After clinching the National League East title last weekend, the Braves plan to rest key players and shoot for home-field advantage (sort of) while waiting to see who they'll face in the NLDS next week. It's looking like it will be the Dodgers, who entered Tuesday leading the Rockies by 1-1/2 games in the NL West with five to go.
The Braves will be underdogs against the Dodgers, who won five of seven games in their season series. It’s appropriate that the Braves end up as plucky postseason challengers. Pretty much every preseason projection, both statistical and human, had them finishing fourth in the East.
The Braves are, as they say, playing with house money. That’s not a smart way to approach investments, gambling or otherwise, but it’s a great position for the Braves. They have nothing to lose because falling to the Dodgers would not diminish their accomplishments.
But the Braves can beat the Dodgers. I say that not just because unexpected outcomes are more likely in a five-game series than over a 162-game season. There are sound reasons to believe the Braves can take three of five from the Dodgers.
I like the platoon matchups for the Braves. The Dodgers would deploy one left-handed starter, ace Clayton Kershaw. Right-hander Walker Buehler probably would be No. 2, but manager Dave Roberts’ other likely options are all lefties: Rich Hill, Alex Wood and Hyun-Jin Ryu.
The Braves have been very good against left-handed pitchers this season, despite the heart of their order featuring lefty sluggers Nick Markakis and Freddie Freeman. Freeman has been great against lefties, Markakis has been good and the righties and switch hitters have raked vs. left-handers: Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Johan Camargo, Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki.
It’s possible that Roberts would use Kershaw on three days’ rest in a theoretical Game 4. Kershaw is among the best lefties ever, and he’s been better in the second half of this season than the first. But his strikeout rate is down this year from his usual standards, and he’s posted a so-called “reverse split” with better results against right-handed batters. (Also, Kershaw’s career postseason results have been so-so.)
The Dodgers are the NL’s best offensive team. They have lots of lineup flexibility. Roberts has aggressively used platoons, especially since the Dodgers acquired right-handed bats Manny Machado, David Freese and Brian Dozier.
The good news for the Braves is that two of their likely postseason starters, righties Anibal Sanchez and Kevin Gausman, have posted reverse splits over their careers. Another, Mike Foltynewicz, has had similarly strong results against lefties and righties this season. Roberts’ platoons could be less effective against the Braves.
The Braves’ rotation gets dicey after those three. Every time it appears Julio Teheran has figured things out he turns in another clunker. The Dodgers haven’t hit lefties well this season, but Braves left-hander Sean Newcomb has been mostly bad since June (and the Dodgers can counter with that righty platoon).
But the Dodgers have had their own rotation issues behind Kershaw, Buehler and Ryu. Hill has posted a 5.09 ERA in four September starts (though he’s still recording lots of strikeouts). Roberts demoted Wood to the bullpen last week.
The Dodgers have had better results from their bullpen than the Braves. The margin hasn’t been large. Entering Tuesday Dodgers relievers had a 3.5 fWAR compared with 3.2 for the Braves. Braves relievers issue walks at a higher rate, which is a big problem, but the Dodgers’ bullpen gives up more home runs.
If the Dodgers have substantial edges in starting pitching and hitting, then the Braves have a big defensive advantage. The Dodgers have a lot more postseason experience — they played in the last World Series — but that doesn’t seem to correlate with postseason success, according to Sabemetrics studies of the topic.
The Dodgers should be favored over the Braves because of the things that do matter. Before Tuesday’s games the Dodgers’ NL-leading run differential (plus-176) was 64 better than the Cubs. The Dodgers led the league in scoring by a margin of 22 runs over the Cardinals. They had the NL’s best staff ERA, more than a quarter-run better than the Cubs.
And yet there is the feeling that the Dodgers have underachieved, even accounting for star shortstop Corey Seager playing just 26 games because of injury. They haven’t been the juggernaut their talent and $197 million payroll suggest.
The Braves have overachieved relative to expectations. They are a young team with a modest payroll. There is potential for growth on the big-league roster and a pipeline still filled with prospects. Baseball is hard to predict but, chances are, if the Braves don’t make a run this year they’ll have plenty more cracks at it over the next few.
That’s why I suspect Braves supporters wouldn’t be too disappointed if their team lost a series to the Dodgers. But there are good reasons to believe the Braves can beat them.
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