In Georgia, economic concerns around coronavirus are modest for now

Yet the state’s economist said he still expects relatively little overall economic fallout in Georgia from the outbreak.

“Georgia’s economy is so large and diverse that it is really hard to see the impacts of something like the coronavirus at this point,” Jeff Dorfman, a University of Georgia professor appointed by the governor as the state fiscal economist, told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Monday.

“I think we will have an impact but it will be very small,” Dorfman added.

China is an important market, manufacturing hub and supplier for many Georgia businesses. Disruptions in the supply chain could force companies to scramble for alternatives, creating challenges in the coming weeks and months. Last week, Gov. Brian Kemp warned coronavirus could slow trade in the short term at Georgia's growing ports.

While the coronavirus has surged recently in Italy and South Korea, it is still largely centered in China, Georgia’s biggest international trade partner.

China accounts for 10% of Coca-Cola’s drink volume. And the country is a crucial manufacturing hub and supplier for many Georgia companies, such as tractor maker AGCO, which has plants there, and kids clothing maker Carter’s.

Delta in early February suspended all of its flights to China, including its Atlanta-Shanghai route. Chief Executive Officer Ed Bastian said the China flights made up about 2% of the airline’s revenues.

The carrier on Monday said it is now allowing people with flights booked to, from or through Seoul, South Korea through April 30 to change travel plans without paying a change fee.

The International Air Transport Association, a trade group of the world’s airlines, estimates that global airline traffic will be reduced by 4.7% by the virus – the first overall decline in demand since 2009.

An assortment of other locally based businesses have yet to predict any significant long-term impacts from the coronavirus.

That doesn’t mean they’ve given the all clear, though. Several have talked about impact on quarterly sales and profits. And “monitoring” or some words to that effect are a common refrain among companies.

That includes Kia, which operates a sprawling vehicle assembly plant in West Point, and Home Depot, which reports quarterly results Tuesday morning.

“We’re in constant touch with our suppliers and are making contingency plans to ensure minimal impact to our supply chain,” a Home Depot spokeswoman wrote in an email to the AJC.

Sandy Springs-based UPS said Monday the impact on its business “is yet to be quantified, but given the scale and ongoing challenges with resumption of business activities in China, there will be some impact in our international segment this quarter.”

The package delivery giant said demand has slowed but that it is still flying into and out of China.

Coca-Cola said last week that while it expects ripple effects from the outbreak to cut into short-term sales and profits, it still anticipates meeting its financial projections for the full year.

AGCO told analysts earlier this month that its manufacturing operations in China could be impacted and eventually it could see disruptions in getting parts to its other factories and supplying products to customers. But at the time, the company said, production levels were secured probably through at least mid-March.

Holiday Inn parent InterContinental Hotels, which has significant offices in metro Atlanta, warned earlier this month that its bookings were down in China and it had closed or limited operations in many of its hotels there, a fast-growing market, according to Reuters. The news agency said the company’s chief executive described the decline as “a short-term blip.”

How stock prices of some Georgia companies changed Monday:

Home Depot: -2.21%

Coca-Cola Company: -2.46%

Delta Air Lines: -6.29%

UPS: -3.39%

Southern Company: -1.72%

AGCO: -1.56%

Aflac: -4.46%