The American Automobile Association (AAA) is projecting at least 34 million Americans will refrain from traveling during this holiday season because of the coronavirus pandemic.
While AAA expects at least 34 million fewer travelers compared with last year’s holiday season, as many as 84.5 million Americans may still travel from Dec. 23 through Jan. 3, a decline in travel of at least 29%.
“While Thanksgiving is traditionally spent gathering with friends and family, the year-end holidays are when Americans often venture out for longer, more elaborate vacations. That will not be the case this year,” said Paula Twidale, senior vice president of AAA Travel. “Public health concerns, official guidance not to travel and an overall decline in consumer sentiment have encouraged the vast majority of Americans to stay home for the holidays.”
The Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is urging Americans not to travel for the holidays this year, warning that travel increases your chance of getting and spreading COVID-19.
Based on mid-October travel forecast models, AAA expected up to 50 million people would travel for Thanksgiving, which would have been a decline of 10% from 2019. While final Thanksgiving travel numbers are not yet available, AAA is expecting the decline to be closer to 15% to 20%.
Most Americans who decide to travel will do so by car, with road trips accounting for 96% of holiday travel. Up to 81 million Americans will travel by car, a decline of at least 25% compared with last year. Auto travel is expected to replace some trips previously taken by bus, train or airplane, given the flexibility, security and comfort traveling by car provides.
For those who decide to hit the road for the year-end holidays, gas prices remain nearly 50 cents cheaper than this time last year. Recent monthly gas prices are 19% below 2019 averages.
“Typically, cheaper gas prices are an incentive for last-minute trips, especially around the holidays. But the lower prices and less traffic aren’t driving decisions to hit the road. Americans are looking to the public health landscape, including COVID-19 case numbers, to make their travel decisions,” said AAA spokesperson Jeanette Casselano McGee.
Traffic volume, and therefore traffic congestion, during the holiday week is expected to be less than in years past. However, travelers in major urban areas could still experience delays upward of triple normal drive times at popular bottlenecks throughout the day. Nationwide, drivers could see travel times about 20% above normal pandemic congestion levels.
“Despite warnings, Thanksgiving traffic surged more than 30% above the daily pandemic average in some states,” said Bob Pishue, an INRIX transportation analyst. “We expect a similar increase around the upcoming winter holidays unless stricter travel restrictions are put in place and followed.”
AAA’s projections are based on economic forecasting and research by IHS Markit, a London-based business information provider.
