There are five men running for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, but only one of them is named Roy Barnes.
That, in the simplest form, is what has come to define the race.
Barnes, the once and possibly future governor, has near universal statewide name recognition that allows him to run as if he’s still an incumbent, plus millions of dollars in campaign cash. Barnes is Goliath and the other four candidates — Attorney General Thurbert Baker, Ray City Mayor Carl Camon, House Minority Leader DuBose Porter and former Adjutant Gen. David Poythress — have yet to prove they have either the slingshot or the stone to slay the giant.
The primary is July 20, just five months away. And while four, maybe five, Republicans have a legitimate shot to be the GOP candidate in November, can anyone not named Barnes win the Democratic nomination?
The other candidates, of course, say yes. They point to their long service in a variety of offices, their past electoral performance, growing cadres of supporters and grassroots volunteers. And they look for inspiration in the strangest of places: the man they hope to replace, outgoing Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue, who beat the incumbent Barnes in 2002 after being outspent $20 million to $3 million.
Poythress campaign manager Wendy Davis said Barnes has already shown once that he can raise a ton of money and blow it.
“I don’t have to prove that Roy can lose,” Davis said. “I think Roy proved it himself.”
But Davis also sees inspiration in Barack Obama winning the Democratic nomination for president over Hillary Clinton.
“A lot of people said Barack Obama was a little nutty,” she said. “Everyone said Hillary Clinton would win. She had the money, the name ID, and she was polling in the high 40s. Well, it turns out the 40s was her ceiling. We feel in a similar way Governor Barnes might be positioned that way.”
Poythress’ plan is to raise just enough money to deliver a message, do the hard, long slog of grassroots organizing and win just enough of the primary vote to force Barnes into an August runoff.
“Once you get into a runoff, you pierce that veil of invincibility,” Davis said.
Baker supporters evoke a similar meme.
Baker campaign manager Jeff DiSantis said Barnes isn’t the answer for Democrats in a year when voters are angry.
“Georgians don’t need a governor who’s interested in settling old personal grudges and refighting political battles from the past,” DiSantis said. “People are hurting. They need a governor who will fight for them, not for himself.”
Johnathan McGinty, an Athens-based Democratic blogger and Porter supporter, said his preferred candidate has developed the relationships at the state and local level through his years of work in the House that will pay dividends come July.
“He has earned a lot of credibility with that,” said McGinty, who writes the Beyond the Trestle blog. “It’s arguably a longer path to victory with that, but it’s the old-fashioned grassroots way to win.”
Porter campaign manager Matt Caseman echoed McGinty.
“DuBose Porter is running a grassroots campaign based on issues and not underestimating the intelligence of the people of Georgia,” Caseman said. “DuBose’s message to stop corruption and start jobs is resonating.”
Allan Crow, an Atlanta-based Democratic consultant who is not affiliated with any candidate, says the anticipated low turnout in the Democratic primary could make things interesting.
“Anything is possible in a low turnout race,” Crow said. “It becomes a different ballgame because it will be a very low turnout and grass roots is important in that.”
But among political consultants, Democratic activists and political scientists interviewed for this story, that’s the most optimistic scenario for the non-Barnes campaigns. And even Crow says Barnes “is certainly positioned to win the race, not only in the primary but depending on who’s the Republican nominee, in the general election.”
As of the end of 2009, Barnes reported having more than $2.2 million in cash in the bank, compared with $875,000 for Baker, $304,000 for Porter, $264,000 for Poythress and $13 for Camon, who even is a long shot among long shots. Independent polling, too, shows Barnes dominating. A December poll by the national firm Rasmussen Reports shows Barnes getting 48 percent of the primary vote to 17 percent for Baker, 4 percent for Poythress, 3 percent for Porter and 1 percent for Camon. A January poll from Rasmussen, too, shows Barnes neck and neck with any of the likely Republican candidates.
Sid Cottingham, a lawyer in South Georgia’s Coffee County, is a Democratic activist who runs the popular Cracker Squire blog. He’s also a Barnes supporter but calls himself a close friend to Porter and Baker. He said those two men have done important things for the party and he laments their decision to stay in the race despite Barnes’ advantages. If they lose the primary, they are both out of office.
“I’m a Democrat. I’m a very moderate Democrat, and our party’s ranks are slim,” he said. “Durn, we need Thurbert and we need DuBose.”
University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock, an expert in Georgia politics who has written extensively about primary and runoff elections, was able to offer some hope to Baker.
“It seems there’s a scenario under which Thurbert Baker could [win],” Bullock said. “For [Porter and Poythress] it’s harder.”
Baker, who is black, would conceivably benefit from a high turnout among African-American voters in the primary. Typically, Bullock said, African-Americans cast about half of all votes in Democratic primaries. In the 2008 presidential primary, black voters cast more than 55 percent of the votes with Obama on the ballot.
But, Bullock acknowledged, there are historic examples that prove and disprove that theory. Denise Majette, who is black, won the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate in 2004 over Cliff Oxford, who is white, despite being outspent and never airing a single television commercial. But in 2008, Regina Thomas, who is black, was trounced by incumbent U.S. Rep. John Barrow, who is white, in the 12th District primary.
So, Bullock said, Baker’s path is rocky. But any path for Porter and Poythress is downright treacherous. Porter could try to rally fellow lawmakers to his cause. But, Bullock said, “If you were an important player under the Gold Dome, walk two blocks in any direction from the Gold Dome and see how many people know who the hell you are.”
Poythress, a former secretary of state and labor commissioner, has been out of office for several years. “It’s not likely there are many voters out there who remember voting for him or worked on his campaign or are going to be involved and spread the word to their friends,” Bullock said.
The essential problem for Baker, Porter and Poythress comes down to a Catch-22 of cash and name recognition. Without the name recognition, it’s more difficult to raise money. Without money, it’s nearly impossible to raise your name recognition because the best, and some say only, way to raise name recognition in a state as large as Georgia is through television advertising. And without money, there’s no television advertising.
Crow, the Democratic consultant, said that’s a huge problem for Baker, Porter and Poythress.
“I hate to keep getting back to that, but if the fund-raising edge is just really huge, it’s going to make a difference,” he said.
CAMPAIGN CASH
Who has what in the bank
Democrats
Roy Barnes $2.23 million
Thurbert Baker $874,564
DuBose Porter $303,808
David Poythress $264,353
Carl Camon $13
Republicans
John Oxendine $2.20 million
Eric Johnson $1.30 million
Nathan Deal $940,275
Karen Handel $439,998
Austin Scott $159,052
Jeff Chapman $17,834
Source: Campaign finance reports filed with the State Ethics Commission
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