While the Republican and Democratic candidates have not been officially nominated, that hasn't stopped talk of campaign strategies for this fall and what each would do to get to a new magic number -- 270.
That number represents a majority in something called the Electoral College.
A story in The Washington Post suggests Hillary Clinton, if she is the Democratic nominee, will have an enormous advantage in the general election because states that went for Democrats during the last major election will do so again. If they do, Clinton will get the needed number of electoral votes to push her past 270, the argument goes.
A story from Bloomberg Business challenges that assumption, saying that states don't just do what they did in the previous election, but, instead "move in lockstep" responding to whether the Democrats or the Republicans are having a "good year" or not.
Whether there is a "blue wall" for Democrats to easily take the election, or if the Trump Train can capture the favor of the electorate in general is yet to be seen. What is a reality is is that every presidential election this country has seen has been decided by the Electoral College.
What is the Electoral College and why does it matter? Here’s a quick look at how it works.
What is the Electoral College?
First, it’s not a place with ivy-covered walls. It’s a process. The process that represents a compromise between the popular vote – how many votes a person gets on election day -- vs. having Congress select the president.
The Electoral College by the numbers
The Electoral College consists of 538 electors. A majority of 270 electoral votes is what is needed to be elected president.
The number of electors from each state equals the number of members in that state’s Congressional delegation – one for each House of Representatives member and one for each senator. Currently, there are 538 electors -- 535 from the Congressional delegations and 3 from the District of Columbia.
Who gets to be an elector?
Actually, it takes longer to say who can't be an elector than to say who can. According to Article II of the Constitution, “no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.” That leaves most of the rest of us open for the job. State laws vary on how electors are chosen, but they are generally picked by the candidate’s political party. Potential electors are nominated at state party conventions, generally, and voted on there. On election day you are actually voting for electors when you vote for candidates on your ballot. Sometimes, the electors name will appear on the ballot in some way paired with the candidate’s name, but not always.
How do candidates “win” the electors?
The winning candidate in each state – with the exception of Maine and Nebraska – is awarded all of the state’s electors. In Maine and Nebraska, there is a proportional distribution of the electors.
Do the electors have to vote for the person who won the popular their state?
Nope. There are no Constitutional provisions that force electors to vote for the candidate who wins the popular vote in the state. However, states can and some do require electors to vote the way the state does, voting for the candidate who wins the popular vote. It is unusual for an elector to vote against his or her state’s popular vote.
In 21 states there is no legal requirement for electors to cast their ballot for a specific candidate. Electors in the other states are either bound by law or by signing a pledge to vote for a specific candidate – the candidate who won the popular vote.
What happens after election day?
After the election, the state’s governor prepares something called a “Certificate of Ascertainment.” That document lists all the candidates on the ballot in that governor’s state, along with the names of the electors assigned to each candidate. The certificate identifies the winner in the state and gives the name of the electors who will represent the state at the electors meeting in December. Certificates of Ascertainment are sent to the Congress and the National Archives as part of the official records of the presidential election.
Then what?
Electors meet the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December after the presidential election. The electors meet in their respective states. They cast and count their votes for the offices of president and vice president. They do this on separate ballots. That vote is recorded on a “Certificate of Vote,” and it, like the “Certificate of Ascertainment” is sent to the Congress and the National Archives as part of the official record of the 2016 election.
What does Congress do with the certificate?
They meet on Jan. 6 in a joint session of Congress to count the votes submitted. When they are finished, they announced the winners.
What happens if no one gets a majority of Electoral College votes?
Should no candidate get a majority of electoral votes, the election shifts to the House of Representatives. In the House chamber, each state would cast one vote for one of the top three vote contenders. Whoever wins a majority of states wins the election. To pick a vice president, the same process happens, only it would take place in the Senate.
Can you lose the popular vote and win the electoral college vote?
Yes, you can. In 2000, George W. Bush had fewer popular votes but more electoral votes so he became president.
Can a third party candidate be considered?
Yes. The Constitution does not distinguish between parties in the rules for the Electoral College. If a third-party candidate gets more votes than a Democrat or Republican in a state, it's that person who will recieve the votes in the process.
Why does the Electoral College matter?
The Electoral College matters because the outcome of the process determines the who is the president and vice president of the United States. While it takes the popular vote in consideration it also ensures that states with smaller populations are on equal footing with larger states when it comes to choosing a leader.
If you want to be your own king (or queen) maker, click here to check out The Washington Post Electoral College Map simulator.
Sources: The National Archives; history.com
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