The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 422 teams throughout the 2018 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.
Interesting results:
- By the middle of last season it was practically a given Grayson would meet Lowndes for the state title, but each were surprisingly dumped in the second round. Still, the consistent strong performance of the Rams over the past few years (in spite of three different head coaches) makes them the computer’s Class AAAAAAA favorites for the 2018 season. Colquitt County, last season’s runner-up, looks to challenge Grayson for the title. The schools will provide us with a preview of that possible title game in September, which is the computer’s highest rated match of the season at this point. North Gwinnett, last season’s dark horse champion, is ranked sixth, behind staples Lowndes, McEachern, and Mill Creek. Archer rounds out the list of teams with more than a 5% chance of claiming the title.
- Cartersville was the only top rated team from last year that did not win its classification's title, falling to eventual champion Blessed Trinity in the second round. That loss broke a 41-game winning streak and dropped Joey King to a 53-3 record in four years with two state titles, but the computer expects Cartersville to shake off the loss and gives them better than a 63% chance to win the title this season. Both of the Purple Hurricanes' strongest competitors can be found in region 7-AAAA, where defending champion Blessed Trinity and state runner-up Marist will be looking to claim the title as well. There is an 89% chance one of these three teams will walk away with the trophy in December.
- Benedictine took an unusual path to become the preseason favorite: not only did the Cadets make an unexpected early exit from last year's tournament to eventual AA champion Hapeville Charter, they also moved up from AA to AAA. It'll be interesting to see if Danny Britt, who is 65-5 with two state titles at Benedictine over the last five years, can fend off defending champion Calhoun along with perennial power Greater Atlanta Christian and last season's bitter runner-up, Peach County, and semifinalist Cedar Grove.
- Competition in Class AAAAAA is expected to be extremely tight, although the computer gives a slight nod to defending champion Lee County. Still the Trojans must potentially face the likes of region rivals Coffee and Valdosta, along with Tucker, Northside (Warner Robins), Mays, and Glynn Academy, all of which have better than one-in-twenty odds to take home the trophy.
- In AAAAA, defending champion Rome, last season’s highest rated team among all classifications, returns as the favorite with powerhouse Buford close behind. There is a 90.1% chance this season's title will belong to one of these two, although Stockbridge is a distant dark horse with about a 5.6% chance of winning the title.
- Benedictine’s elevation to Class AAA only helps last year’s AA champion, Hapeville Charter, who is the favorite entering the season. Their closest rival is Rabun County while Brooks County is a remote outsider.
- Class A-Public continues to be one of the hottest contested classifications in the GHSA. Clinch County, who finished last season atop the heap, starts as the favorite, however Irwin County, Macon County, ECI, and Manchester all expect to compete as well.
- No favorite is as overwhelming as Class A-Private Eagle’s Landing Christian. The Chargers have won three state titles in a row and the computer says they have nearly an 85% chance to make it four. No other team has a greater than 5% chance of taking the title.
- Just as last season, the outlook should soon become clearer as several top games are scheduled early in the season, including four of the top-15 match ups on opening weekend with six more scheduled before most of the state fully embraces region play in October. And, just as last season, Colquitt County may again have the best schedule to watch as they play in four of the eight highest rated match ups, including the top three, while once more facing down the toughest slate in the state.
Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings
As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.
The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 100.00%.
For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 0 of 0 total games including 0 tie(s) (--.--%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within --.-- points.
The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.
All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
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Home Advantage: 1.27
By Class
All-Class
Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
Regions
Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.
Least Likely Results
These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.
Highest Rated Matchups
These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.
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