The state’s economy added just 2,600 jobs in July, slightly fewer than average, echoing the national deceleration that has again raised concerns about a recession, the Georgia Department of Labor said Thursday.
The unemployment rate is still historically low at 3.4%, but it ticked up from 3.3% in June, the fourth consecutive month of increase, officials said.
“We are definitely seeing a slight slowing — not falling off a cliff — but the Atlanta economy is just not as robust as it was a year ago,” said Amy Mangan, market director in Atlanta for Robert Half, a global staffing company.
For more than a year, the economy has been chugging forward against high interest rates, which make borrowing more costly for companies and consumers alike. Add to that a heightened political uncertainty as voters face dramatically different alternatives.
Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady — followed by a weaker-than-expected national jobs report and higher unemployment — renewed worry about recession and triggered a traumatic plunge in the stock market.
The drop was followed in the next few days by a strong rally.
“We’re getting an emotional, economic, whiplash,” Mangan said.
But with growth decelerating, economists have worried that hiring has been hesitant and uneven.
During the month, jobs were added in hospitality, logistics and support services, the Department of Labor said. Among the sectors where jobs were shed was the category that includes the film industry.
About 185,000 people in the state are unemployed — out of work but searching for a job.
Even when the jobless rate is low, tens of thousands of people are unemployed and looking for a job. Many are between jobs after quitting, many are new graduates, some are new to Georgia, others have decided — after divorce, parenthood, illness or other reasons — to go back into the workforce.
And some have been laid off.
Cindy Avery Gardiner has been looking for work since she lost her job as a digital sales and marketing person last month, laid off along with her boss and some other colleagues. She’s mounting a full-court press to find a new position.
“I’ve been on every career site — Indeed, CareerBuilder, LinkedIn,” she said. “I am applying for as many positions as possible. I am also networking as much as I can.”
Gardner, who lives in Canton, said she feels like she needs to find another job.
“My husband doesn’t make a lot. He’s a teacher,” she said. “If I go another month, maybe I’ll be visiting my local Target and say, ‘Hey, are you hiring?’”
Overall, layoffs are relatively few: New jobless claims were lower than a year ago, the Department of Labor said.
The jobless rate is lower than pre-pandemic and — while up slightly — the unemployment rate in July was the same as the record pre-pandemic low reached during the final days of the late 1990s boom.
The data — a few layoffs, but modest hiring — echoes the buzz among companies, said Tom Leeper, vice president at Sevenstep, a recruitment and talent search company. “We do see some clients being kind of nervous. They’re putting positions on hold. But they are not cancelling them.”
That caution could just be temporary, he said. “Historically, election years have kind of been wonky for the job market.”
During the past year, Georgia has added 77,600 jobs, 1.6% expansion, which is slightly slower than the national pace during that time. Through the winter of 2023, Georgia jobs were growing at an annual clip of 3% or better.
Job openings still far outnumber job-seekers, but the number of advertising positions has fallen dramatically.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty,” said Christopher Fagan, a partner with Atlanta-based accounting firm Moore Colson. “So, people are struggling with how to proceed on large projects.”
Delay often feels like the safest course, he said. “We are seeing that in a lot of our clients, deferring things to 2025.”
Hiring workers is expensive, a commitment to a vetting process as well as a higher payroll. But if things go wrong, layoffs can be costly too, disrupting operations and poisoning morale. So, when companies are uncertain, sometimes they take on temporary or contract workers, rather than full-timers.
Temp and contract workers are less of a gamble, so staffing companies can often tell when the economy is hitting a rough, uncertain patch. Because even a business worried about the future doesn’t want to leave money on the table if it can cash in with temps.
“We work with a tool maker that has committed to contractors for long-term assignments — sometimes two-plus years,” said Mangan at Robert Half. “They have work to be done right now.”
Georgia job change, July
Best, pre-pandemic: 55,300 (1996)
Worst, pre-pandemic: -20,900 (2002)
Average, pre-pandemic: 4,600
Recent: 2,600
Georgia unemployment rate, July
Best, pre-pandemic: 3.6% (2000)
Worst, pre-pandemic: 10.7% (2009)
Average, pre-pandemic: 6.0%
Recent: 3.4% (2024)
Sources: Georgia Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
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