Many Georgians woke up to a blast of cold Thursday morning, but when winter officially arrives later this year, federal forecasters say the chilly temperatures typical of the season could be in short supply.
The winter outlook released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts Georgia and most of the Southern U.S. will likely feel warmer than normal during December to February.
The chances for above-average temperatures are greatest around metro Atlanta and in the southern half of the state, with slightly lower odds in north Georgia. Over the past three decades, a “normal” winter in Atlanta has meant daily highs in the mid-to-high 50s and lows in the upper 30s, according to National Weather Service data. January is typically the city’s coldest month.
So far, 2024 has been one of the hottest years on record in Georgia.
Average temperatures statewide have already been warmer than normal so far in 2024. Data for September is not available yet, but the first eight months of this year were the sixth hottest such period on record for Georgia, according to NOAA.
The agency predicts precipitation may be scarce in the Peach State this winter, too.
NOAA’s projections show the odds tipping toward drier than normal conditions across most of the state, particularly in Deep South Georgia.
The drier, warmer than normal winter conditions expected are typical of a La Niña, a phenomenon characterized by a cooling of waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which influences global weather patterns. While the Pacific is stuck in neutral currently, NOAA says there’s a 60% chance La Nina will emerge before the end of November and persist into early next year.
The upcoming La Nina is expected to be fairly puny and short-lived, but experts say it will still have a significant effect on winter in Georgia.
“In a weak La Nina, we expect the jet stream that steers winter storms around to be pushed to the north over the Ohio River basin, leaving most of the Southeast warmer and drier than usual due to the displacement of the storms,” said Pam Knox, an agricultural climatologist at the University of Georgia.
The forecast for a warm winter also reflects the influence of human-caused climate change. Average temperatures are rising year-round, but winter is warming faster than any other season, Knox added.
Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC
Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC
Georgia has had several unusually warm winters lately which have bedeviled the state’s farmers, particularly fruit growers.
Blueberries and peaches — the state’s two most valuable fruit crops — need to spend a certain amount of time in the cold to produce healthy buds and, later, fruit. A lack of “chill hours” can impair the plants’ ability to set healthy fruit. At the same time, warm temperatures in winter can trick plants into thinking it’s safe to bloom, putting the delicate flowers at risk if a late winter or early spring freeze occurs.
After a record warm start to 2023, nearly all of Georgia’s peach crop was wiped out by cold snaps in March. Georgia blueberries have also been nipped badly by freezes, most recently in 2022.
A note of disclosure
This coverage is supported by a partnership with Green South Foundation and Journalism Funding Partners. You can learn more and support our climate reporting by donating at ajc.com/donate/climate.
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