Democrats outperform Republicans on job creation, not on inflation, history shows

While the job is a lot broader than that — and while the president’s actual ability to shape the economy is a lot more limited than many people seem to think — the economy typically looms large in a presidential campaign.

One advantage Donald Trump has had is being seen as better for the economy than his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, although his edge has been shrinking, polls have shown.

That upper hand — at least in the public perception — is long-standing.

Republicans historically have had a polling advantage with voters typically believing they are better at handling the economy.

With the economy so crucial and Trump and Harris holding such intensely opposed views, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution put out a call for questions from readers to see what they want to know about.

Not surprisingly, a number wanted more clarity on the economy.

AJC reader Kelvin Phillips asks: “Is it true that since 1989 under the same number of presidents from each party, that Democrats have produced fifty million jobs and Republicans one million?”

In short, that’s pretty close. (Democratic presidents have tallied more than 52 million and Republicans a little more than 1 million since 1989.)

But, we thought that out of fairness, 1989 might not be the best place to start, as it would mean five Democratic presidential terms to four Republican ones. So, we went back two more presidents, to include Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter. Four Republicans, four Democrats. Six presidential terms each.

First, it’s important to note that presidents get far too much credit for what goes right on the economy and far too much blame for what goes bad. (Editor’s note: The author of this story is the co-author of a book on this subject.)

To take a high-profile example: oil.

No matter how much oil the U.S. produces — and it currently pumps more than ever — the price is subject to global markets. Spikes in the price of oil — which causes much higher gas and diesel prices — have come before most recessions.

When the price of oil more than doubled during the Arab Oil Embargo of the early 1970s, short of occupying Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq, there wasn’t much former Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford could do. When a few years later, the Iranian Revolution led to oil prices more than doubling again — as shortages forced drivers to sit in long lines — Carter was stymied.

And Carter was defeated in his bid for reelection.

In 1990, the nation slipped into recession after Iraq invaded Kuwait and oil prices more than doubled. Then-President George H.W. Bush mounted a war that ended the occupation, but it was his successor, Bill Clinton, who enjoyed the economic growth sparked by the fall in prices.

Interest rates are often pegged to decisions made by the Federal Reserve, the nation’s central bank. The Fed cranked interest rates to record highs in 1980 and 1981, spurring one recession in Carter’s last year and another, deeper downturn in Reagan’s first two.

But presidents are typically judged on results, whether or not they had control.

As card players know, you have to play the hand you are dealt.

When Reagan ran for reelection, unemployment and inflation were both high — but they were coming down steadily. He campaigned on “Morning in America” and won 49 states.

Among GOP presidents, Reagan is at the top: 16.1 million jobs added in his two terms.

But overall, Clinton scores highest with 24.4 million jobs during his eight years in the White House.

Some Democrats like to compare their party’s performance against the Republican presidents but to start counting after Reagan. And sure, if we take away Reagan, then Democrats have a sizable lead.

From 1989 on, the nation has added about 60 million jobs with the three Democrats in the White House and 1.3 million with the Republicans.

But that seems like cherry-picking.

Let’s go head to head — four Republicans, four Democrats, measured from inauguration to inauguration.

It’s not scientific. Each president who inherits a recession gets some job loss baked into his data. And the converse, each president taking office during a boom economy inherits some good numbers.

But that’s the political reality — you play the hand you are dealt.

So, here’s the count: The last four Republican presidents presided over a total of 17.4 million new jobs. The last four Democrats, including Biden, whose term ends in January, were in the White House for 60 million new jobs as of October.

Key economic figures by president and by party

Jobs added

Republicans

Democrats

Average yearly increase in inflation**

Average annual gains in salary and wages***

Notes