a Vindman brother on the ballot.

“With his role in Trump’s first impeachment and his credentialed military background, he is the type of candidate I look for,” Gilbert said.

In the 2nd Congressional District, Democrats are putting their weight behind Cotter Smasal to reclaim the House seat after Kiggans ousted former Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria. The 2nd has traditionally been a swing district, oscillating in recent years between Republicans and Democrats who served in the Navy.

Candidate differences have mostly traced the national partisan fault lines. Kiggans focused on issues such as the economy and border security, while Cotter Smasal has centered her campaign on abortion access and defending American democracy following the Jan. 6 insurrection. In a district filled with military veterans, both candidates have cited the need to help veterans and address the rising cost of living.

Preserving the right to an abortion was a driving issue for Hannah Taylor, 34, of Virginia Beach, who voted for Cotter Smasal. Taylor, who just welcomed her first child and plans to have more, was especially concerned about the high mortality rate among Black mothers.

“If I were to be in a situation where a pregnancy didn’t go well or where there’s a chance of me dying or my baby dying, I would want to have the opportunity to do what is best for me,” said Taylor, who works as a case manager helping veterans find housing. “I would want the right to be able to do what I need to do and not die.”

But Jeff Parks, 60, who voted for Kiggans, said issues such as abortion are less relevant in congressional races with the matter now in state lawmakers’ hands.

“I think it’s a deflection away from the economy, inflation and other key issues,” said Parks, who lives outside Parksley on Virginia's Eastern Shore. “Economic development is clearly a top issue. We have very low-median incomes and high prices. We need jobs and lower costs of living.”

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Barakat reported from Falls Church, Virginia, and Finley from Virginia Beach.

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Olivia Diaz is a corps member for The Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues.

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