Wildfires are burning across the South. Here’s why more could be on the way

Fed by blustery winds and dry conditions, more than 100 wildfires sparked across Georgia over the weekend, scorching roughly 2,390 acres.

The Carolinas were hit even harder. Firefighting crews on Sunday were battling more than 175 blazes that had erupted in recent days, prompting evacuations in several counties, including near Myrtle Beach. Alabama, too, has seen wildfires burn thousands of acres.

The National Weather Service issued another fire danger statement for all of central and North Georgia through 7 p.m. Monday.

Credit: AP

Credit: AP

Smoke from the fires was also affecting air quality in parts of Georgia.

The air quality was considered “unhealthy” around Macon and Warner Robins on Monday, near where one of the state’s most stubborn fires has been burning, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Pollution at those levels is risky for the general public to breathe, but it’s especially dangerous for those with respiratory conditions. Pockets of metro Atlanta were also seeing moderate concentrations of particle pollution Monday.

Fires this time of year are not unusual — Georgia typically sees most of its fire activity between February and May, according to the Georgia Emergency Management and Homeland Security Agency.

Credit: Georgia Forestry Commission

Credit: Georgia Forestry Commission

But the factors that converged to spawn these infernos are not likely to abate any time soon, and experts say more fires could be on the horizon.

Dry winter, La Nina partly to blame

Wildfires need a spark to ignite, but they also need fuel in the form of dry vegetation. Georgia has plenty of that right now, thanks to a deepening rainfall deficit that dates back to December.

Large portions of South and Middle Georgia have received anywhere from 4 to 8 inches fewer of rain than normal over the last three months, data from the Southeastern Regional Climate Center shows.

Credit: Anadolu via Getty Images

Credit: Anadolu via Getty Images

The lack of rainfall is partly because of the weak La Nina in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which influences global weather patterns. La Nina winters typically bring warmer and drier than normal conditions to the southern half of the U.S.

Pam Knox, an agricultural climatologist at the University of Georgia, said the widespread fires are “just one symptom of this dry winter.”

Now that the calendar has turned to March and warmer temperatures have arrived, plants are beginning to grow. As they spring to life, the plants suck moisture from the ground and further deplete water reserves. And without rain, new vegetation can quickly succumb to heat stress and turn into fresh fuel for fires, Knox said.

Precipitation is on the way that could provide short-term relief for the Peach State. Parts of Georgia could see just over an inch of rain Wednesday, the National Weather Service predicts.

Farther out, the odds of soaking rains that could extinguish the fire threat look slim, Knox said.

“There is still the chance there could be a change of pattern to something wetter, but I don’t see that on the horizon, so I fear things will get worse over the next few weeks,” Knox said.

Long-term fire risk likely to grow

Georgia’s wildfire risk pales in comparison to Western states like California, where devastating fires tore through Los Angeles just weeks ago.

The Peach State has averaged about 1,200 wildfires a year lately. That’s a historical low, according to the Georgia Forestry Commission, which issues permits for controlled burns under proper conditions.

But Georgia, like many other states, is likely to see more frequent and intense fires as the climate changes.

A 2022 analysis by the climate risk and data analytics firm First Street found about 187,600 Georgia properties — about 4% of the total in the state — that have at least a 1% chance of being damaged by wildfire within the next three decades, or at least a 0.03% chance of being damaged by wildfire each year. By 2050, that number is expected to grow to 530,000 properties.

The risk is expected to be greatest in South Georgia counties, where the bulk of the state’s commercial timberlands are. First Street says the growing risk is because of trends associated with human-caused climate change: higher temperatures, more persistent drought conditions, shifting humidity patterns and increased availability of fuel from dry vegetation.

A note of disclosure

This coverage is supported by a partnership with Green South Foundation and Journalism Funding Partners. You can learn more and support our climate reporting by donating at ajc.com/donate/climate.