I look at the Braves and I chuckle about how perception works. Brian Snitker has made many of the same decisions as Fredi Gonzalez but, because the Braves are winning more, the interim manager gets praise and credit where the former manager earned blame and scorn.
Gonzalez took heat (after the fact, of course) for pulling starting pitchers "too soon." Snitker yanked Mike Foltynewicz in the sixth inning Monday after he allowed a lead-off hit, just his third of the game, with the Braves leading the Giants 5-1. "Folty" had thrown 89 pitches. The Braves won, though, so good decision!
Gonzalez was dinged for how he used his bullpen. Snitker has already had a game where he literally used up his bullpen , with four pitchers facing one batter. Back-to-back games were lost when Snitker's newly-promoted reliever, Bud Norris, gave up leads.
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Some fans didn’t like it when Gonzalez didn’t play rookie Mallex Smith against most left-handed pitchers. Snitker has done the same and the first time he made an exception, Smith went 0-for-3 against Pirates lefty Jeff Locke. Smith now is 3-for-32 against lefties with 11 strikeouts and two walks.
Many Braves backers criticized Gonzalez because he wasn't “fiery” enough and thus his players weren’t motivated. I covered Gonzalez for a while and while I’m just getting to know Snitker but my initial assessment is that Snitker is even more laid back than Gonzalez. But the Braves have played better because, I guess, Snitker isn't Gonzalez?
Every manager who doesn't have eight no-brainer guys to play every day gets dinged for their lineup and Gonzalez was no exception. Snitker has shaken up the lineup a few times but the results have varied, with the Braves' fortunes generally depending on hitting home runs or players getting hits with runners on base—perhaps because Snitker motivated them to get big hits?
Some Braves players said they believed that taking a looser approach during batting practice contributed to their homer surge in Pennsylvania. Freddie Freeman was skeptical about a cause-and-effect and Snitker himself said he didn't want guys going to the plate thinking about homers but, no matter, must be because of "Snit."
Look, none of this is meant as an assessment of Snitker’s performance one way or the other. It’s also not to say that Gonzalez was a particularly great manager, or that the Braves were wrong to let him go. They made a business decision to fire a guy in a position that doesn't enjoy much job security. It happens.
Rather, it's a reminder that there aren't many managers who have proven they influence wins and losses over the long haul. Strategy advantages are incremental, especially as more managers use sabermetrics data to inform their decisions. The Braves won't be much better until they get better players.
With those factors in mind, how can anyone rate Snitker’s performance after just 13 games? You can’t, but it will be done anyway. I get it. People want to believe they are "right" and they want their team to win.
Those fans who wanted Gonzalez gone will apply some causation to the correlation. The Braves are winning at a higher clip under Snitker than they did before, thus it must be because of Snitker. That would mean these past 13 games are a better reflection of the team's potential than the previous 37 and that these Braves really aren't among the worst teams in franchise history.
All of that could be true but, again, I’m skeptical that more than a handful of managers really make a big difference. I’m certain it’s impossible to tell if Snitker has done so in just 13 games. It makes for a happy and tidy story, though, so I get the temptation to go with it.
I'd rather wait and see.
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