Republicans may make Blue Dogs an endangered species in Georgia this year.
With battles over issues such as health care, as well as a recession whose effects have lingered, Republican candidates in Georgia have seen fresh opportunities to unseat congressional Democrats this year.
The two strongest GOP candidates in competitive races -- Austin Scott and Mike Keown -- aren’t new to politics yet they can offer themselves to voters as figures who don’t represent the Washington political establishment. However, both have a knack for fundraising that makes them solid contenders.
Scott, who is giving U.S. Rep. Jim Marshall of Macon the political fight of his life in the 8th District, has served in the Georgia House for nearly 14 years. Keown, who is taking on longtime U.S. Rep. Sanford Bishop of Albany in the 2nd District, is a former deputy majority whip in the Legislature.
Republican strategists have targeted both congressmen for elimination, which if successful would erase the “blue belt” that stretches across Georgia from Savannah to Columbus and help return the U.S. House to GOP control.
Evidence of GOP hopes for the state can be seen in who’s campaigning for Scott and Keown this week and how much the national party is willing to spend.
U.S. Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio, who would likely become the new speaker if Republicans take back the House, campaigned for Keown on Wednesday after flying to Georgia for a fundraiser for Scott on Tuesday.
Marshall is used to battles because his elongated district in the center of the state tends to vote Republican. Marshall, one of the state’s most conservative Democrats, has voted with Republicans in party fights over health care and global-warming legislation. He recently promised not to vote to reseat Nancy Pelosi as House speaker if he's elected to a fifth term -- a promise the GOP’s rising national tide might make irrelevant.
"They've all been tough, but it is a tougher environment for us this time," said campaign spokesman Doug Moore. "People are real upset because the economy is hurting and that means they're hurting."
Bishop, who has held his seat since 1993, has been able to coast in past elections in his southwest Georgia district until some recent controversies and a GOP challenger with fundraising ability suddenly made him appear vulnerable.
“In this political environment, a lot of races are in play that a lot of people didn’t think would be,” said Andy Sere, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “We’ve reserved $200,000 of advertising time in Sanford Bishop’s district and $300,000 in Jim Marshall’s district. We are invested in both of these races, and they are ones that we think we can win.”
Ned Sanders of Warner Robins believes that to be the case. As the chairman of the Houston County Commission, he has worked with Marshall for years, and he considers him a good man.
Sanders, 79, said when he looks out his commission office window, he can see a long line of early voters waiting to cast ballots in heavily Republican Houston County, which he suspects bodes poorly for Marshall. "A lot of people don't want to vote for Jim Marshall because of his ties to the Democratic Party and Nancy Pelosi," Sanders said, "but he is not necessarily one of Nancy Pelosi's favorite stepchildren."
Asked whether he'll vote for the Democrat he considers a friend and asset to the district or for the Republican to help his party take back the House, Sanders, who retires from the commission this year, demurred. "I'm not blabbing about that," he said.
Two political handicapping sites have moved both Bishop and Marshall more into Republican sights. The Cook Political Report, which in early September had Bishop as having a distinct advantage, has moved his district to the "tossup" category, with Bishop only slightly favored. It also rated the Marshall-Scott race as a "tossup" but favoring the Republican. On Sept. 30, the University of Virginia's Center for Politics changed its rating on Bishop's district from "likely Democrat" to "leans Democrat" and Marshall's race from "leans" to "tossup."
Right now for Democrats outside metro Atlanta, the only possibly safe congressional seat is U.S. Rep. John Barrow of Savannah. His 12th District seat had seemed vulnerable but drew only weak Republican opposition, said University of Georgia professor Charles Bullock, an expert on Peach State politics. In federal campaign finance filings, challenger Ray McKinney reported raising nearly $200,000 by Sept. 30, compared with $1.7 million raised by Barrow.
As a sign of what a dangerous year it is for Democrats, Barrow reported spending $1.3 million by Sept. 30 in campaign funds against McKinney, a nuclear power plant project manager with little national Republican support. Tharon Johnson, a Democratic strategist, said President Barack Obama has a radio ad running in Savannah specifically for Barrow.
The others are running from the president; they have the cash to fight. Bishop reported raising $1.2 million and having $597,374 cash on hand as of Sept. 30, and Marshall reported raising $1.1 million and having $837,899 on hand.
The three congressmen are considered conservative Democrats -- "Blue Dogs." Marshall and Barrow both voted against the Democratic-backed Affordable Health Care for American Act and the American Clean Energy and Security Act, also known as cap-and-trade for a global-warming legislation, both of which Bishop backed.
Keown showed his fund-raising prowess early and reported $868,330 by Sept. 30. The GOP in September started pouring money into the district after a Keown-commissioned poll showed him within striking distance of upsetting Bishop, whose campaign was rocked by two controversies this year. One involved federal funds and another involved Congressional Black Caucus scholarship money he controlled going to family members.
Keown, who trounced two opponents in the Republican primary by winning 80.8 percent of the vote, is capitalizing on the anti-incumbency mood, unemployment, and on Bishop's support of Pelosi-pushed cap-and-trade and the national health care legislation, said campaign spokesman Andrew O'Shea.
"Sanford Bishop ignored the voices in southwest Georgia of, ‘Please vote no on health care and please vote no on cap-and-trade,' " O'Shea said. "What used to be a safe Democratic seat is all of the sudden a tossup."
Babafemi Elufiede, political science professor at Albany State University, said the GOP was pounding Bishop with TV ads highlighting the scholarship controversy, and Bishop has responded by ducking the media. Attempts to reach the Bishop campaign for comment were unsuccessful.
The scholarship controversy surfaced in late summer, coming on the tails of a GBI investigation over possible misuse of federal funds acquired by Bishop. The GBI announced it found no criminal wrongdoing with the federal funds in which Bishop's stepdaughter and son-in-law reportedly got about $15,000 for part-time jobs at a federally funded program in Columbus while working in metro Atlanta.
"The commercial about the money from the scholarship fund that was given to his family members is very, very damaging and, I would say, making a lot of voters think twice," Elufiede said. "His incumbency may save him. He will probably win, but it will be very, very close."
Matt Towery, head of pollster InsiderAdvantage, said Bishop's fate still likely rested in his own campaign, but Marshall may be powerless to stop Scott.
"I'm not saying he is toast, but he has a really tough situation," Towery said.
Towery said if African-Americans turn out in extra large numbers to vote for Democrat Roy Barnes in the governor's race, that would help Marshall fend off Scott. Bullock noted Marshall's district is only about 30 percent black compared with 45 percent in Bishop's district. He discounted Barnes as an asset to the Blue Dogs.
"I think all three of them [Marshall, Bishop and Barrow] run ahead of Barnes," Bullock said. "I see no indication he has the coattails to help any of these folks."
Chris Grant, a political scientist at Mercer University in Macon, said Scott is the strongest candidate Marshall has faced since he beat Mac Collins by 1 percentage point in 2006.
He described Scott as an appealing and well-established legislator from the Tifton area who also reported raising $711,789 by Sept. 30. But Grant cautioned that Marshall is a tenacious campaigner who has won Republican votes. He never takes a political position that antagonizes South Georgia, and he strongly supports the Air Force base in Warner Robins -- the area's biggest employer -- in Houston County, Grant said.
"He has worked hard to establish deep roots in Republican areas -- I even know Republican office holders who say I never vote for any Democrat except Jim Marshall," Grant said. "I don't know if those deep roots will hold this year. They worked in 2004, 2006 and 2008, but Austin Scott is a better candidate."
Bullock, however, noted there is a wild card that could change the dynamic of the campaign. On Oct. 26, there is a Superior Court hearing to decide whether to open Scott's divorce records, which a Democratic blogger contends were improperly sealed in 2001.
"That doesn't give Scott much time to explain his side," Bullock said. "That is going to be new news. Old news doesn't hurt you. New news can hurt you."
Sere, the Republican congressional committee spokesman, is betting that the court case will work against Marshall, whose campaign has denied any involvement in the lawsuit. “It is very risky to go into the personal stuff like that close to the election," Sere said.
Staff writer Aaron Gould Sheinin contributed to this article.
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