Sports

Maxwell Semifinal Summary: Packers pummel Hawks, Man eats floppy disk

By Loren Maxwell
Dec 7, 2015

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2015 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results from this past week:

- It probably went unnoticed....(Smile), but yes, the computer pegged Mill Creek by a field goal over Colquitt County in the semifinal game. And yes, the computer went 7-7 in all semifinal games, matching the analytical power of a flipped coin. But just like the computer has some outstanding weeks, some weeks just go this way as well. So, in return, I've received my fair share of ribbing here and over at the Vent, which I gladly accept and in that spirit I am eating an old floppy disk I found (Ok, figuratively, not literally -- let's be reasonable here). I also tip my hat to those who, ahead of the game, are willing to join me in posting their predictions. It makes for interesting discussion in the "dead time" between Friday nights.

However, being a numbers guy, I've noticed a tendency for some to make broad statements such as "the computer's been inaccurate all year" or "he's been wrong about my team for the last three games" or "Maxwell has not picked a single game correctly since 1997" or whatever. I don't necessarily have a problem with these statements but often they are just flatly wrong. For anyone willing to research it, my picks have been publicly posted on AJC.com for at least the last three years and in the GHSF Daily since 2010. I've also on more than one occasion looked up the actual record myself when asked. So please, my only request is to just look up the actual record first before posting something.

And if your team was short changed by the computer, by all means make me the target of a nice roasting in good spirit . . . Which is even more fun with those who are willing to admit when the math got the better of them as well.

For the record, however, the computer's projection accuracy is 1,768-436 on the year (80.2%). This includes 136-42 (76.4%) in the playoffs. Again, anyone can look it up here on the AJC and verify.

- On a more serious note -- has anyone noticed the outstanding program Rush Propst has quietly built down at Colquitt County? After this past weekend's rout of Mill Creek, Colquitt County's rating is back above 100 for the first time since early this season. For those unfamiliar, a rating of 100 is designed to be a milestone in the program. It's the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. If Colquitt County wins this weekend against Roswell, they are certain to finish above 100 for the second year in a row, joining some of the elite teams in history. Below is a list of who's done it before, in chronological order. See if you can recognize any of these coaches and teams:

- Although much of the attention is on Class AAAAAA, five of the six classification actually have new number one teams in the ratings after the semifinal games. In every class, the computer's number two team played the top rated team in the semifinals and the number two team prevailed with the exception of Calhoun losing to Blessed Trinity. This week, the top three classifications will again feature the top two rated teams.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.10%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,041 of 2,234 total games including 2 tie(s) (91.41%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.05 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 1.66

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Colquitt County 14-0 101.59 1 Allatoona 13-1 75.31
2 Roswell 14-0 95.65 2 Glynn Academy 12-2 72.09
3 Mill Creek 13-1 91.40 3 Northgate 12-2 71.06
4 Grayson 13-1 90.47 4 Stockbridge 12-1 69.41
5 Archer 11-2 87.78 5 Ware County 11-3 69.27
6 McEachern 10-2 82.33 6 Houston County 11-2 68.83
7 Camden County 10-2 81.46 7 Mays 10-2 67.94
8 Peachtree Ridge 8-4 78.91 8 Stephenson 9-2 66.74
9 Lowndes 6-5 72.19 9 Starr's Mill 10-2 65.01
10 Valdosta 8-4 70.55 10 Coffee 10-2 64.73
11 Central Gwinnett 7-5 69.81 11 Lanier 11-1 63.28
12 Walton 9-2 69.41 12 Jones County 9-2 62.61
13 South Forsyth 11-2 68.93 13 Northside (Warner Robins) 9-2 62.53
14 Collins Hill 7-6 68.03 14 Drew 9-4 62.03
15 Westlake 10-3 67.73 15 Dalton 9-3 61.85
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 13-1 81.33 1 Blessed Trinity 13-0-1 69.41
2 Cartersville 14-0 78.01 2 Calhoun 13-1 64.14
3 Woodward Academy 13-1 74.56 3 Jefferson 10-2 56.52
4 Bainbridge 13-1 66.89 4 Cedar Grove 11-2-1 55.28
5 Sandy Creek 9-3 63.25 5 Westminster (Atlanta) 10-4 53.21
6 St. Pius X 10-3 60.31 6 Elbert County 10-3 51.59
7 Marist 10-3 59.38 7 Peach County 9-3 47.07
8 Thomson 11-2 59.20 8 Dodge County 11-1 45.00
9 Worth County 8-4 58.07 9 Oconee County 9-3 44.73
10 Jonesboro 11-2 57.77 10 Callaway 10-2 44.68
11 Spalding 10-2 55.21 11 Adairsville 11-2 44.53
12 Mary Persons 11-1 54.17 12 Westside (Macon) 9-4 43.68
13 Liberty County 8-4 52.01 13 Hart County 7-4 42.53
14 Carrollton 6-6 51.00 14 Jackson 9-3 42.25
15 Burke County 7-4 49.12 15 Spencer 8-4 40.18
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Fitzgerald 13-1 63.44 1 Eagle's Landing Christian 10-3 59.78
2 Greater Atlanta Christian 12-2 59.93 2 Prince Avenue Christian 12-1 53.35
3 Benedictine 12-1 58.21 3 Aquinas 12-1 47.50
4 Pace Academy 12-2 55.70 4 Clinch County 12-1 46.21
5 Brooks County 10-3 51.39 5 Irwin County 10-2-1 44.14
6 Jefferson County 11-3 49.99 6 Mount Paran Christian 10-2 42.56
7 Wesleyan 9-3 49.81 7 Stratford Academy 9-4 39.61
8 Rabun County 11-2 49.64 8 Emanuel County Institute 11-2 38.54
9 Lovett 6-6 48.46 9 Commerce 9-4 37.53
10 Macon County 10-3 42.94 10 Charlton County 7-3 36.38
11 Darlington 10-1 41.73 11 Trion 8-4 35.95
12 Screven County 10-2 41.00 12 Pinecrest Academy 10-2 35.55
13 Early County 7-4-1 40.84 13 Turner County 8-3 34.39
14 Hapeville 6-4 38.64 14 Savannah Christian 9-3 33.43
15 Model 9-2 36.86 15 Landmark Christian 7-4 32.43

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 14-0 101.59 64.02 13
2 [2] Roswell 5-AAAAAA 14-0 95.65 59.39 21
3 [3] Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 13-1 91.40 61.16 17
4 [4] Grayson 8-AAAAAA 13-1 90.47 62.33 16
5 [5] Archer 8-AAAAAA 11-2 87.78 65.84 6
6 [6] McEachern 4-AAAAAA 10-2 82.33 59.16 22
7 [7] Camden County 1-AAAAAA 10-2 81.46 65.04 9
8 [1] Buford 8-AAAA 13-1 81.33 33.60 198
9 [8] Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 8-4 78.91 64.26 12
10 [2] Cartersville 7-AAAA 14-0 78.01 37.14 161
11 [1] Allatoona 5-AAAAA 13-1 75.31 48.74 58
12 [3] Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 13-1 74.56 44.62 96
13 [9] Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 6-5 72.19 71.21 1
14 [2] Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 12-2 72.09 55.76 28
15 [3] Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 12-2 71.06 46.41 80
16 [10] Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 8-4 70.55 61.00 19
17 [11] Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 7-5 69.81 65.10 8
18 [4] Stockbridge 4-Div B-AAAAA 12-1 69.41 42.88 111
19 [1] Blessed Trinity 4-Div B-AAA 13-0-1 69.41 41.64 122
20 [12] Walton 5-AAAAAA 9-2 69.41 53.12 36
21 [5] Ware County 3-AAAAA 11-3 69.27 52.26 40
22 [13] South Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 11-2 68.93 48.53 59
23 [6] Houston County 2-AAAAA 11-2 68.83 41.90 119
24 [14] Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 7-6 68.03 62.75 15
25 [7] Mays 6-Div B-AAAAA 10-2 67.94 45.58 86
26 [15] Westlake 3-AAAAAA 10-3 67.73 45.97 83
27 [4] Bainbridge 1-Div B-AAAA 13-1 66.89 45.33 91
28 [8] Stephenson 6-Div A-AAAAA 9-2 66.74 36.14 179
29 [16] Etowah 5-AAAAAA 8-3 66.71 53.77 34
30 [17] Norcross 7-AAAAAA 7-4 66.54 60.50 20
31 [18] Lee County 1-AAAAAA 6-4 66.49 55.91 27
32 [19] Dacula 8-AAAAAA 5-5 65.79 67.63 3
33 [9] Starr's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 10-2 65.01 40.13 134
34 [10] Coffee 3-AAAAA 10-2 64.73 44.48 98
35 [20] Parkview 8-AAAAAA 6-5 64.21 65.58 7
36 [2] Calhoun 6-AAA 13-1 64.14 27.91 257
37 [21] Newton 2-AAAAAA 9-3 64.00 46.88 73
38 [1] Fitzgerald 1-AA 13-1 63.44 37.38 157
39 [11] Lanier 8-AAAAA 11-1 63.28 42.25 117
40 [5] Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 9-3 63.25 44.14 101
41 [12] Jones County 2-AAAAA 9-2 62.61 36.35 176
42 [13] Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 9-2 62.53 40.77 127
43 [14] Drew 4-Div A-AAAAA 9-4 62.03 47.26 70
44 [15] Dalton 7-Div A-AAAAA 9-3 61.85 49.23 53
45 [22] Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 4-6 60.51 67.35 4
46 [6] St. Pius X 6-AAAA 10-3 60.31 39.73 140
47 [16] Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 8-4 60.06 50.80 49
48 [2] Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 12-2 59.93 40.50 129
49 [23] Newnan 3-AAAAAA 9-3 59.88 48.21 63
50 [1] Eagle's Landing Christian 5-A 10-3 59.78 32.13 208
51 [24] North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 5-5 59.61 63.56 14
52 [7] Marist 6-AAAA 10-3 59.38 38.36 153
53 [8] Thomson 3-AAAA 11-2 59.20 39.10 146
54 [17] Kell 7-Div B-AAAAA 9-4 59.03 49.36 52
55 [25] Tucker 2-AAAAAA 8-4 58.87 40.47 130
56 [18] Creekside 6-Div B-AAAAA 8-3 58.71 44.51 97
57 [19] Effingham County 3-AAAAA 7-3 58.58 49.23 54
58 [3] Benedictine 2-AA 12-1 58.21 30.59 229
59 [9] Worth County 1-Div B-AAAA 8-4 58.07 48.51 60
60 [10] Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 11-2 57.77 42.66 113
61 [26] Tift County 1-AAAAAA 5-5 57.76 51.52 46
62 [27] Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 6-5 57.66 55.24 31
63 [28] West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 7-4 57.49 48.80 57
64 [20] Creekview 7-Div A-AAAAA 7-4 57.49 53.02 37
65 [29] North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 5-6 57.33 55.69 29
66 [21] South Paulding 5-AAAAA 9-3 57.09 45.38 89
67 [22] East Paulding 5-AAAAA 8-3 56.67 46.50 78
68 [3] Jefferson 8-AAA 10-2 56.52 39.23 143
69 [30] Lambert 6-AAAAAA 8-3 56.47 47.33 69
70 [31] Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 3-7 55.98 64.92 10
71 [4] Pace Academy 6-AA 12-2 55.70 36.12 180
72 [4] Cedar Grove 4-Div A-AAA 11-2-1 55.28 31.13 222
73 [11] Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 10-2 55.21 34.57 193
74 [32] Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 5-5 54.68 56.38 26
75 [33] Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 5-6 54.30 54.82 32
76 [23] South Effingham 3-AAAAA 7-4 54.23 47.54 68
77 [12] Mary Persons 2-AAAA 11-1 54.17 39.40 142
78 [34] East Coweta 3-AAAAAA 8-3 53.66 41.63 123
79 [2] Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 12-1 53.35 17.87 343
80 [24] Gainesville 8-AAAAA 8-4 53.28 43.89 103
81 [5] Westminster (Atlanta) 4-Div B-AAA 10-4 53.21 37.36 158
82 [25] Alexander 5-AAAAA 8-3 53.20 43.77 106
83 [26] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 53.03 35.73 183
84 [35] Hughes 3-AAAAAA 5-6 52.22 53.31 35
85 [36] South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 2-8 52.13 66.62 5
86 [13] Liberty County 3-AAAA 8-4 52.01 43.54 108
87 [6] Elbert County 8-AAA 10-3 51.59 40.35 131
88 [5] Brooks County 1-AA 10-3 51.39 32.68 203
89 [27] Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 5-5 51.12 50.76 50
90 [37] Milton 5-AAAAAA 4-6 51.10 55.50 30
91 [28] Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 51.09 36.63 170
92 [38] North Paulding 4-AAAAAA 3-8 51.02 64.92 11
93 [29] Carver (Atlanta) 6-Div B-AAAAA 7-4 51.00 39.90 138
94 [14] Carrollton 5-AAAA 6-6 51.00 46.69 76
95 [30] Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 9-2 50.77 39.11 144
96 [31] Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 50.43 39.44 141
97 [39] Harrison 4-AAAAAA 5-5 50.15 48.20 64
98 [40] Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 3-7 50.10 61.08 18
99 [6] Jefferson County 3-AA 11-3 49.99 31.42 214
100 [7] Wesleyan 6-AA 9-3 49.81 35.13 188
101 [41] Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 5-6 49.72 51.70 42
102 [8] Rabun County 8-AA 11-2 49.64 23.44 300
103 [32] Paulding County 5-AAAAA 7-3 49.55 42.87 112
104 [33] Loganville 8-AAAAA 8-3 49.37 36.37 175
105 [15] Burke County 3-AAAA 7-4 49.12 44.26 100
106 [9] Lovett 6-AA 6-6 48.46 45.59 85
107 [34] Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 7-4 48.39 40.78 126
108 [16] Locust Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 9-2 48.34 30.19 231
109 [17] West Laurens 2-AAAA 8-4 48.25 38.56 151
110 [35] Sequoyah 7-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 48.04 52.41 39
111 [3] Aquinas 7-Div B-A 12-1 47.50 19.46 332
112 [36] Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 6-4 47.33 40.87 125
113 [7] Peach County 2-AAA 9-3 47.07 30.79 226
114 [42] Northview 6-AAAAAA 6-5 46.60 45.35 90
115 [18] Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 6-5 46.28 43.87 104
116 [4] Clinch County 2-A 12-1 46.21 20.22 328
117 [43] Cherokee 5-AAAAAA 4-6 46.21 51.52 47
118 [44] Centennial 6-AAAAAA 5-5 46.13 48.03 66
119 [19] Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 8-3 45.97 34.68 192
120 [37] Mundy's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 5-5 45.83 43.27 110
121 [20] Cairo 1-Div A-AAAA 4-6 45.20 47.54 67
122 [45] Marietta 4-AAAAAA 3-7 45.12 56.52 25
123 [8] Dodge County 1-Div A-AAA 11-1 45.00 22.42 306
124 [9] Oconee County 8-AAA 9-3 44.73 29.53 241
125 [10] Callaway 5-AAA 10-2 44.68 28.86 247
126 [46] Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 4-6 44.65 51.58 45
127 [11] Adairsville 6-AAA 11-2 44.53 20.21 329
128 [47] Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 5-5 44.36 45.44 87
129 [5] Irwin County 2-A 10-2-1 44.14 27.31 260
130 [12] Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 9-4 43.68 34.23 196
131 [21] Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 6-4 43.16 37.79 156
132 [38] New Manchester 5-AAAAA 5-5 43.06 43.66 107
133 [10] Macon County 4-AA 10-3 42.94 29.19 243
134 [22] Wayne County 3-AAAA 3-8 42.78 51.65 43
135 [6] Mount Paran Christian 6-Div A-A 10-2 42.56 25.72 268
136 [39] Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 6-4 42.55 34.16 197
137 [13] Hart County 8-AAA 7-4 42.53 36.49 172
138 [40] Winder-Barrow 8-AAAAA 6-5 42.26 42.32 116
139 [14] Jackson 2-AAA 9-3 42.25 28.09 255
140 [23] Eagle's Landing 4-Div A-AAAA 6-4 41.90 36.25 177
141 [24] Eastside 4-Div A-AAAA 7-3 41.81 30.13 233
142 [11] Darlington 7-AA 10-1 41.73 21.68 316
143 [25] Griffin 4-Div B-AAAA 6-5 41.70 36.38 174
144 [12] Screven County 3-AA 10-2 41.00 20.67 324
145 [26] Grady 6-AAAA 7-5 40.94 35.91 182
146 [41] Brunswick 3-AAAAA 3-7 40.94 52.98 38
147 [13] Early County 1-AA 7-4-1 40.84 30.06 234
148 [42] LaGrange 1-AAAAA 5-5 40.62 38.65 150
149 [27] Veterans 2-AAAA 4-7 40.54 46.54 77
150 [28] Stephens County 8-AAAA 8-3 40.33 29.61 240
151 [43] Northside (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 6-4 40.29 36.97 164
152 [15] Spencer 2-AAA 8-4 40.18 32.71 202
153 [44] Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 5-5 40.09 39.84 139
154 [7] Stratford Academy 7-Div A-A 9-4 39.61 25.00 278
155 [29] Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 3-7 39.48 51.58 44
156 [16] Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 9-2 39.46 24.67 283
157 [30] Howard 2-AAAA 6-4 38.94 35.44 186
158 [14] Hapeville 6-AA 6-4 38.64 26.95 263
159 [8] Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 11-2 38.54 15.01 367
160 [48] Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 4-6 38.33 45.44 88
161 [45] Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 5-5 38.02 36.89 165
162 [9] Commerce 8-A 9-4 37.53 23.00 301
163 [17] Cook 1-Div A-AAA 7-4 37.38 29.41 242
164 [18] Central (Macon) 2-AAA 6-4 37.29 28.98 246
165 [46] Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 4-6 36.94 39.02 147
166 [15] Model 7-AA 9-2 36.86 24.33 286
167 [31] Westover 1-Div B-AAAA 2-7 36.85 49.18 55
168 [47] Columbus 1-AAAAA 7-4 36.82 32.54 204
169 [48] Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 6-4 36.80 32.11 209
170 [32] North Hall 8-AAAA 6-5 36.79 33.41 200
171 [16] Heard County 5-AA 8-4 36.77 24.79 281
172 [49] Salem 8-AAAAA 5-5 36.69 35.52 185
173 [10] Charlton County 2-A 7-3 36.38 24.10 290
174 [19] Laney 3-AAA 8-3 36.02 13.92 374
175 [17] Vidalia 2-AA 8-4 35.97 23.63 296
176 [11] Trion 6-Div A-A 8-4 35.95 22.19 308
177 [50] Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 35.85 39.11 145
178 [51] Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 3-7 35.69 49.67 51
179 [49] South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 3-7 35.64 45.09 92
180 [12] Pinecrest Academy 6-Div B-A 10-2 35.55 20.86 323
181 [50] Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 3-7 35.39 56.78 24
182 [52] Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 35.30 42.51 114
183 [53] Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 6-4 35.14 29.64 239
184 [33] Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 4-6 35.11 40.31 132
185 [34] Columbia 6-AAAA 5-6 34.91 37.08 162
186 [35] Pickens 7-AAAA 8-3 34.86 24.81 280
187 [54] M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 34.73 41.69 121
188 [55] Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 2-8 34.64 48.48 61
189 [56] Shaw 1-AAAAA 5-6 34.51 37.27 159
190 [13] Turner County 2-A 8-3 34.39 19.62 331
191 [20] Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 7-4 34.10 23.51 299
192 [57] Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 2-8 34.07 47.22 71
193 [21] Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 6-4 33.91 28.82 248
194 [58] Statesboro 3-AAAAA 2-8 33.69 51.74 41
195 [22] Pierce County 1-Div A-AAA 7-4 33.64 28.47 251
196 [18] Lamar County 4-AA 7-4 33.63 25.86 267
197 [59] Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 33.59 36.16 178
198 [14] Savannah Christian 3-Div A-A 9-3 33.43 16.86 353
199 [51] North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 2-8 33.30 46.05 81
200 [52] Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 4-6 33.16 38.81 149
201 [36] Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 7-4 32.94 25.16 274
202 [53] Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 2-8 32.79 48.13 65
203 [60] Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 32.64 36.73 167
204 [15] Landmark Christian 5-A 7-4 32.43 21.47 319
205 [54] Douglas County 3-AAAAAA 2-8 32.37 44.91 94
206 [37] Lithonia 6-AAAA 6-4 32.06 28.15 254
207 [38] Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 3-7 31.86 40.17 133
208 [61] Hiram 5-AAAAA 3-7 31.74 43.98 102
209 [23] Sonoraville 6-AAA 8-4 31.65 17.73 344
210 [24] Pepperell 5-AAA 7-4 31.47 24.76 282
211 [16] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-Div A-A 8-4 31.38 20.46 325
212 [55] Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 1-9 31.34 46.45 79
213 [17] Marion County 4-A 10-2 31.28 11.58 385
214 [39] Perry 2-AAAA 2-8 31.25 44.31 99
215 [25] Morgan County 8-AAA 4-6 31.23 35.07 189
216 [62] Grovetown 2-AAAAA 5-5 31.20 35.61 184
217 [19] Chattooga 7-AA 7-4 31.15 25.09 277
218 [18] Christian Heritage 6-Div A-A 6-6 31.15 30.84 225
219 [19] Calvary Day 3-Div A-A 9-2 31.03 9.55 397
220 [26] Dawson County 7-AAA 9-4 30.66 22.38 307
221 [20] Athens Academy 8-A 9-2 30.51 7.82 404
222 [40] North Oconee 8-AAAA 5-6 30.39 35.39 187
223 [21] Lincoln County 7-Div B-A 9-2 30.29 14.46 370
224 [41] Baldwin 2-AAAA 4-6 30.24 36.47 173
225 [63] Evans 2-AAAAA 4-6 30.23 33.55 199
226 [42] Fayette County 5-AAAA 3-8 30.13 48.44 62
227 [27] Appling County 1-Div A-AAA 5-5 30.03 29.70 237
228 [20] Putnam County 4-AA 7-4 29.95 21.98 310
229 [28] Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 6-4 29.81 24.84 279
230 [29] Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 6-4 29.74 23.62 297
231 [30] Jackson County 8-AAA 4-6 29.64 34.33 195
232 [21] Manchester 5-AA 8-4 28.91 19.13 337
233 [56] Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 1-9 28.66 46.74 75
234 [22] Dublin 3-AA 6-4 28.64 22.86 302
235 [23] Dade County 7-AA 6-5 28.62 29.04 244
236 [64] North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 28.37 39.93 136
237 [22] Mount Pisgah Christian 6-Div B-A 6-5 28.05 27.16 262
238 [65] Harris County 1-AAAAA 2-8 27.92 36.80 166
239 [43] Redan 6-AAAA 4-6 27.78 29.69 238
240 [66] McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 27.74 37.02 163
241 [57] Duluth 7-AAAAAA 1-9 27.51 57.14 23
242 [44] Ridgeland 7-AAAA 4-7 27.25 31.24 218
243 [24] Swainsboro 3-AA 5-6 27.02 31.64 213
244 [45] Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 4-6 27.01 30.68 228
245 [25] Union County 8-AA 9-2 26.74 10.49 391
246 [31] Washington County 3-AAA 5-6 26.57 24.57 285
247 [67] Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 2-8 26.43 41.86 120
248 [32] East Hall 7-AAA 6-5 25.06 23.71 294
249 [46] Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 5-5 24.89 27.89 258
250 [26] Metter 3-AA 6-5 24.88 26.36 266
251 [33] Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 6-4 24.68 15.18 366
252 [34] Maynard Jackson 4-Div A-AAA 6-5 24.55 25.69 269
253 [27] Bowdon 5-AA 6-6 24.37 25.34 271
254 [35] Franklin County 7-AAA 6-5 23.44 22.75 303
255 [68] Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-9 23.34 43.83 105
256 [47] Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 4-6 23.29 27.96 256
257 [48] Troup 5-AAAA 1-9 23.29 46.83 74
258 [28] Pelham 1-AA 6-5 23.03 26.60 265
259 [69] Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-10 22.93 51.28 48
260 [23] First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 6-5 22.85 18.28 340
261 [29] B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 2-8 22.82 39.93 137
262 [49] White County 8-AAAA 3-7 22.62 31.34 215
263 [36] North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 3-7 22.43 32.48 205
264 [70] Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 22.06 28.74 249
265 [37] Ringgold 6-AAA 6-5 21.72 17.48 348
266 [30] McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 4-7 21.62 30.38 230
267 [58] Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-10 21.45 68.49 2
268 [24] Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 5-5 21.20 15.83 362
269 [31] Bacon County 2-AA 5-5 21.14 21.67 317
270 [38] Jordan 2-AAA 3-7 20.95 31.24 219
271 [59] Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 4-7 20.91 30.17 232
272 [39] Washington 4-Div B-AAA 3-7 20.13 31.74 211
273 [25] Telfair County 2-A 5-6 20.09 20.93 322
274 [71] Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-9 20.04 44.89 95
275 [26] Athens Christian 8-A 6-5 20.03 16.89 352
276 [40] Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 5-5 19.84 19.38 333
277 [32] Bryan County 2-AA 5-6 19.78 22.64 304
278 [27] Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 6-5 19.69 17.62 345
279 [60] Pope 5-AAAAAA 0-10 19.56 54.74 33
280 [50] Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 4-6 19.44 23.71 293
281 [33] Gordon Lee 7-AA 4-6 19.42 21.76 315
282 [28] Brookstone 4-A 6-5 19.33 16.01 360
283 [41] West Hall 7-AAA 5-6 19.25 21.91 312
284 [61] Rockdale County 2-AAAAAA 2-8 19.20 44.93 93
285 [29] Johnson County 3-Div B-A 7-5 19.01 15.98 361
286 [34] Greene County 8-AA 5-6 18.94 22.59 305
287 [42] Cedartown 5-AAA 2-9 18.93 31.24 220
288 [35] Holy Innocents 6-AA 2-8 18.88 41.97 118
289 [30] Dooly County 4-A 7-4 18.72 11.80 384
290 [43] Southwest 2-AAA 3-7 18.42 31.65 212
291 [51] Gilmer 7-AAAA 4-6 18.23 25.33 272
292 [52] Southeast Whitfield 7-AAAA 5-5 17.97 16.90 351
293 [44] Banks County 7-AAA 5-5 17.61 17.37 349
294 [53] Monroe Area 8-AAAA 3-7 16.97 33.20 201
295 [62] Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 3-6 16.90 27.19 261
296 [54] Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 3-5 16.72 30.85 224
297 [31] Pacelli 4-A 7-4 16.66 10.46 392
298 [45] Fannin County 7-AAA 4-6 16.65 18.33 339
299 [36] Washington-Wilkes 8-AA 4-7 16.58 25.15 276
300 [37] Berrien 1-AA 2-8 16.41 34.81 190
301 [32] Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 4-7 16.20 21.80 313
302 [55] Whitewater 5-AAAA 2-8 16.00 47.20 72
303 [38] Bremen 5-AA 4-7 15.74 25.15 275
304 [46] Towers 4-Div A-AAA 2-8 15.41 31.04 223
305 [72] Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 1-9 15.13 37.80 155
306 [47] Kendrick 2-AAA 3-7 15.00 31.29 216
307 [63] Campbell 3-AAAAAA 2-8 14.88 36.71 168
308 [73] Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 0-10 14.87 46.00 82
309 [39] Jeff Davis 2-AA 5-5 14.67 13.96 373
310 [40] Thomasville 1-AA 1-8 13.94 40.07 135
311 [56] Chamblee 6-AAAA 2-8 13.92 32.05 210
312 [74] River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-9 13.91 40.64 128
313 [57] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 2-8 13.77 29.87 236
314 [64] Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 1-9 13.65 40.96 124
315 [75] Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 2-8 13.20 37.16 160
316 [41] Harlem 3-AA 3-7 12.90 21.96 311
317 [76] Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 2-8 12.70 36.66 169
318 [33] Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 6-4 12.51 9.87 396
319 [34] Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 4-6 12.36 16.17 358
320 [48] Beach 1-Div B-AAA 5-5 12.13 14.79 368
321 [35] Walker 6-Div A-A 4-6 11.73 24.15 288
322 [42] Seminole County 1-AA 3-7 11.38 19.28 334
323 [43] Northeast 4-AA 2-9 11.34 28.34 253
324 [77] North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-9 11.28 38.37 152
325 [44] Crawford County 4-AA† 8-2 10.92 -4.53 416
326 [45] Long County 2-AA 3-7 10.80 20.14 330
327 [78] Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-9 10.77 36.60 171
328 [36] Randolph-Clay 1-A 7-4 10.75 5.09 408
329 [49] Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 3-7 10.57 24.14 289
330 [37] Treutlen 3-Div B-A 5-5 10.29 11.51 387
331 [38] George Walton Academy 8-A 3-7 10.22 19.25 335
332 [79] Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-7 9.92 26.70 264
333 [50] Lumpkin County 7-AAA 2-8 9.92 21.14 321
334 [80] Hardaway 1-AAAAA 1-9 9.77 34.34 194
335 [81] Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-10 9.64 48.92 56
336 [51] Rockmart 5-AAA 2-8 9.56 23.64 295
337 [46] Monticello 4-AA 1-9 9.11 25.53 270
338 [52] Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 2-8 8.99 24.61 284
339 [39] Terrell County 1-A 5-5 8.98 10.31 393
340 [40] Hawkinsville 4-A 5-5 8.78 7.77 405
341 [53] Rutland 2-AAA 1-9 8.62 32.19 206
342 [47] East Laurens 3-AA 4-6 8.45 19.07 338
343 [54] North Murray 6-AAA 4-6 8.22 16.38 355
344 [55] Josey 3-AAA 6-5 8.20 9.36 398
345 [41] Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 4-6 8.08 17.52 347
346 [56] Murray County 6-AAA 4-6 8.05 15.25 365
347 [42] Atkinson County 2-A 3-7 7.92 21.23 320
348 [48] Coosa 7-AA 1-9 7.90 30.75 227
349 [57] McNair 4-Div A-AAA 2-8 6.93 21.49 318
350 [43] Mitchell County 1-A 4-6 6.52 10.12 395
351 [58] Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 2-8 6.30 18.06 341
352 [49] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 1-9 5.62 34.77 191
353 [44] Miller County 1-A 5-5 5.33 8.02 403
354 [59] Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 1-9 5.19 36.06 181
355 [45] Taylor County 4-A 3-7 4.83 11.51 386
356 [58] Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 3-7 4.82 23.87 292
357 [50] Bleckley County 4-AA 1-9 4.77 27.58 259
358 [46] St. Francis 6-Div B-A 3-7 4.62 14.49 369
359 [59] South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 1-9 4.53 21.77 314
360 [47] Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 3-7 4.24 17.12 350
361 [82] Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-9 3.91 43.49 109
362 [51] Social Circle 8-AA 4-6 3.80 11.97 382
363 [48] Greenville 4-A 4-6 3.77 11.05 390
364 [52] Armuchee 7-AA 2-8 3.66 24.26 287
365 [49] Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 4-6 3.29 11.83 383
366 [53] Chattahoochee County 5-AA 3-7 3.05 11.18 388
367 [50] North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 6-4 2.77 -2.55 415
368 [60] New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 7-3 2.48 -5.27 417
369 [54] Temple 5-AA 3-7 2.39 13.75 375
370 [61] Madison County 8-AAAA 1-9 2.37 28.41 252
371 [51] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 4-6 1.53 4.93 410
372 [52] Tattnall Square 7-Div A-A 4-6 1.13 6.02 407
373 [83] Apalachee 8-AAAAA 0-10 0.89 42.39 115
374 [60] Haralson County 5-AAA 1-9 0.85 20.33 326
375 [53] Warren County 7-Div B-A 3-7 0.76 14.42 371
376 [54] Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 2-8 0.66 15.36 364
377 [62] Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 0-9 0.64 32.15 207
378 [55] Jenkins County 3-Div A-A 4-6 0.57 3.97 411
379 [56] Portal 3-Div A-A 2-8 0.31 13.19 378
380 [57] Wilcox County 2-A 2-8 0.21 20.27 327
381 [61] Butler 3-AAA 4-7 0.03 11.12 389
382 [62] East Jackson 8-AAA 1-9 -0.28 31.13 221
383 [58] Claxton 3-Div A-A 2-8 -2.35 16.26 356
384 [59] King's Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 1-9 -2.79 23.61 298
385 [63] LaFayette 7-AAAA 1-9 -3.09 25.17 273
386 [60] Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 3-7 -3.99 8.89 400
387 [55] Oglethorpe County 8-AA 1-9 -4.62 28.65 250
388 [64] Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-10 -5.27 38.99 148
389 [61] Lakeview Academy 8-A 2-8 -5.95 12.45 380
390 [62] Central (Talbotton) 4-A 3-7 -6.07 8.18 402
391 [65] Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-10 -6.14 37.82 154
392 [63] Westside (Augusta) 3-AAA 2-8 -6.57 17.59 346
393 [84] Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 1-8 -6.91 29.02 245
394 [63] Lanier County 2-A 1-9 -6.96 22.03 309
395 [64] Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 1-9 -7.04 19.19 336
396 [64] Towns County 8-A 2-8 -7.06 16.81 354
397 [85] Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-10 -7.46 45.96 84
398 [66] Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 1-9 -7.53 31.26 217
399 [65] Hephzibah 3-AAA 3-7 -7.82 3.24 412
400 [66] Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 2-8 -9.27 14.25 372
401 [56] Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 1-9 -9.54 16.24 357
402 [67] Chestatee 8-AAAA 0-10 -10.46 29.89 235
403 [65] Strong Rock Christian 5-A 1-9 -12.48 8.72 401
404 [67] Islands 1-Div B-AAA 1-9 -12.65 15.73 363
405 [66] Baconton 1-A 3-7 -13.94 -1.13 414
406 [67] Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 1-9 -16.19 12.58 379
407 [68] Providence Christian 8-A 0-10 -17.77 13.54 376
408 [69] Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 0-10 -18.22 12.09 381
409 [57] Groves 2-AA 0-10 -18.40 16.08 359
410 [70] Calhoun County 1-A 0-10 -20.75 10.25 394
411 [68] Glenn Hills 3-AAA 0-10 -22.80 24.07 291
412 [69] Gordon Central 6-AAA 1-9 -24.88 13.43 377
413 [71] Schley County 4-A 0-10 -25.25 9.02 399
414 [72] Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 1-9 -29.99 0.47 413
415 [68] Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 0-5 -32.35 7.31 406
416 [70] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 0-10 -32.55 18.01 342
417 [73] Stewart County 1-A† 0-10 -42.70 4.95 409
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAA 93.66 73.76
2 8 - AAAAAA 84.90 64.07
3 7 - AAAAAA 82.75 60.46
4 5 - AAAAAA 76.92 55.11
5 3 - AAAAA 71.18 50.74
6 4 - AAAAAA 69.71 52.85
7 5 - AAAA 68.56 42.05
8 4 - AAAAA 66.81 43.36
4 - Div A - AAAAA 68.91 42.83
4 - Div B - AAAAA 64.19 43.71
9 5 - AAAAA 64.95 45.08
10 3 - AAAAAA 64.36 44.07
11 6 - AAAAAA 63.03 44.72
12 2 - AAAAA 62.80 37.22
13 2 - AAAAAA 62.52 37.25
14 7 - AAAAA 62.31 43.16
7 - Div A - AAAAA 65.41 46.78
7 - Div B - AAAAA 58.65 40.01
15 6 - AAAAA 60.51 38.66
6 - Div B - AAAAA 67.60 47.13
6 - Div A - AAAAA 51.49 33.02
16 3 - AAAA 59.98 45.29
17 6 - AA 59.48 39.07
18 1 - AAAA 59.47 39.86
1 - Div B - AAAA 64.65 41.58
1 - Div A - AAAA 54.75 38.58
19 8 - AAAAA 57.43 38.11
20 2 - AAAA 57.11 41.33
21 8 - AAA 57.08 38.78
22 1 - AA 54.91 29.44
23 4 - AAAA 53.69 32.50
4 - Div B - AAAA 57.14 33.31
4 - Div A - AAAA 50.40 31.89
24 6 - AAAA 53.48 34.10
25 4 - AAA 52.10 26.31
4 - Div B - AAA 59.93 34.30
4 - Div A - AAA 41.63 19.24
26 1 - AAAAA 51.73 35.23
27 2 - AAA 49.33 30.93
28 8 - AAAA 48.29 25.77
29 7 - AAAA 48.22 25.41
30 5 - A 47.11 13.97
31 3 - AA 46.26 27.25
32 2 - A 45.80 23.97
33 5 - AAA 44.61 24.50
34 6 - AAA 43.68 12.12
35 7 - AA 42.79 24.75
36 2 - AA 42.24 20.36
37 1 - AAA 40.79 21.39
1 - Div A - AAA 45.62 28.77
1 - Div B - AAA 32.14 9.66
38 6 - A 40.31 22.77
6 - Div A - A 44.76 31.21
6 - Div B - A 34.28 14.19
39 4 - AA 39.58 21.64
40 8 - A 39.52 14.14
41 5 - AA 36.90 18.66
42 8 - AA 36.38 13.30
43 7 - A 35.95 15.83
7 - Div B - A 36.80 14.28
7 - Div A - A 35.34 16.70
44 7 - AAA 35.34 20.37
45 3 - A 31.92 9.19
3 - Div B - A 32.15 8.86
3 - Div A - A 31.74 9.44
46 3 - AAA 27.96 3.31
47 4 - A 27.48 9.16
48 1 - A 15.08 0.48

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
0925 Westminster (Atlanta) Therrell 23 - 25 40.98 98.4% 0.050
0904 Central Gwinnett Mundy's Mill 20 - 35 22.32 90.3% 0.131
0828 Richmond Academy Westside (Augusta) 20 - 27 21.42 89.5% 0.165
0904 Bryan County Claxton 7 - 13 20.47 88.6% 0.181
0904 Westminster (Atlanta) Laney 3 - 10 18.84 86.8% 0.197
1016 Gainesville Clarke Central 7 - 44 14.68 81.3% 0.197
0821 Allatoona East Paulding 10 - 17 16.98 84.5% 0.222
1023 B.E.S.T. Academy K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 26 - 27 18.86 86.8% 0.225
0904 Collins Hill South Gwinnett 17 - 20 17.56 85.3% 0.232
1009 First Presbyterian Mount de Sales 21 - 22 17.89 85.7% 0.238
0828 Crawford County Central (Talbotton) 21 - 30 15.33 82.2% 0.238
0925 Swainsboro Harlem 27 - 34 15.77 82.9% 0.239
0918 Pacelli Greenville 12 - 22 14.55 81.1% 0.246
0911 Jonesboro Eagle's Landing 7 - 17 14.21 80.6% 0.251
0918 Dalton Cass 8 - 23 12.87 78.4% 0.258

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
97.75 1212 Colquitt County Roswell - 5.94 64.4%
94.73 1204 Colquitt County Mill Creek 52 - 31 8.54 70.1%
92.75 1204 Roswell Grayson 30 - 26 3.52 58.7%
88.90 1127 Mill Creek Archer 23 - 0 5.27 62.9%
88.66 0911 Grayson Archer 26 - 24 4.34 60.7%
84.70 1120 Archer McEachern 24 - 21 3.79 59.4%
84.43 1106 Colquitt County Camden County 33 - 14 18.47 86.4%
83.05 1120 Roswell Camden County 34 - 15 15.84 83.0%
81.66 0904 McEachern Buford 37 - 14 2.66 56.6%
80.72 0829 Archer Peachtree Ridge 26 - 10 10.53 74.1%
80.63 1106 Mill Creek Peachtree Ridge 20 - 17 14.14 80.4%
80.54 0911 McEachern Peachtree Ridge 6 - 9 1.77 54.4%
79.40 1212 Buford Cartersville - 3.32 58.2%
76.22 1204 Buford Woodward Academy 35 - 18 8.43 69.9%
75.32 0904 Camden County Glynn Academy 24 - 17 7.72 68.4%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

More Stories

The Latest

APTOPIX Milan Cortina Olympics Skeleton

Ukrainian trains in helmet honoring fellow athletes killed in war. IOC says it's banned for race

9m ago

Arne Slot has lowered his sights for Liverpool this season

29m ago

Breezy Johnson hands US teammate Mikaela Shiffrin a slim lead in women's combined

1h ago

Keep Reading

Georgia State banking on veteran pitching staff for a return to playoffs

Projected first round draft pick is a ‘magnet’ for Georgia Tech baseball

Art Shell: NFL’s first modern Black head coach — and what came after

Featured

Local officials blindsided by reported plan to detain migrants in warehouse

ICE to begin detaining immigrants inside Social Circle warehouse in April

Could Buckhead be ready for new office towers? These landlords think so.

So your city wants its own police department? Here’s what it takes.