Why Kemp is confident Hill, Tippins voters are moving toward him

Nearly two weeks after the primary, Republicans Hunter Hill and Clay Tippins still haven't endorsed anyone in the GOP runoff for governor. But Secretary of State Brian Kemp is confident their voters are moving in his direction.

The Kemp campaign released an internal poll that showed 52 percent of Hill voters are backing Kemp, compared to 34 percent who support Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle in the July 24 runoff. The poll showed nearly 60 percent of Tippins voters back Kemp, with 30 percent lined up behind Cagle.

The poll was funded by the campaign, and should be viewed through that prism. But this poll, like others released by campaigns, offers clues on the strategy that Kemp will take over the next two months in an increasingly bitter matchup against Cagle.

Hill, a former state senator, and Tippins, an executive at an international consulting firm, are being courted by both runoff candidates. Neither has signaled which they will support, but both clashed more fiercely with Cagle throughout the campaign than Kemp.

Cagle's campaign scoffed at the poll, saying their numbers show he has a "commanding lead" in the runoff. He has assailed Kemp over his stake in an agricultural firm that has struggled.   

“We don’t need to poll to know what Georgia voters will decide after realizing the astonishing scope of Brian’s incompetence,” said Scott Binkley, Cagle’s campaign manager.

The lieutenant governor garnered nearly 40 percent of the vote in the May 22 primary, and Kemp finished in second thanks to strong support in rural Georgia. Cagle preferred to face Kemp in the runoff – he attacked Hill in the closing days of the race – but Kemp hopes to make him regret his strategy.

The winner faces Democrat Stacey Abrams in November. (She released her own internal poll a few days ago; here's our take.)

Here are some other findings of Kemp's internal poll, which you can find here:

• Cagle and Kemp are in a statistical tie, with Cagle leading Kemp 46-45. Nine percent of voters are undecided. Both are roughly evenly matched in terms of voter intensity.
• More evidence why GOP candidates are taking the Deal administration's warning not to insult the governor's legacy seriously: About 80 percent of GOP voters say the state is headed in the right direction, and 88 percent approve of Gov. Nathan Deal's track record.
• Heard enough about guns? Expect to hear more. The Kemp poll showed he's outdoing Cagle by a 50-42 margin among voters who consider themselves "strong" NRA supporters. Cagle earned the NRA's endorsement despite Kemp's plea that the gun group stay out of the race.

Read more recent AJC stories on the Georgia race for governor