A week ago, sports betting analyst Josh Nagel felt strongly about taking the over for Georgia Tech’s road game at Pittsburgh. The game easily made it, passing the over/under line of 51 (a bet on the total points scored in the game) with 10 minutes to play in the game.
For the Yellow Jackets' game against Georgia Southern, Nagel, who writes for the betting picks website Sportsline, doesn't feel strongly about any position to recommend it to his readers, but if pressed would go with Tech, favored by 11 points.
Nagel would have thought that the line would be closer to 14 points. The lower spread, he said, recognizes what bettors perceive as the continued mediocre play of the Jackets. Tech is 6-12 on the field since the start of last season and 5-11-1 against the spread, according to covers.com, which did not have a line for the Mercer game. The line actually opened at 8 points before heavy betting on the Jackets expanded the spread.
Nagel sides with Tech for a few reasons. One, he watched Georgia Southern’s 27-26 loss to Arkansas State last week and was not impressed.
“Arkansas State can’t stop anybody. They’re one of the worst defenses in the country, and (Georgia Southern) couldn’t score,” Nagel said.
While a bowl team last year, “I don’t know they’re sneaking up on anybody this year,” Nagel said.
Also, as both teams run an option-based offense, he likened it to a boxing match between similarly-styled fighters, such as two knockout punchers.
“I think it’s the one that has the more knockout power, and I think Georgia Southern would probably be in pretty bad shape in this one,” said Nagel, who suspects that Tech’s offense is gaining momentum.
He also isn’t keen on Sun Belt teams and guesses that Tech players may be motivated to assert their authority over an in-state team that nearly upset them two years ago. That said, he is leery about Tech’s capacity to win convincingly (or at least by more than 11 points), not to mention the over/under, around 46.5 points.
“Right now, it’s not a game that would be in my overall plans, but if I had to give a spread prediction, Georgia Tech’s the only side I’d go with,” he said.
He has company. According to covers.com, 75 percent of bets were being placed on Tech as of Friday afternoon, which was the widest disparity of any game of its listed matchups.
In predictions for the AJC, Nagel is 2-1 this season.
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