Brad Raffensperger for Senate? Poll shows dead heat with Jon Ossoff

Today’s newsletter highlights:

• The State Election Board hires a new executive director.
• Budget cuts impact parks on Lake Lanier ahead of Memorial Day.
• JD Vance headlines big dollar fundraiser in Atlanta.

Raffensperger’s revenge?

President Donald Trump unsuccessfully tried to get Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to find votes for him after he lost to Joe Biden in Georgia in 2020.

As Gov. Brian Kemp and President Donald Trump try to unite behind a potential Republican U.S. Senate candidate next year, a new poll shows the closest hypothetical GOP challenger could complicate those delicate discussions.

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger tied with Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff at about 44% support according to a new survey by Republican pollster Cygnal, putting him slightly ahead of a cohort of other potential Republican challengers.

A Raffensperger candidacy would likely do little to unite GOP voters given his rocky relationship with Trump. The president has repeatedly slammed Raffensperger for refusing to help him “find” enough votes to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Raffensperger has pushed back and at one point challenged Trump to a debate at the Reagan Library.

Raffensperger hasn’t decided yet what he will do in 2026 as he weighs runs for both the U.S. Senate and governor. But in the Senate race, the poll shows Republicans have other options.

U.S. Rep. Mike Collins and Insurance Commissioner John King were both within the poll’s margin of error of 3.4 percentage points. Collins polled slightly better with 43.3% of support compared to 42.1% for King, who entered the race last week after Kemp passed on a bid. Collins is still considering a campaign.

Meanwhile, former U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler was right on the edge of the margin of error, putting her at 42.8% compared to Ossoff’s 46.3%. But Loeffler is unlikely to run for Senate after Trump appointed her to lead the Small Business Administration. U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter, who launched his campaign earlier this month, polled at 42.1% compared to 46% for Ossoff.

Commissioned by the Democracy Defense Project of Georgia, the poll surveyed 800 general election voters from May 15 to May 17. It also included several takeaways about Georgians views on election security.

• Confidence that Georgia’s votes will be accurately cast and counted in next year’s elections rose to 76%, a 13 percentage point jump since last September. Previous polling has shown increasing trust among Republicans since Trump won Georgia.
• Voter ID requirements in Georgia’s 2021 election law, which required ID numbers or other documentation to cast an absentee ballot, received 72% support, the highest-ranking portion of the law.
• A plurality of respondents, nearly 50%, want Georgia to keep open primaries, where anybody can vote for either Democratic or Republican candidates without having to register with a political party. Just 23% wanted closed primaries.
• Election denial appears to be a losing strategy, the poll showed. About 45% of people said they’d be less likely to support a candidate who says the 2020 election was stolen, compared to 17% who said they’d be more likely to back an election denier.

Things to know

(Left to right) Georgia Public Service Commission commissioner Lauren “Bubba” McDonald, Chairman Jason Shaw and Gov. Brian Kemp appeared at a news conference at the Capitol in Atlanta on Wednesday.

Good morning! Here are three other things to know for today:

• Now that former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms is running for governor, the AJC’s Riley Bunch and Greg Bluestein examine whether her tenure leading Georgia’s largest city will be a boon or a burden to her campaign.
• The U.S. House this morning passed a revised version of President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill.” Initial GOP holdouts, including Rep. Andrew Clyde, R-Athens, indicated they liked the changes enough to vote for the package. Tia Mitchell dives into what’s in the bill and how it will affect Georgia.
• Georgia Power’s rising electricity rates will be a top issue in two races for the Public Service Commission this year. Wednesday, Gov. Brian Kemp touted a recent deal that would hold the utility’s rates steady for now, the AJC’s Drew Kann reports.

New election director

The State Election Board voted 3-1 on Wednesday to hire Republican James Mills, a former state representative, as its new executive director.

Mills boasted of his conservative credentials in his job application, touting his nearly 19 years of service in the Georgia House of Representatives as well as awards from Georgia Right to Life and the Christian Coalition. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution obtained applications for job finalists through the Georgia Open Records Act.

Mills also served on the State Board of Pardons and Paroles from 2011 to 2020.

As for elections, the Parole Board’s website says he shepherded legislation requiring proof of citizenship when registering to vote.

In the State Election Board job, Mills will be responsible for managing the board’s day-to-day operations, replacing Mike Coan, who resigned in January.

The board supported Mills over two other finalists — former acting Labor Commissioner Louis DeBroux and former Assistant Deputy Georgia Elections Director Nicolas Northen.

The board’s only Democratic member, Sara Tindall Ghazal, voted against Mills’ hiring.

Boats on parade

State Rep. Lauren McDonald III, R-Cumming, is a fan political boat parades.

Most lawmakers celebrate bills being signed into law by getting a keepsake pen from the governor. State Rep. Lauren McDonald III has bigger plans.

The Cumming Republican is hosting a boat parade on Lake Lanier tonight to celebrate House Bill 994. The bill, signed into law last year, shields marinas from liability if someone rents a boat from them and drives it negligently.

In some ways, the law was a precursor to Gov. Brian Kemp’s push to overhaul the state’s civil litigation system — legislation that dominated this year’s session. Both laws deal with the issue of “premises liability,” or who should be responsible when someone is injured on a company’s property.

McDonald says Kemp will be in the parade. He’s scheduled to ride in a boat with some Rotary Clubs from Forsyth County and plans to read a proclamation honoring them for their charity work during Hurricane Helene.

But it sounds like the real fun will be at the after party, hosted at McDonald’s house. He said state Rep. Chas Cannon, R-Moultrie, will be “spinning on the Karaoke machine,” noting he has a particular talent with songs by the Red Clay Strays.

It’s not all fun and games. The event also doubles as a fundraiser for a host of lawmakers:

• State Rep. Carter Barrett, R-Cumming.
• State Sen. Matt Brass, R-Newnan.
• State Rep. Brent Cox, R-Dawsonville.
• State Rep. Matthew Gambrill, R-Cartersville.
• State Sen. Bo Hatchett, R-Cornelia.
• State Rep. Rob Leverett, R-Elberton.
• State Rep. Eddie Lumsden, R-Armuchee.
• State Rep. Lauren McDonald III, R-Cumming.
• State Rep. Alan Powell, R-Hartwell.
• State Rep. Trey Rhodes, R-Greensboro.
• State Sen. Larry Walker III, R-Perry.

Budget cuts hit home

Boaters and jet skiers enjoy a sunny day at Lake Lanier.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers announced this week they would temporarily close 20 parks surrounding Lake Lanier because of staffing shortages prompted by the Trump administration’s budget cuts.

But late Wednesday, U.S. Rep. Rich McCormick, R-Suwanee, said the Corps backed off some of those closures after he “pushed hard for a better solution.”

“All boat ramps will remain open, and only 11 recreation sites will close temporarily,” McCormick wrote on X.

The closures around the popular reservoir just before Memorial Day weekend were some of several announced this week that threatened to drive home the impact of Republican budget cuts.

Dustin Gautney, chief of public affairs and media relations for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Mobile District, noted the “federal government has been tasked with limiting spending this year along with getting smaller in regards to personnel.”

“In this resource-constrained environment, USACE is facing difficult decisions about limiting operations at certain recreation areas due to staffing shortfalls, or potentially closing them altogether,” Gautney said, adding that full closures are “a last resort.”

Listen up

Insurance Commissioner John King is a guest today on the "Politically Georgia" show.

Today on “Politically Georgia,” Insurance Commissioner John King joins the show to talk about his campaign for the U.S. Senate. Then, we look at former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms’ announcement that she’s officially running for governor.

Have a question or comment for the show? Email us at politicallygeorgia@ajc.com or give us a call at 770-810-5297 and you could be featured on a future episode.

You can listen and subscribe to the show for free at Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Bypassing the filibuster

The U.S. Senate voted along party lines Wednesday night to advance legislation preventing California from enacting stricter emission standards for vehicles.

In doing so, Republicans defied guidance from the Senate parliamentarian and used procedures that allowed the bill to move forward without meeting the 60-vote filibuster threshold.

Democrats were incensed at what they considered an infringement on a primary tool used by the minority party. And they say this eroding of the filibuster will not be forgotten.

“Make no mistake, Republicans have set a new precedent that will come back to haunt them and haunt this chamber,” Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said. “What goes around comes around.”

Republicans pushed back that they were making a procedural determination about this bill and not the filibuster as a whole. But the discussion has added weight given the reconciliation bill is now headed to the Senate where the parliamentarian must determine if all of the provisions in the House-passed package meet requirements for consideration.

Today in Washington

• President Donald Trump is lunching with Vice President JD Vance and attending a Make America Healthy Again Commission event at the White House.
• The House, after voting on the reconciliation bill, will adjourn for the Memorial Day break.
• The Senate will vote on a repeal of California vehicle emission standards.

Cash dash

Vice President JD Vance was in Buckhead on Wednesday night as a featured guest for a Republican Party fundraiser that cost up to $250,000 to attend, according to screenshots of the flyer obtained by the AJC.

Vance is the finance chair of the Republican National Committee, making him the party’s top fundraiser. No other sitting vice president has held such a role at the party level.

Some of the money Vance raised could likely stay in Georgia. The party will use the money during the 2026 midterm elections, which includes Georgia’s U.S. Senate race as Republicans try to defeat Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff.

By then, tempers should have cooled for the people caught in the VP’s midday motorcade traffic.

Shoutouts

It isn't hard to confuse Jantz Womack (left) and state Sen. Blake Tillery.

Transition:

• Jantz Womack, a media relations specialist for the Georgia Senate Press Office and doppelgänger of Republican state Sen. Blake Tillery, is moving on. No word yet on his next gig.

Want a birthday shoutout in the Politically Georgia newsletter? There’s a form for that. Click here to submit the shoutouts. It’s not just birthdays. We’re also interested in new jobs, engagements, birth announcements, etc.

Before you go

U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., spoke at an event in Atlanta on Monday.

U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff asked Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to “give an unequivocal guarantee” that he would not pursue the sale of any part of the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge. “Yes,” Burgum responded.